Sunk costs are sunk ... what was paid (and indeed what is owed) shouldn't be a material consideration in the fair price of the stadium. What is relevant is the projected cashflow from the stadium, appropriately discounted, plus an estimate of the redevelopment option and any uplift from change of use. That's what a rational investor would pay.
Kassam can set a reserve price based on his costs, but that doesn't make it rational to pay it. Indeed (and I recognise that I am straying into Boogie's territory) there's a strong case that, given the state of commercial real estate prices at the moment and concerns that we are at the peak of the cycle, this would be a rather foolish time to buy.
Stadium again
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Ancient Colin
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GodalmingYellow
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Re:
Kassam may have put a position in the public domain, but that doesn't mean it is an accurate reflection of the real position."ty cobb" wrote:This all seems a little worrying to me. FK said at the last forum that he didn't want to sell the club without the ground as he thought it was important they were kept together and if it took a little while for funding to be found then so be it.
He is also now saying that a price had been agreed and that price remains the same.
So who is mucking who about here? FK has now put his position into the public domain, both at a fans forum and now with this letter. WPL don't appear to want to comment on the issue beyond it's a medium term goal and they won't hold a fans forum. If they feel the price is too high then they should say so and should not have agreed to it in the first place. If FK is lying then they should also say so. It would appear to me they have decided that they don't want to buy the stadium at the moment.
I feel it is vital for a club to own their own stadium and the money generated from the stadium to go towards the club otherwise we can only achieve so much in the long term. There are too many examples of clubs being separated from their ground ending in disaster to ignore this issue.
I also feel that the leisure complex should be taken into account in any 'price' set by FK as this was only able to be built as a result of the stadium going through and FK has said that this was built to help finance OUFC. If the asking price of the stadium is simply what FK has paid for it then I think it is overpriced as he is getting a profitable leisure complex in a very affluent city for free on the back of saving the club.
I would have no problem with waiting for the price to come down, although I would have thought with the level we are at it can only go up, but surely something must be said by Merry about this issue.
By writing to FK it would suggest to me at least that OxVox don't really know what is going on with the stadium, if they did they would be
a) happy that WPL are pursing the right strategy and not take this action
b) feel that FK is being unreasonable and hopefully starting a campaign to out pressure on him to sell - lets not forgot many Oxford fans use the Ozone complex.
I am also not surprised that FK gave such a curt reply after the very public OxVox campaign to get rid of him last year.
The only positive that I can see from all of this is that WPL are involved in the club for the good of OUFC. Dodgy owners usually only come into football and look to make money off the back of the ground as at this level there is not much money to be made elsewhere.
However, I still feel they need to make their position clear, they do not hold a forum, do not appear to keep OxVox up to date with the details involved and do not make any useful comments on the subject. FK has and I feel it is now time they also did.
There is probably an agreement of commercial confidentiality in the negotiations which prevents either side from spilling the beans. That is fair enough, until we get to the point where sufficient time has passed for negotiations to have been completed and an offer made. The question is when do we consider that point has been reached, and I don't think we are far away from that point.
Its a little naiive to say that WPL should publicly call Kassam a liar if he is not being honest in public. That would spell the end of negotiations completely, and probably forever given Kassam's approach.
So a conclusion that WPL have decided not to buy the stadium, whilst a possibility, is not one we can draw yet.
You might think it reasonable for Kassam to take into consideration the other benefits he has gained in the overall development, but I would be very certain that will not happen. Kassam's aim will be to maximise what he can get form the deal, irrelevant of what has happened elsewhere.
Last edited by GodalmingYellow on Thu Feb 22, 2007 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GodalmingYellow
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Re:
There seems to be a text limit to these messages, which doesn't help if there is a long quote, especially given my history for writing reams of rubbish 
To continue:
Its very easy to say Kassam should sell at a commercial rate too, but he won't. He will sell when he feels he has got the most he possibly can from the deal, and if he doesn't cover his costs, his view will be why should I sell at all?
I'm not best pleased with the publicly known position of OxVox either. OxVox need to push a bit harder on both sides of the deal and explain to us in the very least if they are aware of reasons for the hold up and secrecy (without necessarily telling us what those reasons are) and if these are reasons we should have concerns about.
I'm not pleased with the publicly known position of WPL either. Their cards on this and other issues are being retained too close to their corporate chest, leading to questions as to why. Remember they are only custodians of the club. It is our club and we have a right to know and understand why they are so secretive and why the need for the long delay before makign an offer for the stadium. We can be told these pieces of information without breaking commercial confidentiality.
And I'm not happy with Kassam's position either. But no real surprises there. He will never change his style.
To continue:
Its very easy to say Kassam should sell at a commercial rate too, but he won't. He will sell when he feels he has got the most he possibly can from the deal, and if he doesn't cover his costs, his view will be why should I sell at all?
I'm not best pleased with the publicly known position of OxVox either. OxVox need to push a bit harder on both sides of the deal and explain to us in the very least if they are aware of reasons for the hold up and secrecy (without necessarily telling us what those reasons are) and if these are reasons we should have concerns about.
I'm not pleased with the publicly known position of WPL either. Their cards on this and other issues are being retained too close to their corporate chest, leading to questions as to why. Remember they are only custodians of the club. It is our club and we have a right to know and understand why they are so secretive and why the need for the long delay before makign an offer for the stadium. We can be told these pieces of information without breaking commercial confidentiality.
And I'm not happy with Kassam's position either. But no real surprises there. He will never change his style.
Re:
Which is effectively the point I'm hinting at. Kassam wants to recoup what he paid for it which is a lot more than it is worth to a buyer based on rental savings, revenue generation, etc. The result of this is an impasse which can't be good for the football club in the long term."Ancient Colin" wrote:Sunk costs are sunk ... what was paid (and indeed what is owed) shouldn't be a material consideration in the fair price of the stadium. What is relevant is the projected cashflow from the stadium, appropriately discounted, plus an estimate of the redevelopment option and any uplift from change of use. That's what a rational investor would pay.
Kassam can set a reserve price based on his costs, but that doesn't make it rational to pay it. Indeed (and I recognise that I am straying into Boogie's territory) there's a strong case that, given the state of commercial real estate prices at the moment and concerns that we are at the peak of the cycle, this would be a rather foolish time to buy.
The best case scenario means the club continues to rent the stadium for football use but has little or no opportunity to generate non football related revenues which is what the new stadium was all about. The worst case scenario is that at some point Kassam starts looking at alternative plans for the stadium and the land it sits on.
The hope is that the land deal with the City Council ties his hands sufficiently that other uses for the land are not possible and this is what FOUL asked the City Council to ensure but they never let us see a contract to confirm it was done and it was wartertight. With the arrival of the freedom of information act a request was made to see the contract but this was refused on the grounds of commercial confidentiality. Since then the Information Comissioner has decided that the council were wrong to refuse on these (or any other) grounds and that they should release the information. This was almost 3 weeks ago but they still haven't announced what they plan to do. It is entirely possible that they will waste council tax payers in appealing this decision and set back the timetable by many more months.
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I don't disagree with what you say AC but we must not presume that their is only one potential purchaser."Ancient Colin" wrote:Sunk costs are sunk ... what was paid (and indeed what is owed) shouldn't be a material consideration in the fair price of the stadium. What is relevant is the projected cashflow from the stadium, appropriately discounted, plus an estimate of the redevelopment option and any uplift from change of use. That's what a rational investor would pay.
Kassam can set a reserve price based on his costs, but that doesn't make it rational to pay it. Indeed (and I recognise that I am straying into Boogie's territory) there's a strong case that, given the state of commercial real estate prices at the moment and concerns that we are at the peak of the cycle, this would be a rather foolish time to buy.
If another organisation wanted to build a similar building in this region itwould cost them lots of time and probaly considerably more than 12 million to build.
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GodalmingYellow
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Re:
Would they even get permission for a stadium of this size? It took OUFC long enough and the club were established."DLT" wrote:I don't disagree with what you say AC but we must not presume that their is only one potential purchaser."Ancient Colin" wrote:Sunk costs are sunk ... what was paid (and indeed what is owed) shouldn't be a material consideration in the fair price of the stadium. What is relevant is the projected cashflow from the stadium, appropriately discounted, plus an estimate of the redevelopment option and any uplift from change of use. That's what a rational investor would pay.
Kassam can set a reserve price based on his costs, but that doesn't make it rational to pay it. Indeed (and I recognise that I am straying into Boogie's territory) there's a strong case that, given the state of commercial real estate prices at the moment and concerns that we are at the peak of the cycle, this would be a rather foolish time to buy.
If another organisation wanted to build a similar building in this region itwould cost them lots of time and probaly considerably more than 12 million to build.
'Its a little naiive to say that WPL should publicly call Kassam a liar if he is not being honest in public. That would spell the end of negotiations completely, and probably forever given Kassam's approach. '
Well FK has come out and said he wants the stadium to be sold with the football club, a price was agreed and this has not changed.
Therefore if he is not lying the delay is up to WPL. If this is not the case WPL should come out and say this, not to call him a liar as such but at the moment they are coming off looking worse in the stadium deal. People previously in 'the know' have always said that the dealy was down to Kassam - it would appear this is not the case if he is simply asking for what was agreed.
Of course if FK is not lying (and I don't think he is) then WPL can't really say much apart from
a) we don't want it at the moment
b) we can't afford it
Unless they can back (a) up with valid reasons I think either of these options will not be acceptable and is part of the reason why they are keeping quiet.
Well FK has come out and said he wants the stadium to be sold with the football club, a price was agreed and this has not changed.
Therefore if he is not lying the delay is up to WPL. If this is not the case WPL should come out and say this, not to call him a liar as such but at the moment they are coming off looking worse in the stadium deal. People previously in 'the know' have always said that the dealy was down to Kassam - it would appear this is not the case if he is simply asking for what was agreed.
Of course if FK is not lying (and I don't think he is) then WPL can't really say much apart from
a) we don't want it at the moment
b) we can't afford it
Unless they can back (a) up with valid reasons I think either of these options will not be acceptable and is part of the reason why they are keeping quiet.
Re:
How do we know the OxVox newsletter is genuine - perhaps the same person that forged Kasam's letter has spoofed the OxVox web site and hijacked their mailing list. Even as we speak Trevor Lambert could be being held hostage."Snake" wrote:Are we/OxVox 100% sure that letter from FK is genuine?
Take a look at it again..
Well, I'll try and add a bit of comment, having managed to log in (asked for a new password Martin, the system hasn't sent one, and I managed to find my old one in the meantime by guesswork...
If anyone hasn’t seen the full piece with the letters, it’s now up on the OxVox website www.oxvox.org.uk , seeing as all the members have now got a copy (we do have postal members so it takes a few days to ensure everyone’s got it).
First to state the obvious (always a good place to start). The stadium is an important topic. Not especially urgent (though as time goes on it becomes more so), but certainly important.
From the OxVox point of view we are doing our best to find out as much information as we can on both sides and convey it, along with some context as we see it. There will I hope be more from the club shortly.
Just a few comments from me. Colin points out that sunk costs are just that, sunk, and the price now should be based on what the stadium and conference centre represents as an asset. That as I understand it is the normal way of looking at things from a business perspective. However as Mally points out FK bless him seems unlikely to look at things that way. I don't think we missed the point Mally, the point is only too clear. I assume we all want the stadium and club in common ownership but to be supportive of the notion of paying whatever it takes would be a nonsensical position.
Naturally the FK letter was thought about pretty carefully and of course it had to be put into the public domain otherwise OxVox rightly gets it in the neck for withholding information from its members. It was just a question of timing and doing it in an organised way, with comment, to all our members, and then generally to all fans, which we have now done. Introducing it into a post-AGM discussion was always open to the criticism (already voiced by two members on TiU who couldn’t attend) that important stuff was being discussed without their knowledge/opportunity to comment (especially given the small attendance AGMs attract) but it is a formal meeting and as such it was an appropriate forum.
I think though that DLT is making too much of the letter if he claims it puts much real information into the public domain. Phrases like ‘the price was agreed at the time’ are open to a lot of interpretation.
All I have time for now.
If anyone hasn’t seen the full piece with the letters, it’s now up on the OxVox website www.oxvox.org.uk , seeing as all the members have now got a copy (we do have postal members so it takes a few days to ensure everyone’s got it).
First to state the obvious (always a good place to start). The stadium is an important topic. Not especially urgent (though as time goes on it becomes more so), but certainly important.
From the OxVox point of view we are doing our best to find out as much information as we can on both sides and convey it, along with some context as we see it. There will I hope be more from the club shortly.
Just a few comments from me. Colin points out that sunk costs are just that, sunk, and the price now should be based on what the stadium and conference centre represents as an asset. That as I understand it is the normal way of looking at things from a business perspective. However as Mally points out FK bless him seems unlikely to look at things that way. I don't think we missed the point Mally, the point is only too clear. I assume we all want the stadium and club in common ownership but to be supportive of the notion of paying whatever it takes would be a nonsensical position.
Naturally the FK letter was thought about pretty carefully and of course it had to be put into the public domain otherwise OxVox rightly gets it in the neck for withholding information from its members. It was just a question of timing and doing it in an organised way, with comment, to all our members, and then generally to all fans, which we have now done. Introducing it into a post-AGM discussion was always open to the criticism (already voiced by two members on TiU who couldn’t attend) that important stuff was being discussed without their knowledge/opportunity to comment (especially given the small attendance AGMs attract) but it is a formal meeting and as such it was an appropriate forum.
I think though that DLT is making too much of the letter if he claims it puts much real information into the public domain. Phrases like ‘the price was agreed at the time’ are open to a lot of interpretation.
All I have time for now.
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GodalmingYellow
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Re:
We need a new banner for the next home game - "Free the Headington 1""Mally" wrote:Thank God for that! At least Trevor has been freed. Or has he?"trevor l" wrote:Are we 100% sure that that posting from Snake is genuine?
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Very good – so I think I should re-phrase that last posting of mine!"Mally" wrote:How do we know the OxVox newsletter is genuine - perhaps the same person that forged Kasam's letter has spoofed the OxVox web site and hijacked their mailing list. Even as we speak Trevor Lambert could be being held hostage."Snake" wrote:Are we/OxVox 100% sure that letter from FK is genuine?
Take a look at it again..
The letterhead is not the standard Firoka one - it does not carry the usual company registration details nor the VAT number.
It is not signed by FK and no one knows who actually signed it (unless Trevor can give us all an update now he’s finally joined us on here?) What we DO know is that when FK was in charge of the club any expenditure over and above a box of paperclips needed his signature before going out, so sending this kind of letter and explicitly asking for it to be put into the public domain (and a cc to Nick Merry) is unusual.
I’m not saying it’s been forged by someone outside of the Firoka organisation, just that if FK wanted to deny ever authorizing it then he could.
And besides, if he really was dictating a letter for one of his minions to type up don’t you think he’d want to have it waved under his nose just to check it before it went out, and if it was ok he’s simply get out his pen and sign it there and then?
In essence, I think he’s playing games with Nick Merry over the stadium purchase and that letter to OxVox is all part of it.
Just my opinion mind..
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Not if he was in Monaco and his minion was in Kings Cross"Snake" wrote:
And besides, if he really was dictating a letter for one of his minions to type up don’t you think he’d want to have it waved under his nose just to check it before it went out, and if it was ok he’s simply get out his pen and sign it there and then?
And one I agree with.In essence, I think he’s playing games with Nick Merry over the stadium purchase and that letter to OxVox is all part of it.
Just my opinion mind..