Competition for play-off places

[SmileyMan]

Here's a list before tonights games of who our competition for the playoff places is:

Teams that can finish above Oxford in

Dag &amp Red
York
Burton Albion
Stevenage
Exeter
Morecambe
Gravesend
Kidderminster
Weymouth
Northwich
Aldershot
Rushden &amp D'monds
Halifax

Teams that can still reach the playoffs
Stafford Rangers
Altrincham
Crawley Town
Forest Green
Woking
Tamworth
Grays Athletic

Teams out of playoff contention
Cambridge Utd
St Albans
Southport

Obviously, once the top list is down to four, then we're through. Currently there are thirteen. Oxford currently need 16 points from their remaining 18 to guarantee themselves a playoff place.

Halifax will fall out of the top group if they fail to beat Southport tonight.

Note that I have just used simple maximum totals for now - there's no point in doing all the permutations yet.

I'll keep updating the thread until we're safe in the playoffs.

[A-Ro]

Well done Smileyman - this is going to save me some time, this is just the sort of mundane stats I end up doing for myself at the end of each season.

[SteMerritt]

Here's a list before tonights games of who our

Halifax will fall out of the top group if they fail to beat Southport tonight.

Which they did fail to do

[SmileyMan]

Yep, always a pity to see a penalty rebound go in

Halifax's draw with Southport does indeed drop them out of the top group. Also, Stevenage's win over York means that we now only need 14 points from the last 6 games to guarantee a playoff place.

Teams that can finish above Oxford
Dag &amp Red
Stevenage
Morecambe
Burton Albion
York
Exeter
Gravesend
Kidderminster
Weymouth
Aldershot
Northwich
Rushden &amp D'monds

Teams that can still reach the playoffs
Halifax
Stafford Rangers
Forest Green
Crawley Town
Woking
Altrincham
Tamworth
Grays Athletic

Teams out of playoff contention
Cambridge Utd
St Albans
Southport

If we win on Saturday, and Rushden fail to beat Forest green, or we draw and they lose, then R&ampD will fall from the top group. Bad results for Stevenage, Morcambe, Burton, York and Exeter could potentially reduce the number of points we need - if York and Exeter both lose and we win, we'll be eight points shy of a guaranteed place!

Sadly, the Daggers need only eight points from seven games to secure the championship, and given their goal difference they could park the bus in front of goal for the rest of the season unless we start winning by three or four every game. Let's hope no-one there works this out!

NB - since Burton play York next Saturday, we probably need one less point than I've stated here, but I'm not 100% on the maths on that one, so I'll wait until after the game rather than do all the complicated permutations stuff.

[Myles Francis]

Of all those clubs who have a mathematical possibility of making the play-offs, how many do you think have a realistic chance? Personally, I don't think anyone below Gravesend has much of a shout, unless Aldershot beenfit from a bit of new manager syndrome and storm the run in.

With that in mind, I have had look at who has to play who. On paper, Burton and Gravesend have the easiest run-ins. Burton play us and York at the top end, Rushden in mid-table, and Halifax, Northwich, Grays, and Southport at the botton (4 of the bottom 6). Gravesend play York at the top, Forest Green and Altrincham in the middle, and Halifax, Northwich, St Albans, and Southport down the bottom (again 4 of the bottom 6).

We all know anything can happen when clubs are scrapping for relegation, but I'd expect both Burton and Gravesend to get at least 6 points from those 4 games. Makes a win against Burton look extra important.

[Resurrection Ox]

Of all those clubs who have a mathematical possibility of making the play-offs, how many do you think have a realistic chance? Personally, I don't think anyone below Gravesend has much of a shout, unless Aldershot beenfit from a bit of new manager syndrome and storm the run in.

With that in mind, I have had look at who has to play who. On paper, Burton and Gravesend have the easiest run-ins. Burton play us and York at the top end, Rushden in mid-table, and Halifax, Northwich, Grays, and Southport at the botton (4 of the bottom 6). Gravesend play York at the top, Forest Green and Altrincham in the middle, and Halifax, Northwich, St Albans, and Southport down the bottom (again 4 of the bottom 6).

We all know anything can happen when clubs are scrapping for relegation, but I'd expect both Burton and Gravesend to get at least 6 points from those 4 games. Makes a win against Burton look extra important.

Please feel free to shoot me down in flames if the disastrous happens but this is Anorak City Arizona chaps.

We are a shoe-in for the playoffs. The other sides in the top 7/8 are far too inconsistent.

Look at York ffs. They never win at home. (Oops neither do we.

[SmileyMan]

To trot out the old but useful cliche, the teams who are &quotin control of their own destiny&quot regarding the playoffs are, at the moment, D&ampR, us, Stevenage, Morcambe, Burton, York (if they beat Burton) and Exeter (after the York/Burton game they could be at least level on &quotpotential maximum points&quot with one of those two - given the goal differences I expect they'd prefer York to win that one).

Gravesend's only chance to take points off their rivals is against York this Saturday - then their run-in is all against teams below them until they end the season against D&ampR, who will presumably be champions by then. The flip side of course is that this should be easier, but they still need results to go their way.

Kidderminster have an outside chance because of their games in hand - if they can win their game away at Stevenage next week, and their home tie against Morecambe, then with a couple of other results going their way they might be able to do the dirty on Stevenage at the reverse tie on the last day of the season.

All the rest are too reliant on other results to be in with a shout at the moment, but there's still a long way to go.

[SmileyMan]

Probably not much call for anoraks in Arizona.

Much more chance of seeing a fat lady. And I can't hear any singing just yet......

[Paul Cooper]

Stevenage to me are one of the better teams of all of those we could play in the Play offs.

I do wonder though whether both Stevenage and Kiddy will suffer due to the fixture pile up they will have as well as the Trophy Final they will play presumably shortly.

[Mooro]

I had intended to post a not dissimilar thread yesterday, but our work internet link was down all day.

Anyway, the way I was looking at it was in terms of the lee-way that clubs have between the maximum they can get and the minimum they need to achieve a target, which for example in terms of catching us is currently the 71pts we already have.
The leeway number will diminish every time either they drop points or we gain points &amp once this number turns negative then they can no longer achieve that target (ie. catch us). Once there are less than four remaining (excl D&ampR), then we have qualified for the playoffs.

After the latest matches the current situation is as follows:
(32 – D&ampR)
16 – Stevenage
15 – Burton &amp Morecambe
14 – York
12 – Exeter
11 – G&ampN
10 – Kidderminster
8 – Weymouth
7 – Aldershot &amp Northwich
3 – R&ampD

For interest, in terms of the title the scores are:
7 – Oxford
5 – Stevenage
4 – Burton &amp Morecambe
3 – York
1 – Exeter
0 – G&ampN
which means that if on Saturday - Dagenham win, York draw with G&ampN and Stevenage, Burton, Morecambe &amp Exeter all lose, then only Oxford will be able to stop Dagenham taking the title.

[SmileyMan]

Well, that was a stinker of a game. The Daggers are now one win away from being champions. We can only win the championship if we win all our remaining games and they take 2 points or less from theirs. Not even I'm that optimistic.

Since Rushden won, they remain in the top group, but only just, and Weymouth's thumping by Cambridge has pushed them close to the edge. Northwich's win over the Kiddies has put both teams on level terms with Aldershot, all three needing to go on stellar runs now to recah the playoffs.

Gravesend's win over York puts them both equal at the bottom of the realistic contenders. A workmanlike win for Exeter has put them within touching distance of Stevenage, who's loss to Crawley means that they need to win all their games in hand to avoid dropping out of the race. Their loss was good news for Burton, who of course drew with us. The strongest contenders now are Morcambe, who have won three of their last four, and have a game in hand on us.

Our draw with Burton and the other results leaves us needing 11 points from the next 5 games to guarantee a playoff spot. Hopefully the other teams' games in hand will start unwinding well for us to reduce that tally.

Teams that can finish above Oxford
Dag &amp Red
Morecambe
Burton Albion
Stevenage
Exeter
York
Gravesend
Aldershot
Kidderminster
Northwich
Weymouth
Rushden &amp D'monds

Teams that can reach the playoffs
Halifax
Crawley Town
Stafford Rangers

Teams out of playoff contention
Forest Green
Grays Athletic
Woking
Altrincham
Tamworth
Cambridge Utd
St Albans
Southport

Since we're not playing on Tuesday, the results can only be good for us. If Rushden lose to Weymouth they will drop out of the top group of teams, but no-one else is in danger. However, there are potential banana skins for Morcambe, Exeter and Gravesend, all of which could give us some breathing room, while the Stevenage vs Kiddies game is probably best a draw for us.

[Mooro]

Using the leeway process, the situation in terms of catching us after Saturday is:

14 – Morecambe
12 – Stevenage &amp Burton
11 – Exeter
10 – G&ampN &amp York
6 – Aldershot, Kiddie &amp Northwich
4 – Weymouth
2 – R&ampD

which means it COULD quite easily be all sorted by the time we come back after Easter

In terms of the title, it is nearly all over:
2 – Oxford
1 – Morecambe
with rest out of the race….

[SmileyMan]

A good Tuesday night for us (hey, we weren't playing!). Exeter and Stevenage both losing means that we now only need 10 points from the remaining games, ie three wins and a draw. Exeter now need other results to go their way

Halifax's loss to Gravesend ended their wafer-thin hopes for a playoff place. No change in the top group of teams that can beat Oxford, but one win would eliminate Weymouth and Rushden from that group.

Looking forward to Saturday, Burton vs York is obvously the key game of the weekend. If Burton win, then it reduces our playoff target by at least a point, however if York win, it improves our prospects of a home tie in the second leg if we do get there.

Summary for Saturday:

• If Gravesend and York both win, then we still need 10 points.
• If either Gravesend or York fail to win, but one of them does, and Stevenage win, then we need 9 points.
• If both Gravesend and York lose, and either of Stevenage or Exeter fail to win, then we need 7 points.
• With any other set of results for these four teams, we'll need 8 points.

So, in the best scenario, if we also win against Northwich, we could be only four points away from a playoff place come 5pm on Saturday. Yay!

For the optimistic, we still need 13 points to guarantee us a home tie in the second leg, ie 2nd/3rd place. If Morcambe and Burton could both contrive to lose, it would help a lot in this respect, but of course Burton losing would help York (see above). I'm not going to tempt fate by doing the maths on this one.

[Mooro]

After Tuesday night the latest leeway position is as follows:

14 – Morecambe (5 left)
12 – Burton (6 left)
10 – G&ampN (6 left) &amp York (5 left)
9 – Stevenage (6 left)
8 – Exeter (5 left)
6 – Aldershot (6 left), Kiddie (7 left) &amp Northwich (10 left)
2 – R&ampD (7 left)
1 – Weymouth (5 left)

[Mooro]

Small crumbs of comfort after Saturday come in the news that many of the leeway numbers are still dropping despite our lack of points to the extent that two of the chasing pack have dropped out, leaving 9 clubs that can still overtake us:

12 – Morecambe (4 left)
10 - York (4 left)
9 – Burton (5 left)
8 – G&ampN (5 left) &amp Exeter (4 left)
7 – Stevenage (5 left)
6 – Northwich (9 left)
4 – Kiddie (6 left)
3 - Aldershot (5 left)

x – R&ampD &amp Weymouth