"YF Dan" wrote:1) Where did it all go wrong?
2) How much worse can it get?
3) How can we get out of this mess?
4) Will we ever turn the corner?
Answers, suggestions, comments, anything please. Here are my thoughts.
1) It went wrong when Herd overspent, and scarpered.
It started going wrong on the pitch when we sold Matty Elliott. Various other key moments include: Selling Dean Windass when we did the morale sapping damage limitation exercise at Arsenal the drubbing at Hull the frittering of funds on dubious Argentinian players and of course that fateful transfer day madness of Jim Smith.
2) We can still get relegated at least one more division.
3) I have no idea, other than starting again, how it can end positively. Even that is a huge gamble.
4) Please god, yes. This is based on hope, not any expectation.
It all started to go wrong when the stadium was hocked in the 70's to fund players and losses.
It was made worse by Maxwell underwriting costs the club could not afford in order for the club to have it's illustrious period.
Then it got worse when Maxwell got bored and wanted a bigger fish to fry.
Herd made the enormous blunders that set the club on the road to near bankruptcy, with his ill considered stadium funding.
Kassam reversed some of Herd's balls ups with a clever funding plan for the stadium and club.
The move to the new stadium, on the basis that Kassam originally sold the idea to us, should have ended the club's misery and would have inextricably linked the stadium to the club financially for at least 25 years.
But Kassam then ballsed it up by running the club badly and not sticking to the funding plan of directly subsidising the costs of OUFC with income from the commercial aspects of the deal.
Since then the club has had the millstone of rent being a very high proportion of its income, much higher than any club we have played against, and that has restricted the club's ability to finance itself properly. Had the original funding plan been retained, and the club run properly, I think we would be in the Champioship now.
Then a series of ill considered managerial appointments, coupled with short termism and rapid sackings accumulated large funding requirements and it has been a downward spiral since then.
It can get a whole lot worse. I've said many times that it is essential that the club be run on a basis that is affordable. Without that, as soon as Lenagan has had enough of pouring his money down the drain, the club becomes virtually unfundable. Debts, inherent losses and large rent, coupled with poor performances, expensive players and dwindling crowds is a terrible recipe.
Like Mally, I don't see how the club could be run with crowds below 3,000, and even at 3,500 it would take a shed load more of Lenagan's cash for survival.
My hope is that Lenagan will walk and write off his loans, and the club will be passed to the Trust for the fans, at nil cost and without debts. Even then, it would take a shed load of re-organisation and re-negotiation of contracts to keep the club going, and then players could only be signed with the club keeping within its income. Without that, the club will face a continual life of relying on the goodwill of wealthy fans or businessmen racking up large debts.
Will we ever turn the corner? Hmm. Difficult one. My fear is that it is already too late to save the club in its current form. Stadium purchase is not the answer unless it can be done at a price which ensures that the stadium company doesn't make losses. Kassam has no reason to agree to a rent reduction, though that avenue really needs to be explored heavily. And a move away from Minchery Farm will have to be considered as well if rent cannot be reduced. I would say the club has a 50% chance of survival in its present form, and perhaps only a 20% chance of ever returning to the Football League.
.