Well that was pretty dispiriting last night. I suppose in the big picture, if I'd told you a week ago that we'd get three points out of back-to-back home games against Sheff Utd and QPR, we'd have taken it - but to beat the former and then look so insipid against the latter is a punch to the guts.
My next game will be Easter Monday. I moved to Cardiff in September 2001 - a month after Oxford's first game at the Kas Stad - and only now are United finally playing a game in my adopted home city! Looking forward to finally doing a pub crawl that I've now been planning for 24 years.
Championship 2024/25
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Kairdiff Exile
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Ancient Colin
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Re: Championship 2024/25
Doomed, we're all doomed. I sense woe and catastrophe ...
May merit some serious discussion about Rowett: which players has he improved? How effective are the tactics and how much can he alter things to change games that are going wrong? THere's a bit of "he's working with a division one team" excusing going on in the other place but I'm struggling to see technical or tactical improvements bar a certain tightening at the back (at the expense of actually being able to score or threaten much).
May merit some serious discussion about Rowett: which players has he improved? How effective are the tactics and how much can he alter things to change games that are going wrong? THere's a bit of "he's working with a division one team" excusing going on in the other place but I'm struggling to see technical or tactical improvements bar a certain tightening at the back (at the expense of actually being able to score or threaten much).
Re: Championship 2024/25
Ten days ago if anyone had told me we'd pick up six points from the next three games I'd have bitten their hand off. Even more bizarrely to beat Sheffield United and Sheffield Wednesday, but lose midweek to QPR.
I can't see Luton or Plymouth picking up nine points from four games.
A bit more problematic is the last two match weeekends.
Derby-Hull
then
Hull-Pompey
Derby-Stoke
I can't see Luton or Plymouth picking up nine points from four games.
A bit more problematic is the last two match weeekends.
Derby-Hull
then
Hull-Pompey
Derby-Stoke
Re: Championship 2024/25
I still wonder during most matches where our goals will come from, other than corners, free kicks, and now long throws. That said, that is three 1-0 victories recently achieved via long throws and a strong defence. We did create more from open play against Wednesday than other matches recently - albeit against a side that has not won at home in 2025, I believe. Their keeper had to make far more significant saves than Cumming's one.
QPR was frustrating not only for the quality of the performance, but also because with only one exception that I can recall, we stuck to the long throw in routine when within range, even though they defended it very effectively. This "UltraRowettBall" (from Oxblogger) might be predictable (despite three teams recently failing to deal with it, including Vaulks's previous employers) but it is achieving what is needed.
Looking at the last 5 games, we are the only team in the bottom half of the table to have picked up three wins, with no team in those 12 having got as many as 9 points.
My concern is taking all of this and looking at next season. I cannot imagine any of the three teams coming down from the Prem doing a Luton, whilst Birmingham and Wrexham will surely be spending big. We shall have to invest and improve, if we are not only to survive again, but finish anywhere near mid-table. Whatever their performances currently, Wednesday survived last season and are much safer this year- despite having an owner who is draining the club of money and morale. To do what they, as an example, have done will surely require better tactics and a better overall playing staff.
Going back to your main point, AC, whilst Rowett looks like he may well keep us in this division, can we do better than survive next season with him, unless something changes?
QPR was frustrating not only for the quality of the performance, but also because with only one exception that I can recall, we stuck to the long throw in routine when within range, even though they defended it very effectively. This "UltraRowettBall" (from Oxblogger) might be predictable (despite three teams recently failing to deal with it, including Vaulks's previous employers) but it is achieving what is needed.
Looking at the last 5 games, we are the only team in the bottom half of the table to have picked up three wins, with no team in those 12 having got as many as 9 points.
My concern is taking all of this and looking at next season. I cannot imagine any of the three teams coming down from the Prem doing a Luton, whilst Birmingham and Wrexham will surely be spending big. We shall have to invest and improve, if we are not only to survive again, but finish anywhere near mid-table. Whatever their performances currently, Wednesday survived last season and are much safer this year- despite having an owner who is draining the club of money and morale. To do what they, as an example, have done will surely require better tactics and a better overall playing staff.
Going back to your main point, AC, whilst Rowett looks like he may well keep us in this division, can we do better than survive next season with him, unless something changes?
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Kairdiff Exile
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Re: Championship 2024/25
Bloody right. Had this exact conversation with a mate the other day. We got promoted in a season where the Third Division was weaker than it had been for a while, and we look more-likely-than-not to survive in the Second Division when it's weaker than it has been for a while. No shame in either of those things - you can only beat what's put in front of you and all that - but gravity will catch up with us next season. If we do secure safety, we have a massive summer ahead to recruit the right players. There's no sense trying to outspend our rivals, because that's a battle we'll lose. Far better to focus on securing up-and-comiing young talent on longer-term deals so that if we DON'T beat the drop we are well-placed to bounce straight back.Dr Bob wrote: ↑Sun Apr 13, 2025 4:30 pm My concern is taking all of this and looking at next season. I cannot imagine any of the three teams coming down from the Prem doing a Luton, whilst Birmingham and Wrexham will surely be spending big. We shall have to invest and improve, if we are not only to survive again, but finish anywhere near mid-table.
Re: Championship 2024/25
It does seem like the smaller teams generally only last a season or two in the Championship.Kairdiff Exile wrote: ↑Mon Apr 14, 2025 11:59 amBloody right. Had this exact conversation with a mate the other day. We got promoted in a season where the Third Division was weaker than it had been for a while, and we look more-likely-than-not to survive in the Second Division when it's weaker than it has been for a while. No shame in either of those things - you can only beat what's put in front of you and all that - but gravity will catch up with us next season. If we do secure safety, we have a massive summer ahead to recruit the right players. There's no sense trying to outspend our rivals, because that's a battle we'll lose. Far better to focus on securing up-and-comiing young talent on longer-term deals so that if we DON'T beat the drop we are well-placed to bounce straight back.Dr Bob wrote: ↑Sun Apr 13, 2025 4:30 pm My concern is taking all of this and looking at next season. I cannot imagine any of the three teams coming down from the Prem doing a Luton, whilst Birmingham and Wrexham will surely be spending big. We shall have to invest and improve, if we are not only to survive again, but finish anywhere near mid-table.
Rotherham, Wycombe, Burton, Peterborough, Derby, Barnsley etc
Maybe if there is a team with big points deductions or financial difficulties does it give the other small clubs a slight reprieve for a season.
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Kairdiff Exile
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Re: Championship 2024/25
Well, that was a thoroughly pleasant day - for me, anyway. Met some friends in Cardiff city centre, then a lovely walk through Bute Park for a coffee before stopping at a few of Pontcanna's better pubs and the Chapter Arts Centre for beers en-route to the Cardiff City Stadium. We were then bathed in sunshine as part of a crowd of over 3,000 noisy Oxford fans, and earned a solid point thanks to an absolute thunderbastard of a free-kick, which should be enough to see us safe, and in all likelihood relegated the home team in the process.
Caveats:
Anyway, notwithstanding that, I'm more than happy with that as a day out. I particularly liked the safe standing setup in the Cardiff City away end; first time I've experienced that, and I do hope we have something similar at the new stadium if/when it happens.
Was anyone else from this board at the game today?
Caveats:
- We did not play well AT ALL in that game. Ponderous on the ball, sat far too deep, invited City onto us for long spells, and barely touched the ball in their penalty area. A better side might have made us pay for it, but they didn't.
- Other results obviously do not help us - but I'd sooner have our points total than that of any of the sides below us, plus our two remaining games are against sides who will likely rest players and/or experiment.
- We really do need better forward options next season and a better idea of how to provide service for them.
Anyway, notwithstanding that, I'm more than happy with that as a day out. I particularly liked the safe standing setup in the Cardiff City away end; first time I've experienced that, and I do hope we have something similar at the new stadium if/when it happens.
Was anyone else from this board at the game today?
Re: Championship 2024/25
I was at the match.
The day before there were rumours of delays between Bristol Temple Meads and Cardiff central due to a bridge problem. On the day we got there OK. A decent ten carriage train from London Paddington via Reading where I got on. I'd already seen a throng of Oxford fans singing their way through Reading station with smoke bombs, but they must have either got a different train or were right at the front. More fans then got on at Slumdon via Didcot.
Sadly we stayed in the Spoons near the station rather than exploring. We then got the five minute train from Cardiff Central to Ninian Park. Looking at my bank it looks like the tap-in tap-out only cost 10p. [edit: updated to £3.40 must have been a provisional charge]
A really good turnout by the away fans. Rail seating / safe standing seems to be introduced in most Championship grounds now, which as a good proportion ofaway fans stand anyway so is not a bad thing. I might have said before, because it's not an unticketed terrace, and people tend to stand where they want rather than their allocated spot, it can be awkward getting space together if you leave it late entering the seats. Lovely sunny day. As for the match we didn't really seem to be in an attacking mood and rescued the day with a late-ish superb free kick from Cam Brannagan. A win would I think have almost guaranteed safety, but instead ALL the other results down the bottom went against us.
OK we possibly only need a point from the last two games, but I could see us with none. Then relying on other teams with nothing to play for to take points off the relegation rivals. After taking their foot off the pedal the last few weeks, I hear Sunderland are now looking at their squad for the play-offs so will likely be playing a strong team.
Getting back was more awkward. I knew there were signalling issues past Reading to London. Our 19:18 was running, but the 18:18 terminated at Bristol Parkway where they all got on our train. We stopped between stations for probably half an hour and I ended up missing the 20:54 home from Reading. They then cancelled the 21:35 due to lack of crew, and I had to wait another hour for the 22:35.
The day before there were rumours of delays between Bristol Temple Meads and Cardiff central due to a bridge problem. On the day we got there OK. A decent ten carriage train from London Paddington via Reading where I got on. I'd already seen a throng of Oxford fans singing their way through Reading station with smoke bombs, but they must have either got a different train or were right at the front. More fans then got on at Slumdon via Didcot.
Sadly we stayed in the Spoons near the station rather than exploring. We then got the five minute train from Cardiff Central to Ninian Park. Looking at my bank it looks like the tap-in tap-out only cost 10p. [edit: updated to £3.40 must have been a provisional charge]
A really good turnout by the away fans. Rail seating / safe standing seems to be introduced in most Championship grounds now, which as a good proportion ofaway fans stand anyway so is not a bad thing. I might have said before, because it's not an unticketed terrace, and people tend to stand where they want rather than their allocated spot, it can be awkward getting space together if you leave it late entering the seats. Lovely sunny day. As for the match we didn't really seem to be in an attacking mood and rescued the day with a late-ish superb free kick from Cam Brannagan. A win would I think have almost guaranteed safety, but instead ALL the other results down the bottom went against us.
OK we possibly only need a point from the last two games, but I could see us with none. Then relying on other teams with nothing to play for to take points off the relegation rivals. After taking their foot off the pedal the last few weeks, I hear Sunderland are now looking at their squad for the play-offs so will likely be playing a strong team.
Getting back was more awkward. I knew there were signalling issues past Reading to London. Our 19:18 was running, but the 18:18 terminated at Bristol Parkway where they all got on our train. We stopped between stations for probably half an hour and I ended up missing the 20:54 home from Reading. They then cancelled the 21:35 due to lack of crew, and I had to wait another hour for the 22:35.
Re: Championship 2024/25
What a performance from the team, fans, everybody that was against Sunderland. Appropriately, a Championship performance to confirm staying in the Championship. They really put out a strong team, but the way we went at them from the very start set the tone. Even when the intensity dropped towards the end, we stayed resolute defensively. It is easy to question why we have not played that way more often, but they are as human as all of us, and are we always totally effective in what we do, all the time? But when it really mattered, pulling that out of that bag, with nobody failing to deliver, was incredible.
Indeed, we have taken 7/12 points at home against the top 4, and Leeds only got their one goal from a move of pure class. Zero points away to those four, but was that unexpected? Two away wins all season (so far) is not great, but against those top teams maybe not such an issue.
OK, so there is still one game to go, but a couple of reflections on the season. First, there is something that has been nagging me about the lack of penalties this season. OK so some of the refereeing has been shockingly poor, but I have just checked and confirmed something else - of the 24 teams in the Championship, the team with the fewest touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area is OUFC. Harder to get a penalty if we spend less time with the ball in the opposition area.
And RowettBall sees us with less of the ball generally - we are just getting better at set pieces in particular and making the most of the possession we do have. Any how many years did it feel like went by with us seemingly incapable of scoring from a corner or free kick (or throw...
?
It has also been noticeable how many players from last year have made the step-up. Of the others, thumbs up to Helik, Nelson, Matos (of late), ter Avest and Vaulks. Those we have not seen enough of, maybe that raises questions about how they are training. Others have been inconsistent. Or maybe the added competition has forced the incumbents to up their game and, ultimately, keep their places? However this is cut, there are likely to be some pretty major departures this summer. Not sure if any of our current outward loanees will be retained (Currie? Negru?)
Bottom line - odds-on for the drop, probably the smallest stadium and budget in the division, and could finish near mid-table.
Next season, do we do a Plymouth or a Sheffield Wednesday/Blackburn? We have one advantage over the last two - brilliant owners. Nobody is perfect, but compared to Chansiri and the Venkys, our lot are pretty awesome!
Indeed, we have taken 7/12 points at home against the top 4, and Leeds only got their one goal from a move of pure class. Zero points away to those four, but was that unexpected? Two away wins all season (so far) is not great, but against those top teams maybe not such an issue.
OK, so there is still one game to go, but a couple of reflections on the season. First, there is something that has been nagging me about the lack of penalties this season. OK so some of the refereeing has been shockingly poor, but I have just checked and confirmed something else - of the 24 teams in the Championship, the team with the fewest touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area is OUFC. Harder to get a penalty if we spend less time with the ball in the opposition area.
And RowettBall sees us with less of the ball generally - we are just getting better at set pieces in particular and making the most of the possession we do have. Any how many years did it feel like went by with us seemingly incapable of scoring from a corner or free kick (or throw...
?It has also been noticeable how many players from last year have made the step-up. Of the others, thumbs up to Helik, Nelson, Matos (of late), ter Avest and Vaulks. Those we have not seen enough of, maybe that raises questions about how they are training. Others have been inconsistent. Or maybe the added competition has forced the incumbents to up their game and, ultimately, keep their places? However this is cut, there are likely to be some pretty major departures this summer. Not sure if any of our current outward loanees will be retained (Currie? Negru?)
Bottom line - odds-on for the drop, probably the smallest stadium and budget in the division, and could finish near mid-table.
Next season, do we do a Plymouth or a Sheffield Wednesday/Blackburn? We have one advantage over the last two - brilliant owners. Nobody is perfect, but compared to Chansiri and the Venkys, our lot are pretty awesome!
Re: Championship 2024/25
Well I wasn't expecting that result against Sunderland.
What a brilliant way to guarantee safety with a game to go.
We can leave the final match permutations to the other teams now. Basically one from five as Plymouth won't make up the GD.
I've just had a look at our top scorers for the season.
Harris 6
Leigh 5
Brown, Goodrham, Helik, Rodrigues, Scarlett 4.
That's three defenders in the top six.
One last away game at Swansea leaves me just short of one away ground in the Championship, Watford which I missed due to prior commitments.
What a brilliant way to guarantee safety with a game to go.
We can leave the final match permutations to the other teams now. Basically one from five as Plymouth won't make up the GD.
I've just had a look at our top scorers for the season.
Harris 6
Leigh 5
Brown, Goodrham, Helik, Rodrigues, Scarlett 4.
That's three defenders in the top six.
One last away game at Swansea leaves me just short of one away ground in the Championship, Watford which I missed due to prior commitments.
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Ancient Colin
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Re: Championship 2024/25
Nor me, naturally as Professor Pessimist. But that's the benefit of pessimism, you're expecting the worst, so it reduces the disappointment and trauma, but then just sometimes you get pleasantly surprised! So, as long as we avoid any points deductions ... oh, shut up Colin.
I've got a graph that models league points versus value of squad (Transfer Market's estimate, no idea how accurate it is). A really simple fit model is surprisingly accurate in terms of prediction: in terms of position we've outperformed but not in terms of fit - survival has come from some substantial underperformance by expensive squads. You can't rely on that though and to get higher up requires substantial squad investment - but constrainted by FFP rules, by low revenue streams and by uncertainty with the planning situation. Going to be another tense ride next year I suspect. But great to get that extra year and a potential opportunity to build.
Re: Championship 2024/25
For a season wrap-up.
The Championship was always going to be a tough call as favourites for relegation, probably the smallest squad budget, mostly a league 1 squad as well as the stadium capacity and revenue limitations. Competing against mostly established clubs with Championshiop squads and budgets to suit.
Our amazing start of three wins from six matches I think clouded my mind that *anyone* could win the Championship with a good manager, a few quality players and a togetherness in the squad Before my time, but however we got to the old first division.
I was shocked by Des's sacking as I and I assume many others thought he deserved at least a season swing at-the-bat for what he had achieved getting us up through the play-offs. However our owners are pumping in millions to keep the club running. I'm not sure how accurate, but apparently the buying price for a Championship club is £70M compared to £7M for L1. If they do look to offload, it has to be as a Championship club, so bringing in an established Championship manager in Rowett was needed. The previous two games vs Leeds and QPR were dire and a sign that the coaching manual doesn't get you points.
Rowett had a great start (against weaker teams) before falling away in Spring leaving us all looking at the permutations for the last few games. The win against Sunderland sealed survival a week early.
Yesterday at Swansea both teams had nothing to play for, but gave a good game. It was nice to see hundreds of Oxford fans getting on the train at Reading and Slumdon, as most of my exile games only have a few of us on any particular route.
Lots of fancy dress, smoke bombs at the stations. The game was well behaved with us applausing the fan Terry Coles pre-match, and also all clapping off Joe Allen when substituted on his retirement from pro football who had debuted at Swansea in 2007 at 16.
An entertaining game saw us equalise three times to finish 3-3.
As for the season.
I've loved seeing the Kassam sell out for all but two league games. Going to "proper" away grounds with every league game over 10,000 attendance, most around 20,000. We are on the "relegation threatened" for next season, but hopefully we can move up a bit to mid-table survival.
Oh and fingers crossed for the Triangle decision. I think there is enough positivity to sway it.
The Championship was always going to be a tough call as favourites for relegation, probably the smallest squad budget, mostly a league 1 squad as well as the stadium capacity and revenue limitations. Competing against mostly established clubs with Championshiop squads and budgets to suit.
Our amazing start of three wins from six matches I think clouded my mind that *anyone* could win the Championship with a good manager, a few quality players and a togetherness in the squad Before my time, but however we got to the old first division.
I was shocked by Des's sacking as I and I assume many others thought he deserved at least a season swing at-the-bat for what he had achieved getting us up through the play-offs. However our owners are pumping in millions to keep the club running. I'm not sure how accurate, but apparently the buying price for a Championship club is £70M compared to £7M for L1. If they do look to offload, it has to be as a Championship club, so bringing in an established Championship manager in Rowett was needed. The previous two games vs Leeds and QPR were dire and a sign that the coaching manual doesn't get you points.
Rowett had a great start (against weaker teams) before falling away in Spring leaving us all looking at the permutations for the last few games. The win against Sunderland sealed survival a week early.
Yesterday at Swansea both teams had nothing to play for, but gave a good game. It was nice to see hundreds of Oxford fans getting on the train at Reading and Slumdon, as most of my exile games only have a few of us on any particular route.
Lots of fancy dress, smoke bombs at the stations. The game was well behaved with us applausing the fan Terry Coles pre-match, and also all clapping off Joe Allen when substituted on his retirement from pro football who had debuted at Swansea in 2007 at 16.
An entertaining game saw us equalise three times to finish 3-3.
As for the season.
I've loved seeing the Kassam sell out for all but two league games. Going to "proper" away grounds with every league game over 10,000 attendance, most around 20,000. We are on the "relegation threatened" for next season, but hopefully we can move up a bit to mid-table survival.
Oh and fingers crossed for the Triangle decision. I think there is enough positivity to sway it.
Re: Championship 2024/25
Saturday was my wife's birthday so did not even bother asking for a pass. Missed the atmosphere but watching from afar it was a crazy match to end an amazing season. Given the downs in form as well as the ups under GR, I am staggered that had the season started when he joined we would have been in the top 10 (I think I heard). No disrespect, but before the season started a Foxes supporting friend said there were a lot of average teams in the division. Yep! I think it is telling that there were three teams at the top, then a cluster of potential play-off candidates, then almost all of the rest, with the issue then being who could average out the most, well, averagely, over the season. That said, the fact that with four games remaining every single team, mathematically, was capable of being promoted or relegated (I think there were three in the middle that could have done either), says everything about the fineness of most margins in this division.
Apart from the big drop-off in form under Des after a blistering start, we never fully threatened the bottom 3 again. And with the benefit (and total comfort) of hindsight, it was indeed true that even with the teams below us picking up form in the final run-in, none picked up so much that they could overtake us. And the atmosphere in the Stadium of Shite, especially in the last few weeks, was truly something to behold.
As a Stoke-supporting friend (and huge cricket nut) said last week, we cannot think about cricket until after 'next' Saturday. I was not so keen myself, but with Somerset finally managing a win this morning, even that is looking brighter. Just need the Spires to sort themselves out. But of course, the biggest fixture of all comes next month...
Apart from the big drop-off in form under Des after a blistering start, we never fully threatened the bottom 3 again. And with the benefit (and total comfort) of hindsight, it was indeed true that even with the teams below us picking up form in the final run-in, none picked up so much that they could overtake us. And the atmosphere in the Stadium of Shite, especially in the last few weeks, was truly something to behold.
As a Stoke-supporting friend (and huge cricket nut) said last week, we cannot think about cricket until after 'next' Saturday. I was not so keen myself, but with Somerset finally managing a win this morning, even that is looking brighter. Just need the Spires to sort themselves out. But of course, the biggest fixture of all comes next month...
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Ancient Colin
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Re: Championship 2024/25
I'm not sure you can post pictures but this is a graph of squad value against points. Just for clarity, the title's wrong, it's end of season points:
It's Transfer Market's estimate of value so probably is pretty rough (and there's a certain amount of endogeneity - leading sides' players are valued higher) but the message is fairly clear. We're fortunate that enough teams underperformed but anyone thinking next season isn't likely to be a struggle is possibly being overly optimistic.
- Squad value.png (81.12 KiB) Viewed 2980 times
Re: Championship 2024/25
Interesting that a £50M budget can get you anywhere from 44 to 66 points.Ancient Colin wrote: ↑Tue May 06, 2025 8:56 am I'm not sure you can post pictures but this is a graph of squad value against points. Just for clarity, the title's wrong, it's end of season points:
Squad value.png
It's Transfer Market's estimate of value so probably is pretty rough (and there's a certain amount of endogeneity - leading sides' players are valued higher) but the message is fairly clear. We're fortunate that enough teams underperformed but anyone thinking next season isn't likely to be a struggle is possibly being overly optimistic.
Or that survival on the 49 - 50 points can be a squad from £25m to £95M.
It looks like an upward pointing guitar to me. Most clubs clustered around the body, and a few further on up at the neck and towards the tuning knobs.