Where will we finish?

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recordmeister
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Where will we finish?

Post by recordmeister »

So, nine games to go. And some seriously tough ones in that run-in, too. I did the league predictor on ‘the fishy’ website and disappointingly it had us ending just outside the play-off, missing out by 5 points to Chairboys in last spot.

For me it shows how tight it is, and the fact that we’ve been in the play off positions for a while I hope does not breed complacency; some of the bigger games (Rotherham, MK, Sunderland) we *must* take points from. Esp MK and Sunderland which are real 6-pointers.

My final table:

Rotherham 106
Wigan 106
MK Dons 97
Sunderland 87
Shef Wed 87
Wycombe 84
Oxford 79
Plymouth 75
Ipswich 74
Pompy 74

Anyone else want to put forward predictions?
Isaac
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Re: Where will we finish?

Post by Isaac »

Rotherham are good, but it would be incredible if they won all of their last 10 games! Likewise Wigan w10, d1, l1 over their last 12. You're possibly being a little pessimistic recordmeister....

Traditionally 74 points is enough to get into the play-offs, but only just and this season there's a fairly distinct top/bottom half split in the league so it will likely require more than that. I think we'll get in the play-offs but it might go to the very end of the season. Either way it will be worth watching as we're good entertainment value at the moment and that's likely to increase once the tension goes up.

Generally I quite like this website for predictions
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... eague-one/

has us as a 71% chance of making the playoffs and a 23% chance of actually getting promoted as it stands. Seems about right to me.
slappy
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Re: Where will we finish?

Post by slappy »

Six midweek games this Tuesday, and several clubs will be looking to catch up on us from their game in hand (or pull away for MK Dons).
The only tricky looking one is Ipswich - Lincoln.

Let's hope for a few draws or defeats.
Kernow Yellow
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Re: Where will we finish?

Post by Kernow Yellow »

recordmeister wrote: Sun Mar 06, 2022 12:35 pm My final table:

Rotherham 106
Wigan 106
MK Dons 97
There is no way on earth that two teams will finish on 106 points, with a third on 97. It won't happen. Isaac's link has Rotherham finishing top on 95, though that is probably a little conservative.

Anyway, this has the potential to be the most authentically exciting end to a league season for Us since 2015. Last year we snuck into the playoffs very late against all expectations, and in 2020 it was all PPG calculated. And both times the resulting action played out in empty (or almost empty) grounds.

I'm certainly not counting any chickens, and I think it will go to the wire for quite a few teams, but I'm looking forward to it. And if we do get to the play-offs, I think we're better placed to do well in them than before. Assuming we can keep enough defenders fit and available of course.
Geoff
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Re: Where will we finish?

Post by Geoff »

I can't remember the last time TWO clubs exceeded 100 points in a season, although I wouldn't object if it meant them taking points away from our playoff opponents.

I'm feeling optimistic today and believe we will make the playoffs; but because of the way the season is playing out we may well need 80 points to achieve that.

Shrewsbury Town - Three points.
Ipswich Town - One point.
Morecambe - Three points.
Plymouth Argyle - One point.
Sunderland - One point.
Fleetwood Town - Three points.
Milton Keynes Dons - One point.
Rotherham United - Nil points.
Doncaster Rovers - Three points.

That would give 81 points so would allow for one draw to be a defeat.

Championship here we come!
Dr Bob
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Re: Where will we finish?

Post by Dr Bob »

Where will we finish? No idea, but it is going to be one helluva few weeks, with plenty of twists and turns still to go, I am sure. With that backline yesterday and general defensive vulnerability, we might have got away with things - Ipswich will not be so profligate - so I am hoping to get some first choice defenders back for next week. That said, it sounded like Mous was immense and Eastwood pulled off at least one amazing save. The injuries and illnesses have made it really hard for us, but the battling qualities we have been starting to show this season will be crucial. Yesterday's game also showed the strength in depth we have, at least in terms of attacking options. And whoever comes in fits in so well. I cannot say whether we shall make the playoffs again, but if we do it will have to be an amazing three games to go up. Bring it on!
Dr Bob
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Re: Where will we finish?

Post by Dr Bob »

The last two seasons, we could not be relied on to beat the other teams at the top - yet we still made the play-offs. Thanks to our run-in this time around, this same problem risks us failing to make the play-offs. Honestly, even before we played Ipswich I was concerned this would be the case. Today's result just makes me feel more certain that we shall not make it. And with the other teams around us that will also not go up, and with Derby coming down, it is only going to get (still) harder.
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