Smiley's Premiership betting tips
Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:13 pm
OK, I've developed a foolproof* betting system. It's only for the Premiership, because it consumes a megaton of data. Anyway, testing against historical data showed a potential profit, and the 'live' test last week turned in an impressive 80% profit (£50 to £89)
Note, this is based on twenty years' experience in data analysis and computer programming, not just sticking a pin in the newspaper. I thought I'd share it with you lovely Yellows, on the basis that if we all become stinking rich we can buy the club!
How does it work? For each match, it produces a statistically determined percentage chance of each result - home win, draw, away win. I then convert these to digital odds (as per Betfair and lots of others now), and pick the most likely outcome. The idea is that a bet is placed on anything where the odds available from the bookies are better than the prediction. This should ensure that the chance of a profit exceeds the chance of a loss, and spread over the ten Prem matches of an average weekend, an overall profit will be made.
For reference, here's how this worked last week (all were a £5 stake from my £50 float):
West Brom to beat Liverpool - Prediction 2.11 - Matched 4.40 - Won £17.00
West Ham to beat Aston Villa - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.28 - Won £6.40
Reading to beat Stoke - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.46 - Lost £5.00
Newcastle to beat Tottenham - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.68 - Won £8.40
Wigan to beat Chelsea - Prediction 2.01 - Matched 6.93 - Lost £5.00 (the system seems to rate Wigan very highly for some reason)
Everton to beat Man United - Prediction 2.48 - Matched 4.60 - Won £18.00
Everything else was a no bet - the results was too predictable
Total Winnings: £49.80, Total Loss £10.00, Profit £39.80
Interesting to note that the big profits came where unfancied but perfectly decent sides got a home result against top table opponents. These results don't happen often, but the odds are hugely unrepresentative of the actual chances.
OK, so without further ado, here's the predictions for this week, and where I've managed to place a bet, the odds that I got. You should be able to get something similar in most places - I'm not betting so much that I skew the market......yet!
Swansea to beat West Ham - Prediction 1.95 - Matched 2.14
Everton to beat Aston Villa - Prediction 1.74 - Matched 2.52
Man United to beat Fulham - Prediction 1.95 - No Match
Norwich to beat QPR - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.42
Wigan to beat Southampton - Prediction 2.19 - Matched 3.60
Sunderland to beat Reading - Prediction 2.11 - No Match
Tottenham to beat West Brom - Prediction 2.11 - No Match
Chelsea to beat Newcastle - Prediction 2.24 - No Match
Stoke to beat Arsenal - Prediction 2.84 - Matched 3.65
Man City to beat Liverpool - Prediction 1.41 - Matched 2.48 (nap)
Quick note on the Stoke/Arsenal game - the system actually gives the exact same odds of a home or away win, but there's much better value in betting on Stoke at home.
The nap selection is Man City to beat Liverpool at 2.48 (about 6/4) - if you only want to make one bet, make it that one. But the system works better if you spread it across multiple bets.
Hope you don't mind me posting this - if it works, well I'm happy to share the fortune around. Remember, don't bet more than you can afford.
* in tests, 8 out of 10 fools preferred it
Note, this is based on twenty years' experience in data analysis and computer programming, not just sticking a pin in the newspaper. I thought I'd share it with you lovely Yellows, on the basis that if we all become stinking rich we can buy the club!
How does it work? For each match, it produces a statistically determined percentage chance of each result - home win, draw, away win. I then convert these to digital odds (as per Betfair and lots of others now), and pick the most likely outcome. The idea is that a bet is placed on anything where the odds available from the bookies are better than the prediction. This should ensure that the chance of a profit exceeds the chance of a loss, and spread over the ten Prem matches of an average weekend, an overall profit will be made.
For reference, here's how this worked last week (all were a £5 stake from my £50 float):
West Brom to beat Liverpool - Prediction 2.11 - Matched 4.40 - Won £17.00
West Ham to beat Aston Villa - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.28 - Won £6.40
Reading to beat Stoke - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.46 - Lost £5.00
Newcastle to beat Tottenham - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.68 - Won £8.40
Wigan to beat Chelsea - Prediction 2.01 - Matched 6.93 - Lost £5.00 (the system seems to rate Wigan very highly for some reason)
Everton to beat Man United - Prediction 2.48 - Matched 4.60 - Won £18.00
Everything else was a no bet - the results was too predictable
Total Winnings: £49.80, Total Loss £10.00, Profit £39.80
Interesting to note that the big profits came where unfancied but perfectly decent sides got a home result against top table opponents. These results don't happen often, but the odds are hugely unrepresentative of the actual chances.
OK, so without further ado, here's the predictions for this week, and where I've managed to place a bet, the odds that I got. You should be able to get something similar in most places - I'm not betting so much that I skew the market......yet!
Swansea to beat West Ham - Prediction 1.95 - Matched 2.14
Everton to beat Aston Villa - Prediction 1.74 - Matched 2.52
Man United to beat Fulham - Prediction 1.95 - No Match
Norwich to beat QPR - Prediction 2.24 - Matched 2.42
Wigan to beat Southampton - Prediction 2.19 - Matched 3.60
Sunderland to beat Reading - Prediction 2.11 - No Match
Tottenham to beat West Brom - Prediction 2.11 - No Match
Chelsea to beat Newcastle - Prediction 2.24 - No Match
Stoke to beat Arsenal - Prediction 2.84 - Matched 3.65
Man City to beat Liverpool - Prediction 1.41 - Matched 2.48 (nap)
Quick note on the Stoke/Arsenal game - the system actually gives the exact same odds of a home or away win, but there's much better value in betting on Stoke at home.
The nap selection is Man City to beat Liverpool at 2.48 (about 6/4) - if you only want to make one bet, make it that one. But the system works better if you spread it across multiple bets.
Hope you don't mind me posting this - if it works, well I'm happy to share the fortune around. Remember, don't bet more than you can afford.
* in tests, 8 out of 10 fools preferred it