Away Form
Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 2:03 pm
5 points from last 5 away games. Something to worry about, or just a blip?
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Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 2:15 pm
Depends what the FGR result is. Anything other than a win will be something a bit more worrying than a blip.
Posted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:14 pm
A possible worry yes but I'd have taken an average of a point a game away from home at the start of the season. If we can win every home game and draw every away game that will do just fine from here on in. 96 points should do it easily.
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Posted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:50 pm
46 x an average 2pts per game = 92."Mally" wrote:A possible worry yes but I'd have taken an average of a point a game away from home at the start of the season. If we can win every home game and draw every away game that will do just fine from here on in. 96 points should do it easily.
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Posted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 9:25 pm
54 = 27 x an average 2 points per game"Dartford Ox" wrote:46 x an average 2pts per game = 92."Mally" wrote:A possible worry yes but I'd have taken an average of a point a game away from home at the start of the season. If we can win every home game and draw every away game that will do just fine from here on in. 96 points should do it easily.
43 = points already gained.
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97 points
i assume mally's been extra clever and checked that it's 13 home games and 14 away games to go = 53 points, but i can't be arsed to check.
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Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 10:39 am
Very true. The only problem is that we won't win every home game from here on in, so we have to average slightly more than 1 point per away game. However, we are still ahead of the 2 points per game target, so no need to start worrying yet."Mally" wrote:A possible worry yes but I'd have taken an average of a point a game away from home at the start of the season. If we can win every home game and draw every away game that will do just fine from here on in. 96 points should do it easily.
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Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 12:38 pm
Correct, although I don't think it's extra clever to base a prediction of points on actual games we have left."Matt D" wrote:54 = 27 x an average 2 points per game"Dartford Ox" wrote:46 x an average 2pts per game = 92."Mally" wrote:A possible worry yes but I'd have taken an average of a point a game away from home at the start of the season. If we can win every home game and draw every away game that will do just fine from here on in. 96 points should do it easily.
43 = points already gained.
__
97 points
i assume mally's been extra clever and checked that it's 13 home games and 14 away games to go = 53 points, but i can't be arsed to check.
Of course we should go out and try to win every game but if we were to average 1 point away and 3 at home then that would do it. Of course in reality we will win some away games and draw some of the home ones but it is possible to average 4 points for each virtual pair.
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Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 3:27 pm
Since we have been in the BSP. the most points gained by the 2nd place team is 86. Based on the premise that if you have 1 more point than the 2nd placed team then you must be 1st - then we really only need 87."Mally" wrote:Correct, although I don't think it's extra clever to base a prediction of points on actual games we have left."Matt D" wrote:54 = 27 x an average 2 points per game"Dartford Ox" wrote: 46 x an average 2pts per game = 92.
43 = points already gained.
__
97 points
i assume mally's been extra clever and checked that it's 13 home games and 14 away games to go = 53 points, but i can't be arsed to check.
Of course we should go out and try to win every game but if we were to average 1 point away and 3 at home then that would do it. Of course in reality we will win some away games and draw some of the home ones but it is possible to average 4 points for each virtual pair.
With only 44 to go, we are nearly half way there.
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Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 3:41 pm
"Dartford Ox" wrote:
Since we have been in the BSP. the most points gained by the 2nd place team is 86. Based on the premise that if you have 1 more point than the 2nd placed team then you must be 1st- then we really only need 87.
With only 44 to go, we are nearly half way there.
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Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 5:29 pm
one chicken, two chickens, three chickens...."slappy" wrote:"Dartford Ox" wrote:
Since we have been in the BSP. the most points gained by the 2nd place team is 86. Based on the premise that if you have 1 more point than the 2nd placed team then you must be 1st
With only 44 to go, we are nearly half way there.
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Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 6:34 pm
Prior to a few years ago, what was the highest score that the 22nd placed team had ever reached in League 2, and would 49 pts have beaten it?"Dartford Ox" wrote:Since we have been in the BSP. the most points gained by the 2nd place team is 86. Based on the premise that if you have 1 more point than the 2nd placed team then you must be 1st - then we really only need 87."Mally" wrote:Correct, although I don't think it's extra clever to base a prediction of points on actual games we have left."Matt D" wrote: 54 = 27 x an average 2 points per game
43 = points already gained.
__
97 points
i assume mally's been extra clever and checked that it's 13 home games and 14 away games to go = 53 points, but i can't be arsed to check.
Of course we should go out and try to win every game but if we were to average 1 point away and 3 at home then that would do it. Of course in reality we will win some away games and draw some of the home ones but it is possible to average 4 points for each virtual pair.
With only 44 to go, we are nearly half way there.
Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 6:41 pm
I wrote a program once which determined how many points were needed to guarantee being champions, guarantee a playoff place, avoid relegation etc.
Unfortunately I lost it in a job move, but I could probably re-write it. This far out from the end of the season it's pretty much pointless anyway.
Unfortunately I lost it in a job move, but I could probably re-write it. This far out from the end of the season it's pretty much pointless anyway.
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Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:01 am
OK it may have appeared that way - but thats not what was intended - just very poor phraseology on my part."Ascension Ox" wrote:one chicken, two chickens, three chickens...."slappy" wrote:"Dartford Ox" wrote:
Since we have been in the BSP. the most points gained by the 2nd place team is 86. Based on the premise that if you have 1 more point than the 2nd placed team then you must be 1st
With only 44 to go, we are nearly half way there.
Perhaps I should have said we, or any other club for that matter, could possibly achieve automatice promotion with 87 pts - and Oxford are not quite half way there.
I just happen to have a list of 'goals' I would like Oxford to achieve by the time we have played 23 games - and getting to 44 pts is the first of them. If and when we achieve that goal - I will tick that box and move on to the next goal - 46 pts in 23 matches - etc.
48 50 51 and 55 are also on my 'played 23' list.
But - one match at a time - the last 'target' may well have to be changed.
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 3:19 pm
We should also consider the distinct possibility that one of Stevenage, Kettering, Mansfield or Luton will score more than 86 points.
Stevenage & Kettering are averaging 2pts per game so over the season this makes 92pts.
Mansfield's average is slightly less and Luton's is slightly less again.
I'm gonna stick my neck on the block and say that 92 points is needed to win it. That means we need another 1.8pts per game or to put it another way, 14 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats (I think).
Stevenage & Kettering are averaging 2pts per game so over the season this makes 92pts.
Mansfield's average is slightly less and Luton's is slightly less again.
I'm gonna stick my neck on the block and say that 92 points is needed to win it. That means we need another 1.8pts per game or to put it another way, 14 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats (I think).
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Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 4:27 pm
Not sure what the chickens were doing, but I now see your premise that if you are ahead of the team in second, you must be first."Dartford Ox" wrote:OK it may have appeared that way - but thats not what was intended - just very poor phraseology on my part."Ascension Ox" wrote:one chicken, two chickens, three chickens...."slappy" wrote:
Perhaps I should have said we, or any other club for that matter, could possibly achieve automatice promotion with 87 pts - and Oxford are not quite half way there.
I just happen to have a list of 'goals' I would like Oxford to achieve by the time we have played 23 games - and getting to 44 pts is the first of them. If and when we achieve that goal - I will tick that box and move on to the next goal - 46 pts in 23 matches - etc.
48 50 51 and 55 are also on my 'played 23' list.
But - one match at a time - the last 'target' may well have to be changed.
I read it as if say Aldershot have 101, and Cambridge 86, then 87 is good enough.
However, 81 to 86 points is normally only good enough for a play-off position. I think this season will be fairly tight at the top with us, Kettering, Luton Mansfield, Stevenage and York all being there or thereabout. 87 might be enough, all depends how these top clubs do against each other and the lower teams.