When will our competitors start dropping points?

Boogie · Post by **Boogie** » Mon Feb 09, 2009 7:50 pm

Assuming we keep winning and it is relevant.....

Tuesday, 10 February 2009

Stevenage v Forest Green, 19:45
Torquay v Weymouth, 19:45

Can't see it happening on Tuesday.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, 12 February 2009

Ebbsfleet United v Burton Albion, 19:45

That should kill off Ebbsfleet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, 14 February 2009

Cambridge Utd v Mansfield, 15:00

Maybe but are Mansfield coming up on the rails?

Eastbourne Borough v Crawley Town, 15:00

Likely that Crawley will lose this?

Salisbury v Histon, 15:00
Torquay v Altrincham, 15:00

Draws more than a possibility.

Weymouth v Stevenage, 15:00

Unlikely

Woking v Kettering, 15:00

Perhaps

Wrexham v Grays Athletic, 15:00

No chance

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, 15 February 2009

Kidderminster v Northwich, 14:00

No Chance.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, 17 February 2009

Burton Albion v Wrexham, 19:45

Come on Burton!

Mansfield v Kettering, 19:45

Yes, but see above.

Saturday, 21 February 2009

Crawley Town v Salisbury, 15:00

No chance.

Histon v Eastbourne Borough, 15:00

That should kill off Eastbourne.

Kettering v Torquay, 15:00

Draw likely and best result for us.

Lewes v Cambridge Utd, 15:00

Upset possible.

Doesn't look too helpful.

Mally · Post by **Mally** » Mon Feb 09, 2009 9:22 pm

Two or three could drop points but can you see Wrexham, Torquay, Kiddy and Crawley all dropping six more points than we do? Oh yes and two of them have played 4 - yes 4 - games less than us! Collectively they have 13 games in hand.

Of course if they all did go on the losing spree to end all losing sprees it would almost ceertainly see their opponents overtake us with all the extra points going begging.

No. Without the 5 points it isn't going to happen.

Snake · Post by **Snake** » Mon Feb 09, 2009 10:19 pm

&quotMally&quot wrote:No. Without the 5 points it isn't going to happen.

I tend to agree with you, Mally, given that the bookies are currently offering around 9-2 on Us making the play-offs.

However, there are now at least five realistic scenarios to the season’s end.

1. We miss out on the play-offs by more than 5 points.

2. We miss out on the play-offs by between 5 and 3 points (and we’ll all be wondering for ever what might have happened if it were not for Hutchgate).

3. We miss out on the play-offs by 1or 2 points (and we’ll all be wondering for ever what might have happened if we’d appealed).

4. We make the play-offs and go up.

5. We make the play-offs but don’t go up.

And if we all get any more bored on here because of the weather someone is sure to put up a poll on this issue.

Sideshow Rob · Post by **Sideshow Rob** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:21 am

&quotSnake&quot wrote:
&quotMally&quot wrote:No. Without the 5 points it isn't going to happen.
I tend to agree with you, Mally, given that the bookies are currently offering around 9-2 on Us making the play-offs.

However, there are now at least five realistic scenarios to the season’s end.

1. We miss out on the play-offs by more than 5 points.

2. We miss out on the play-offs by between 5 and 3 points (and we’ll all be wondering for ever what might have happened if it were not for Hutchgate).

3. We miss out on the play-offs by 1or 2 points (and we’ll all be wondering for ever what might have happened if we’d appealed).

4. We make the play-offs and go up.

5. We make the play-offs but don’t go up.

And if we all get any more bored on here because of the weather someone is sure to put up a poll on this issue.

or

6. Crawley beat us to the last play off point because they win their appeal.

Dr Bob · Post by **Dr Bob** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:27 am

Or we miss out by 5 points or less, but are able to recognise that, collectively, points dropped against the likes of Weymouth at home (3 points), Woking at home (1 point), Crawley at home (let us be generous and say 1 point), Lewes away (3 points), Altrincham away (3 points), Grays away (3 points).......[you get the idea] will have been far more significant for our season than 5 points lost in a committee room in Birmingham.

Dr Bob · Post by **Dr Bob** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:43 am

Here's a different way of looking at things. If every team averages the number of points per game in their remaining fixtures that they have achieved thus far, we would finish in 10th. If everyone does except us (hey, it is an over-simplification but I have proper work to do as well...

, we would need to average 2.46666 points per game to make it into the final play-off place. If any of our competitors drops points (especially Kidderminster, who under my first calculation are in the final play-off place), our points required falls. Just something to add into the mix. BTW According to Confguide.com, the current form tables, showing the last 8 matches, has us second to Burton, with an average of 2.37 points per game. Kiddie's figure of 1.62 compares with a season average to date of 1.75. Must stop now. Too many scenarios to consider, too little time.

GodalmingYellow · Post by **GodalmingYellow** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:07 pm

There is always an inherent assumption that teams with games in hand will win them, but that doesn't stack up.

No only would they drop points just in the normal course of events, but some of those teams will (possibly he says fatally not having checked) have to play eac other, and they will have to play us, both of which can give us a bit more of an advantage if the results go for us.

The fat lady is still only in her warm up routine, and may yet suffer from a sore throat.

Matt D · Post by **Matt D** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 1:53 pm

garry hill has resigned, by the way.

SmileyMan · Post by **SmileyMan** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:14 pm

I think it'll be closer than anyone dares hope, but we won't make it.7

In answer to the original question, unfortunately for us, one of our competitors isn't OUFC, who are always guaranteed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Mooro · Post by **Mooro** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 3:35 pm

I’ve taken a look at the remaining fixtures to come up with a picture of what the table will look like come the end of the season. As trying to predict each match on its own would prove timely and highly subjective, I’ve instead used a standard method of predicting results:
- Split clubs into three groups (top/middle/bottom), then assumed
- Top vrs Top would be a draw,
- Top home to Mid/Bottom is a win,
- Top away to Mid is a draw,
- Top away to bottom is a win.

Using this method, the current final table would be:
1 – Burton 94pts (||32)
2 – Histon 91pts (||27)
3 – Torquay 88pt (||29)
4 – Wrexham 86pts (||33)
5 – Cambridge 86pts (||23)
6 – Kiddie 81pts (||20)
7 – Kettering 79pts (||19)
8 – Stevenage 73pts (||14)
9 – Crawley 72pts (||24) (incl -4)
10 – OUFC 71pts (||15) (incl -5)

It is not perfect (and has in the past slightly overestimated the final result), as it ignores a number of individual issues (congestion/squad size/home&ampaway form/relegation battles raising their game late season/freak results etc), but it still gives a reasonable indication of what is likely to happen…ie. that four clubs are strongly placed for the playoffs, two others have a chance, while three have a lot to do/are all but kidding themselves (with or without deductions).

In practice I can see Histon and Kettering falling off the pace due to congestion/small squads, particularly the latter who already face doubling up midweek fixtures.
If I remember I shall come back to revisit this to see how close to the final positions this is...

Dr Bob · Post by **Dr Bob** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 3:46 pm

Well, this is the same top 10 as I came up with on my initial run, using a totally different methodology. I had the teams in 3/4, 5/6 and 8/9 reversed, but no major differences (except where the 5/6 reversal puts a different team in the last play-off place). What I think this does more than anything else is show how tough it will be from here for Oxford to get into the play-offs (as if we did not know that already). Not impossible, of course - merely extremely unlikely.

Ascension Ox · Post by **Ascension Ox** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:36 pm

&quotMooro&quot wrote:I’ve taken a look at the remaining fixtures to come up with a picture of what the table will look like come the end of the season. As trying to predict each match on its own would prove timely and highly subjective, I’ve instead used a standard method of predicting results:
- Split clubs into three groups (top/middle/bottom), then assumed
- Top vrs Top would be a draw,
- Top home to Mid/Bottom is a win,
- Top away to Mid is a draw,
- Top away to bottom is a win.

Using this method, the current final table would be:
1 – Burton 94pts (||32)
2 – Histon 91pts (||27)
3 – Torquay 88pt (||29)
4 – Wrexham 86pts (||33)
5 – Cambridge 86pts (||23)
6 – Kiddie 81pts (||20)
7 – Kettering 79pts (||19)
8 – Stevenage 73pts (||14)
9 – Crawley 72pts (||24) (incl -4)
10 – OUFC 71pts (||15) (incl -5)

It is not perfect (and has in the past slightly overestimated the final result), as it ignores a number of individual issues (congestion/squad size/home&ampaway form/relegation battles raising their game late season/freak results etc), but it still gives a reasonable indication of what is likely to happen…ie. that four clubs are strongly placed for the playoffs, two others have a chance, while three have a lot to do/are all but kidding themselves (with or without deductions).

In practice I can see Histon and Kettering falling off the pace due to congestion/small squads, particularly the latter who already face doubling up midweek fixtures.
If I remember I shall come back to revisit this to see how close to the final positions this is...

Very nice but it IGNORES FORM!

I said earlier this season we would finish sixth. I stand by my prediction.

We willl miss out on the playoffs by 4 points. Frost will descend at the club.

Snake · Post by **Snake** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 9:34 pm

Depends how long a run of form your referring to. If it’s the last 31 games then we ain’t going up.

However, being as there is absolutely nothing to blog about tonight regarding OUFC here is my quick ‘back of a fag packet’ calculation based on the last six games played. Happy if someone wants to do the last 12 games played, or whatever. Link below to the stats if anyone wants to be more scientific.

http://www.footymad.net/football-form-tables/?divno=43

1.Burton 100
============
2.Stevenage 95
3.Wrexham 82
4.Torquay 80
5.Histon 77
============
6.Oxford 76
7.Cambridge 72

This includes our -5 points, and Crawley don't feature on current form.

Ancient Colin · Post by **Ancient Colin** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:09 pm

Well, so that's three points dropped by Turkey this evening, so that's a start ...

Boogie · Post by **Boogie** » Wed Feb 11, 2009 9:25 am

An enexpected but welcome start I think we would all agree.

Rage Online

When will our competitors start dropping points?

When will our competitors start dropping points?

Re:

Re:

Re: