Promo or no-no?

[Hog]

The poll (though it could have been better worded) is a no brainer so I’m going for the play offs. And if it helps I’ve been to 7 Finals and never seen any of my teams lose and I’d be gutted to miss out on what has become an annual trip to Wembley. Keep the faith...

That post could have been better worded so ...

[YF Dan]

The last category will no doubt get at least one vote when YF Dan sees this

Incorrect, Mr B. I was the first to vote, and I voted play-offs.

[Snake]

The poll (though it could have been better worded) is a no brainer so I’m going for the play offs. And if it helps I’ve been to 7 Finals and never seen any of my teams lose and I’d be gutted to miss out on what has become an annual trip to Wembley. Keep the faith...

That post could have been better worded so ...

Do you agree that the poll should be closed after 7 days, or perhaps that bit could be better worded?

[GodalmingYellow]

The thing is, even if we do get promoted what are our chances of surviving in a higher division with the current squad? Does anyone have a list of the current contract situation for each member of the squad? Who is contracted beyond the end of this season and who isn't? Would it be in the best interests of some players not to get promoted? For instance would Beano be offered a L1 deal? Would Rigg? Would Whing?

If someone does have a list it would be interesting to see opinions on who we would keep/release depending on the division. Presumably Smalley has already been told ...

I've got an Excel spreadsheet with the contract start and finish dates on if you want a copy.

[Hog]

Thanks GY. If you have time perhaps you could post the details on here (perhaps in a new thread) and people could voice their opinions on who they would like (or expect) to be retained depending on what division we're in next season? It might make an interesting if ultimately futile debate!

[A-Ro]

I think we will get to the play offs but not get through so both three and four are appropriate responses. I voted four to keep the curve from being unduly optimistic.

[ty cobb]

Well I don't think the play offs are the best we can hope for or that automatic is the most likely.

I think the best we can hope for is Champions (players return from injury we sort our home form out) but the play offs are the most likely.

[slappy]

Looks like a poll from the Oxford Mail school of poll making so it's pointless even picking.

Barring complete collapses or incredible runs elsewhere, the current top eight looks likely to stay the top eight at end of season. So the Play-offs are likely. I think one of Scunthorpe, Rochdale, Chesterfield will be champions. And the other seven will all be in and out of the autos by the end of the season, barring pephaps Newport who I think will take the last play-off spot.

So I'll go for probability of end of season position as 10% champions, 30% autos, 50% play-offs, and 10% outside of play-offs. If we make the play-offs, I'd go for a 33% chance of getting promoted via the play-offs.

[A-Ro]

So I'll go for probability of end of season position as 10% champions, 30% autos, 50% play-offs, and 10% outside of play-offs. If we make the play-offs, I'd go for a 33% chance of getting promoted via the play-offs.

A fair assesment I'd say.

[Radley Rambler]

Looks like a poll from the Oxford Mail school of poll making so it's pointless even picking.

Barring complete collapses or incredible runs elsewhere, the current top eight looks likely to stay the top eight at end of season. So the Play-offs are likely. I think one of Scunthorpe, Rochdale, Chesterfield will be champions. And the other seven will all be in and out of the autos by the end of the season, barring pephaps Newport who I think will take the last play-off spot.

So I'll go for probability of end of season position as 10% champions, 30% autos, 50% play-offs, and 10% outside of play-offs. If we make the play-offs, I'd go for a 33% chance of getting promoted via the play-offs.

Sounds about right but why a 33% chance of play-off success rather than 25% - what makes us more likely to succeed than any of the other sides in places 4-7?

[Kernow Yellow]

So I'll go for probability of end of season position as 10% champions, 30% autos, 50% play-offs, and 10% outside of play-offs. If we make the play-offs, I'd go for a 33% chance of getting promoted via the play-offs.

Personally I'd say the chances of finishing outside the play-offs are considerably higher than of finishing as champions. This OUFC team doesn't look like an outfit capable of topping a division at all to me, whereas it doesn't take a massive leap of imagination to see Us fall out of contention completely. Hope I'm wrong.

[GodalmingYellow]

Thanks GY. If you have time perhaps you could post the details on here (perhaps in a new thread) and people could voice their opinions on who they would like (or expect) to be retained depending on what division we're in next season? It might make an interesting if ultimately futile debate!

Happy to do so if someone can tell me how to embed a spreadsheet in a post.

[Jimski]

I'd probably go with:
Champions - 2%
Automatic (2nd or 3rd) - 10%
Play-offs - 50%
Below that - the balance (38%)

[slappy]

Yes the champions 10% and not play-offs 10% are a bit out. I'd guess again at 5% and 20%. (based on for instance Scunthorpe top, and seven teams scrapping it out for six other places, with us currently in the 7th place but not far behind with a game in hand).

My reasons for positivity that we aren't going to do our traditional slump:-
- 3 more away games than home games;
- Where fitness has helped us in scoring late goals, will help us last the second half of the season better than our rivals;
- returns for Potter, Whing, Meades, Kitson.

[Matt D]

i'd say play-offs are the most likely. play-offs were my hope before the season started. i wouldn't say it was all we could hope for though - the top of the table is still very tight and leading teams still turn in unexpected defeats.

yesterday's shenanigans are hardly helpful, and i would imagine it moves peoples' expectations for the season down a few notches now? it certainly does for me, as i don't expect Us to have a new permanent manager for a while (and i quite agree that recruitment of a new manager should not be rushed through just in order to have someone in place quickly).