Great result today

[GodalmingYellow]

It's not a choice between going out the cup and getting promotion though is it. Both our competitors are still in the competition so we would be in no worse a position had we progressed.

Getting promoted is more important than the FA trophy, I wanted both and I think we had the squad to achieve this.

We got knocked out the FA trophy early on last season and the season before - didn't result in promotion though and I don't think you can equate getting knocked out with having a positive impact on your league form, there are also very good arguments that staying in the competition would help the campaign as well - such as giving your second string games to keep them fresh, keeping a winning mentality, the excitement that a trip to Wembley would provide.

I tend to agree with Ty on this. I think we could easily have done both, but I don't think the will was there from wilder.

[Mally]

We could have done both and perhaps a stronger side on Saturday would have seen us through but there is always a risk of a cup run negatively impacting a promotion run. This isn't just forum talk it's a recognised issue at all levels of the game. Even the biggest clubs in the world have to prioritise.

Can you imagine the flack Wider would get if we'd put out a full strength side and key players got major injuries or a Wembley appearance meant the players lost focus on the real prize and our league form dipped dramatically? I'm not saying that either of these things would have happened just that there was a chance they could and perhaps Wilder's view was that it wasn't worth taking that chance.

[slappy]

Just thought I’d chip this statistic in, though it’s all according to the bookies.

We are 1-2 on to win the League, therefore 2-1 to not do so and end up in the play-offs.

Given that it’s more or less 50:50 in the play-off semi-finals it’s therefore a 4-1 chance we will end up at Wembley this season.

There, I hope that makes ty cobb really happy knowing there is a 1 in 5 chance of still going to Wembley this season.

I assume you mean 2-1 on rather than 1-2 on. Anyhow, your calcs are mixing up odds with probability, which aren't quite the same thing.

I made the same schoolboy error in my earlier post!!

According to the NLP on Sunday, we are odds 4/7 to win the title. That's a probability of 4/11. So to not win the title the odds are 7/4, which is a probabability of 7/11.

The chances of making a play off final having not won the title, ignoring side issues like drop in form, is 2/4, because 2 teams must get there out of 4.

So the probability of making Wembley this season is 7/11 x 2/4 = 14/44 or 7/22.

Even that analysis is dodgy as it assumes we don't drop out of the play off places as well, for which there must b a small probability, and it also uses bookies odds as the starting point which are not reliable as a source of probability.

It is just as well you are not a turf accountant. If we are odds on, it means we are more likely than not to win the league. If the odds were 4/7 ( as in 7 to 4 on), the probability of the event occuring = 7/(4||7) = 63.64%.
Hence probability of not winning the league = 36.36%, and with the assumed 50% chance of going through via the play-offs = 18% chance of going to Wembley this year.

[SmileyMan]

In betting parlance, the &quoton&quot reverses the order in which dividend and stake are stated. So &quot1-2 on&quot makes no sense (it's effectively 2-1), &quot2-1 on&quot means 1 pound for every 2 pound staked. Sometimes quoted as &quot1-2&quot, but never with the &quoton&quot as well.

Although confusingly, you could describe a 1-2 shot as &quotodds on&quot.

[Yorkie]

Sounds like Martin Foyle is beginning to regret their 'success'.....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... 529455.stm

York's postponed FAT tie at Barrow tonight has (predictably?) been postponed again because the pitch is still frozen. Apparently the official fallback date, tomorrow (Wed), is being skipped because snow is forecast tonight and tomorrow, and the game is now rescheduled for next Tuesday, 2 March.

So York not only have a blank evening tonight (when their scheduled - already postponed - league game at Mansfield might have gone ahead), next Tuesday's league fixture at Grays will also have to be rearranged. And if York beat Barrow, the FAT semi-finals will take precedence over two Saturday league games.

So Martin Foyle's concern is well-founded from the York point of view - and the Us could have been in a similar position. York fans recognise the risk to their promotion hopes too, as some of the comments on today's York Press report show:
http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/sport/502330 ... ht_is_off/

For the Us, though, fixture congestion for our rivals is no bad thing.

By the way, I went to York v Luton last week and witnessed the draw I'd hoped to see. The only disappointment was that the Oxford-Rushden result was announced as 0-0 at the end, but the local radio corrected that as I was leaving Bootham Crescent. A pleasing evening all round.

[GodalmingYellow]

Just thought I’d chip this statistic in, though it’s all according to the bookies.

We are 1-2 on to win the League, therefore 2-1 to not do so and end up in the play-offs.

Given that it’s more or less 50:50 in the play-off semi-finals it’s therefore a 4-1 chance we will end up at Wembley this season.

There, I hope that makes ty cobb really happy knowing there is a 1 in 5 chance of still going to Wembley this season.

I assume you mean 2-1 on rather than 1-2 on. Anyhow, your calcs are mixing up odds with probability, which aren't quite the same thing.

I made the same schoolboy error in my earlier post!!

According to the NLP on Sunday, we are odds 4/7 to win the title. That's a probability of 4/11. So to not win the title the odds are 7/4, which is a probabability of 7/11.

The chances of making a play off final having not won the title, ignoring side issues like drop in form, is 2/4, because 2 teams must get there out of 4.

So the probability of making Wembley this season is 7/11 x 2/4 = 14/44 or 7/22.

Even that analysis is dodgy as it assumes we don't drop out of the play off places as well, for which there must b a small probability, and it also uses bookies odds as the starting point which are not reliable as a source of probability.

It is just as well you are not a turf accountant. If we are odds on, it means we are more likely than not to win the league. If the odds were 4/7 ( as in 7 to 4 on), the probability of the event occuring = 7/(4||7) = 63.64%.
Hence probability of not winning the league = 36.36%, and with the assumed 50% chance of going through via the play-offs = 18% chance of going to Wembley this year.

Err no. You too are making the schoolboy error of mixing up odds with probability. Odds does not = probability.

Odds = probability divided by 1 minus probability. o=p/(1-p)

Therefore 4/7 = p/(1-p)
Therefore 4(1-p)/7=p
Therefore (4-4p)/7=p
Therefore 4-4p=7p
Therefore 11p=4
Therefore p=4/11

Simple algebra. The probability of us winning the title based on the bokies odds of 4/7 is 4/11.

Apology accepted Sloppy.

[SmileyMan]

Hate to disagree with you GY, especially given your job and my track record with the relegation maths, but 7-4 on is 63.6%

All odds-on chances are by definition better than evens, which is 50% (since 1:1 can be expressed as good ol' 50:50)

[GodalmingYellow]

Hate to disagree with you GY, especially given your job and my track record with the relegation maths, but 7-4 on is 63.6%

All odds-on chances are by definition better than evens, which is 50% (since 1:1 can be expressed as good ol' 50:50)

I can see why some are getting confused now. And there are 2 primary reasons:

Firstly, odds bookies give are the odds against the event happening, not the odds in favour of it happening, otherwise bookies would lose shed loads of money.

Secondly, odds are relative probabilities, not absolute probabilities.

I assure you my calcs are correct.

Odds of 4/7 does not mean a 7/11 chance of success per Sloppy's calcs, it means a 7/11 chance of failure, but a 4/11 chance of success as per my calcs.

If you don't believe me, go look it up, or ask a bookie.

[slappy]

Hmm, I think you have muddled yourself slightly GY. In the NLP last weekend the bookmaker was offering 4/7 on Oxford winning the title. This is also called 7 to 4 on. Or alternatively &quotthe odds are 7 to 4&quot (ie the probability is that Oxford will win 7 times to every 4 times they lose). So you need to invert the &quotbetting odds&quot to get to the &quotodds&quot that you plug into your equation.

[GodalmingYellow]

Hmm, I think you have muddled yourself slightly GY. In the NLP last weekend the bookmaker was offering 4/7 on Oxford winning the title. This is also called 7 to 4 on. Or alternatively &quotthe odds are 7 to 4&quot (ie the probability is that Oxford will win 7 times to every 4 times they lose). So you need to invert the &quotbetting odds&quot to get to the &quotodds&quot that you plug into your equation.

Probably explains why I never win at the bookies!!

Sorry Sloppy that's my mis-understanding of the bookies terminology of what they mean by odds against. I looked at your figures and they made sense but didn't seem to match what I thought the bookies meant by against. You can probably tell that I virtually never bet!! In which case you are right, the equation needs to be inverted and it agrees with your numbers.

Bee, bonnet.

[The OXman Cometh]

After reading all that i am just glad i dont bet

[OXUFC4Life]

We could have done both and perhaps a stronger side on Saturday would have seen us through but there is always a risk of a cup run negatively impacting a promotion run. This isn't just forum talk it's a recognised issue at all levels of the game. Even the biggest clubs in the world have to prioritise.

Can you imagine the flack Wider would get if we'd put out a full strength side and key players got major injuries or a Wembley appearance meant the players lost focus on the real prize and our league form dipped dramatically? I'm not saying that either of these things would have happened just that there was a chance they could and perhaps Wilder's view was that it wasn't worth taking that chance.

Great win last night midfield were tremendous, Hargreaves class, defence had very little to do due to midfields hard work. Forwards looked good having the right service from midfield. After seeing both performances I feel CW did the forwards and defence a little injustice on Saturday playing the chosen midfield (if you could say there was one). If CW had fielded the same midfield as last night we would have trounced Kiddi, possibly with a trip to Wembley and doing the double. I truly believe we could have done both but I think CW had gone into panic mode. That's all gone now and we need to move on but a case of what could have been!