Great result today

[slappy]

If we had put our pre Christmas squad into League 2, I reckon they would have been top half.

Based on what?!

Based on the bottom third of League 2 basically being conference level, and the top third of the Conference I think would be able to hack it in League 2. In the Boxing Day programme league table we were clear at the top of the table with games in hand.

[boris]

In the Boxing Day programme league table we were clear at the top of the table with games in hand.

Much like now, you mean?

[Hog]

If we had put our pre Christmas squad into League 2, I reckon they would have been top half.

Based on what?!

Based on the bottom third of League 2 basically being conference level, and the top third of the Conference I think would be able to hack it in League 2. In the Boxing Day programme league table we were clear at the top of the table with games in hand.

Oh okay, it's just that I haven't seen a League 2 game for nearly 4 years now so I have no idea what it's like!

[ty cobb]

Lets ignore the stats which can be used to prove anything and look at the facts. Oxford have never been involved in a play off in the league – not even being knocked out at semi final stage.

This was the best chance to reach Wembley. Some clubs never get there and I get the feeling that those who aren’t that fussed went in 1986 and therefore didn’t really care either way.

Realistically we’ll never get there in a ‘proper’ competition and for me the FA trophy in front of 50,000 fans would have been good enough.

[boris]

Lets ignore the stats which can be used to prove anything and look at the facts. Oxford have never been involved in a play off in the league – not even being knocked out at semi final stage.

This was the best chance to reach Wembley. Some clubs never get there and I get the feeling that those who aren’t that fussed went in 1986 and therefore didn’t really care either way.

Realistically we’ll never get there in a ‘proper’ competition and for me the FA trophy in front of 50,000 fans would have been good enough.

And you'd have been prepared to sacrifice promotion for that, would you? Financially, the rewards for promotion are far greater than would be achieved by a FAT win (£140k worth of youth funding, for one thing, plus increased sponsorship and advertising revenue) and that, in my opinion, is far more important than a nice day out and more fixture congestion.

[theox]

Lets ignore the stats which can be used to prove anything and look at the facts. Oxford have never been involved in a play off in the league – not even being knocked out at semi final stage.

This was the best chance to reach Wembley. Some clubs never get there and I get the feeling that those who aren’t that fussed went in 1986 and therefore didn’t really care either way.

Realistically we’ll never get there in a ‘proper’ competition and for me the FA trophy in front of 50,000 fans would have been good enough.

And you'd have been prepared to sacrifice promotion for that, would you? Financially, the rewards for promotion are far greater than would be achieved by a FAT win (£140k worth of youth funding, for one thing, plus increased sponsorship and advertising revenue) and that, in my opinion, is far more important than a nice day out and more fixture congestion.

I was too young to go in 1986 but I agree with Boris. The FA Trophy does not interest me. I have never been to a FA Trophy game. I would not have gone to either semi-final. Yes, I would have gone to Wembley, but I can't say I would have been too fussed whether we won or lost.

I don't know whether being in or out of the FA Trophy has any effect on our League form but frankly I just don't care about the FA Trophy.

[Dr Bob]

I think what some of us oldies are perhaps inclined to forget is

[Dr Bob]

Oh yes - that compared with 1986 there are more routes to Wembley. Even if the stats presented here by others show how small the chance is in absolute terms, compared with those days it is (significantly? probably) greater.

[ty cobb]

It's not a choice between going out the cup and getting promotion though is it. Both our competitors are still in the competition so we would be in no worse a position had we progressed.

Getting promoted is more important than the FA trophy, I wanted both and I think we had the squad to achieve this.

We got knocked out the FA trophy early on last season and the season before - didn't result in promotion though and I don't think you can equate getting knocked out with having a positive impact on your league form, there are also very good arguments that staying in the competition would help the campaign as well - such as giving your second string games to keep them fresh, keeping a winning mentality, the excitement that a trip to Wembley would provide.

[Isaac]

I wanted to win the Trophy while we were in it but I'm not fussed we lost. The possibility of 4 games in a week does put a lot of strain on the players, a couple of injuries and some bad form during a 4 game week and the league could look very different. The same is true now admittedly, but not having to play every other day has to be a good thing.

As for Wembley, the introduction of the playoffs coincided with our decline, of our last 15 years in the football league we must have spent about 12 of them middle of the table or worse. Given that we've sunk about as far as we can go (famous last words), you have to assume if we get back in the league, odds on we'll hit the playoffs a little bit more frequently than we have in the past.

[Snake]

Just thought I’d chip this statistic in, though it’s all according to the bookies.

We are 1-2 on to win the League, therefore 2-1 to not do so and end up in the play-offs.

Given that it’s more or less 50:50 in the play-off semi-finals it’s therefore a 4-1 chance we will end up at Wembley this season.

There, I hope that makes ty cobb really happy knowing there is a 1 in 5 chance of still going to Wembley this season.

[Mally]

1 in 12 is the same as 2/24 which is a 92% failure rate as I indicated!! The underlying assumption to your argument is that all clubs begin the season with equal chance of success, which patently isn't true, due to budgets. The further up the pyramid we get, the less likely we are to reach Wembley because we will come up against sides with equal or bigger budgets than us.

The point is that you were talking about your lifetime. Unless you are planning to end it all in the next 12 months then the odds are of course much better and actually in our favour over the next 25 years - which I'm assuming you plan to be around for. You were the one who introduced probability but didn't extend it to include lifetime - again your stipulation.

The bottom line is that according to your own logic the chances of us going to Wembley in your life time are better than evens.

[GodalmingYellow]

Just thought I’d chip this statistic in, though it’s all according to the bookies.

We are 1-2 on to win the League, therefore 2-1 to not do so and end up in the play-offs.

Given that it’s more or less 50:50 in the play-off semi-finals it’s therefore a 4-1 chance we will end up at Wembley this season.

There, I hope that makes ty cobb really happy knowing there is a 1 in 5 chance of still going to Wembley this season.

I assume you mean 2-1 on rather than 1-2 on. Anyhow, your calcs are mixing up odds with probability, which aren't quite the same thing.

I made the same schoolboy error in my earlier post!!

According to the NLP on Sunday, we are odds 4/7 to win the title. That's a probability of 4/11. So to not win the title the odds are 7/4, which is a probabability of 7/11.

The chances of making a play off final having not won the title, ignoring side issues like drop in form, is 2/4, because 2 teams must get there out of 4.

So the probability of making Wembley this season is 7/11 x 2/4 = 14/44 or 7/22.

Even that analysis is dodgy as it assumes we don't drop out of the play off places as well, for which there must b a small probability, and it also uses bookies odds as the starting point which are not reliable as a source of probability.

[GodalmingYellow]

1 in 12 is the same as 2/24 which is a 92% failure rate as I indicated!! The underlying assumption to your argument is that all clubs begin the season with equal chance of success, which patently isn't true, due to budgets. The further up the pyramid we get, the less likely we are to reach Wembley because we will come up against sides with equal or bigger budgets than us.

The point is that you were talking about your lifetime. Unless you are planning to end it all in the next 12 months then the odds are of course much better and actually in our favour over the next 25 years - which I'm assuming you plan to be around for. You were the one who introduced probability but didn't extend it to include lifetime - again your stipulation.

The bottom line is that according to your own logic the chances of us going to Wembley in your life time are better than evens.

I'm not sure I quite understand the point you are making. I've no problem with probability being used over my lifetime or say 25 years or whatever period to demonstrate the point one way or the other.

You are right that the odds of making Wembley in the next 25 years is better than evens. Quite a lot better actually and I was being unnecessarily pessimistic.

[theox]

It's not a choice between going out the cup and getting promotion though is it. Both our competitors are still in the competition so we would be in no worse a position had we progressed.

Sounds like Martin Foyle is beginning to regret their 'success'.....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... 529455.stm