Great result today

[Kernow Yellow]

I wasn't at the game either, but the Cook described by GY and Baboo above is exactly the one I remember from a decade ago. There were certain matches where he clearly simply didn't fancy it, and did his best not to get involved - one game at Wigan particularly springs to mind.

Wilder needs to work out what it is that motivates Jamie Cook. As others have said, he did the business for Crawley, so he's certainly capable at this level...

[Mally]

Really don't understand how anyone can be happy about going out - you don't see Fergie sticking a rubbish team out in the Champs league because he doesn't want the games to pile up in the league - he wants to win both.

True but the Trophy is not a sensible comparator to the Champions League which has many riches and kudos to bestow upon the winner. The Trophy is more like the League Cup these days in which I believe Mr Ferguson plays a second string in the earlier rounds, even Owen got a game at Barnsley!

We are a non league club therefore the FA trophy is our only cup competition that we have a chance of winning and we had the squad to do so. To dismiss it out of hand as a tin pot trophy smacks of the arrogance and the 'we're too big for this' attitude that we often accused of having.

The league cup is like the Oxford senior cup - stick your reserve team out in that.

Yes the FA trophy is the only cup competition we have a chance of winning but hopefully that's only temporary. In 3 months time we could be in the happy position of never entering the FAT again.

The FA Trophy is a great competition for non-league clubs and gives them a chance of going to Wembley for a big final but we don't want to be a non league club. There are other competitions for football league clubs that have the same reward - thats what we should be thinking of if going to Wembley is such a big deal.

For me getting back in the Football League is more important than anything else. If in our wildest dreams we had a run of results in the FA Cup that got us to a Wembley FA Cup Final I'd give that up to secure promotion and I think most Oxford fans who have lived through the last decade would do the same.

Yes it's possible to have cup and league success but there is always a nagging doubt (and plenty of historical evidence from other clubs to back it up) that the strain that a long cup run puts on a team and squad can have a negative impact on their league form. Otherwise teams at this and top flight level would always be winning the double. I'm more than happy to be out of the FAT and not have that to worry about it impacting our league form, particularly when our main rival is still in that situation.

[Mally]

2 clubs in 24 get to play off final at Wembley in each division each year.

Therefore there is at best a 92% chance of not reaching Wembley each year, and to even each the 8% possibility, the club has to create a very good team compared tot e rest in the division, and still have a load of luck and win a series of play off semis.

As we don't have an automatic right to be a good team in any division, I'd say that makes the opportunity pretty slim by anyone's standards.

If you are going to break it down to statistics then you should look at the bigger picture. If every team has an equal theoretical chance of success (or going to Wembley) at the start of a season then we have a 1 in 12 chance of getting there every year. That means in the next 25 years there is a statistical chance of us getting there twice. If you add into this the chances of getting to a Johnstone Paints Trophy and the League and FA Cup as possible routes if and when we climb up the leagues (as we surely must) then I think we'd have to be very unlucky not to go to Wembley in our lifetime again.

And on top of all that there's a very good chance we could be going there this season.

[SmileyMan]

Before Christmas, I wanted us to have a good go at the Trophy, but since the drop in form, the cancelled game and the end-of-season fixture pile-up came over the horizon, I'm happy to let it go.

A trip to Wembley and some silverware would be nice, but getting back into the League is all important.

[Snake]

A decent (5 minute) set of highlights of the game.

http://www.thefa.com/video.aspx?bcpid=6 ... 7668285001

[Myles Francis]

Before Christmas, I wanted us to have a good go at the Trophy, but since the drop in form, the cancelled game and the end-of-season fixture pile-up came over the horizon, I'm happy to let it go.

A trip to Wembley and some silverware would be nice, but getting back into the League is all important.

Agree with this. Worse case scenario on Saturday was for us to win and Stevenage to lose. As it went the other way round, it means that Stevenage have to play at least one game more than us before the end of the season (possibly two if Chester are expelled).

[slappy]

Before Christmas, I wanted us to have a good go at the Trophy, but since the drop in form, the cancelled game and the end-of-season fixture pile-up came over the horizon, I'm happy to let it go.

A trip to Wembley and some silverware would be nice, but getting back into the League is all important.

Agree with this. Worse case scenario on Saturday was for us to win and Stevenage to lose. As it went the other way round, it means that Stevenage have to play at least one game more than us before the end of the season (possibly two if Chester are expelled).

Stevenage have 2 spare Tuesdays to squeeze in the games they were due to play on FAT SF leg 1 and leg 2. Their run-in is a nightmare too with Oxford, Luton, AFCW, Kiddie, York (plus FGR and Alty) all in 25 days.

York have the easier run in in terms of opponents. But currently have 2 spare Tuesdays to squeeze in Mansfield from tomorrow (who are already playing on one of them) and possibly Kiddie and AFCW if they get through to the FAT Semifinals.

Let's hope York's FAT game at Barrow is postponed due to snow, then they draw the rearranged game, and finally win the replay to set up a 2 legged SF.

(I can repost the remaining fixtures and spare dates for Stevenage and York from TIU if anyone is interested)

[GodalmingYellow]

2 clubs in 24 get to play off final at Wembley in each division each year.

Therefore there is at best a 92% chance of not reaching Wembley each year, and to even each the 8% possibility, the club has to create a very good team compared tot e rest in the division, and still have a load of luck and win a series of play off semis.

As we don't have an automatic right to be a good team in any division, I'd say that makes the opportunity pretty slim by anyone's standards.

If you are going to break it down to statistics then you should look at the bigger picture. If every team has an equal theoretical chance of success (or going to Wembley) at the start of a season then we have a 1 in 12 chance of getting there every year. That means in the next 25 years there is a statistical chance of us getting there twice. If you add into this the chances of getting to a Johnstone Paints Trophy and the League and FA Cup as possible routes if and when we climb up the leagues (as we surely must) then I think we'd have to be very unlucky not to go to Wembley in our lifetime again.

1 in 12 is the same as 2/24 which is a 92% failure rate as I indicated!! The underlying assumption to your argument is that all clubs begin the season with equal chance of success, which patently isn't true, due to budgets. The further up the pyramid we get, the less likely we are to reach Wembley because we will come up against sides with equal or bigger budgets than us.

And on top of all that there's a very good chance we could be going there this season.

Let's not even contemplate that. If we don't take the title, and I think we are highly likely to go up automatically, our chances of making Wembley are still only 1 in 4 this season. The NLP had us at 3/7 not to take the title, so the chances of us making Wembley this season are still very small at 3/28 or about10%.

[boris]

Worse case scenario on Saturday was for us to win and Stevenage to lose. As it went the other way round, it means that Stevenage have to play at least one game more than us before the end of the season (possibly two if Chester are expelled).

Nah, worst case scenario was for us to draw and win the replay and for Stevenage to lose.

[Snake]

Worse case scenario on Saturday was for us to win and Stevenage to lose. As it went the other way round, it means that Stevenage have to play at least one game more than us before the end of the season (possibly two if Chester are expelled).

Nah, worst case scenario was for us to draw and win the replay and for Stevenage to lose.

A pedant writes.

Nah, worst case scenario was for us to draw, then the replay called off (loads of times) and then win the replay and for Stevenage to lose.

[Ancient Colin]

If you are going to break it down to statistics then you should look at the bigger picture. If every team has an equal theoretical chance of success (or going to Wembley) at the start of a season then we have a 1 in 12 chance of getting there every year. That means in the next 25 years there is a statistical chance of us getting there twice. If you add into this the chances of getting to a Johnstone Paints Trophy and the League and FA Cup as possible routes if and when we climb up the leagues (as we surely must) then I think we'd have to be very unlucky not to go to Wembley in our lifetime again.

Well .... if we were to treat each season as independent, and the 0.083 probability of making the play-off final as constant, then, with some strong distributional assumptions, over the next 25 years, I think that the probabilities of a play-of final visit are approximately as follows:

0 appearances: 0.114
1 appearance: 0.258
2 appearances: 0.282
3 appearances: 0.196
4 appearances 0.098
5 or more: 0.052

However, given that we are talking Oxford ...

[SmileyMan]

However, given that we are talking Oxford ...

Well, being Oxford could work in our favour here, since the &quotunluckiest&quot (ie least likely) outcome would be the 1 in 953,962,166,440,689,000,000,000,000 chance that we go to the playoff final every year for the next 25 years.

To achieve the playoff final for 24 years in a row and still not end up in the Premiership would be quite an Oxford-like achievement, actually.

[slappy]

If we had put our pre Christmas squad into League 2, I reckon they would have been top half. Probably not in the 3 auto promotion places. Which would leave 8 teams for the 2 play-off final candidates at Wembley. I think we would be one of the weaker of this 8, so if we do go up, there is perhaps between 1 in 4 and 1 in 6 chance we would play at Wembley next year!

[Hog]

If we had put our pre Christmas squad into League 2, I reckon they would have been top half.

Based on what?!

[Ancient Colin]

Well, being Oxford could work in our favour here, since the &quotunluckiest&quot (ie least likely) outcome would be the 1 in 953,962,166,440,689,000,000,000,000 chance that we go to the playoff final every year for the next 25 years.

To achieve the playoff final for 24 years in a row and still not end up in the Premiership would be quite an Oxford-like achievement, actually.

Hmm, I made it 1 in 953,962,166,440,691,000,000,000,000 !! Expect
you are right though, I'm only approximating to the nearest two trillion.