When will our competitors start dropping points?

[Baboo]

Kettering are out of the running, really, and if I'm being honest I think we are too, despite our absolutely heroic efforts to rescue the season. Even if we win all our remaining games, I think it's unlikely that we'll have enough points.

Well, I believe!

Yeah, why not.

[A-Ro]

I thought I'd revisit the analysis I did the other week, using the same (admittedly unrealistic) assumptions things do not appear to have gone in our favour.

06/04/2009 Burton Torquay
07/04/2009 Stevenage Cambridge
07/04/2009 Wrexham Histon
11/04/2009 Burton Histon
11/04/2009 Oxford Wrexham
11/04/2009 Torquay Crawley
13/04/2009 Crawley Stevenage
13/04/2009 Kettering Cambridge
13/04/2009 Kidderminster Burton
16/04/2009 Kettering Crawley
18/04/2009 Burton Oxford
18/04/2009 Histon Kidderminster
18/04/2009 Kettering Wrexham
18/04/2009 Stevenage Torquay
21/04/2009 Stevenage Kidderminster
25/04/2009 Crawley Histon
25/04/2009 Kidderminster Kettering
25/04/2009 Torquay Burton

The final table now looks like this.

Burton 91
Kidderminster 87
Torquay 86
Cambridge 85
Histon 85
Kettering 83
Stevenage 83
Oxford 82
Crawley 76
Wrexham 74

Instead of this.

Burton 93
Kidderminster 89
Cambridge 88
Torquay 88
Histon 85
Oxford 84
Kettering 82
Stevenage 82
Crawley 81
Wrexham 78

[Long John Silver]

The final table now looks like this.

Burton 91
Kidderminster 87
Torquay 86
Cambridge 85
Histon 85
Kettering 83
Stevenage 83
Oxford 82
Crawley 76
Wrexham 74

That'll be some going for Stevenage to get to 83 points, as it would mean five out of six wins, and they still have to play Cambridge, Torquay, Crawley and Kidderminster.

[A-Ro]

I admit that the assumptions I used are not related to the real world but I have treated everybody the same except us of course who have to win every game.

As Ascerbic Ox pointed out previously I have not factored in any drawn games. It is merely a mechanism to determine the effect of the teams around us having to play each other.

Kettering are in a similar situation to Stevenage.

[A-Ro]

If all the teams in the mixer draw against each other and we of course win all our games the picture is a bit better but it still leaves us outside the playoffs.

Burton 92
Cambridge 87
Histon 86
Kidderminster 85
Torquay 84
Oxford 82
Stevenage 78
Kettering 78
Crawley 74
Wrexham 73

[amershamwrighty]

Have you got a view upon what combination of events has to occur for us to sneak into the playoffs ?

[Kernow Yellow]

Forget Kettering and Stevenage, the worrying thing is that the current top five look strong favourites to finish in the top five, all with at least 82 points. So even in the unlikely event that we win ALL our remaining fixtures, it's still no more than an outside chance of us making the play-offs.

It gives me no pleasure to say it, but I just can't see it happening.

[Kernow Yellow]

Have you got a view upon what combination of events has to occur for us to sneak into the playoffs ?

Getting the 5 points back would help...

[A-Ro]

Have you got a view upon what combination of events has to occur for us to sneak into the playoffs ?

1. We get our 5 points back
2. Some teams from the bottom half of the table start getting some remarkable results.

[amershamwrighty]

3 - all the teams above us play a couple of unregistered players twice this weekend and - as if by a miracle - it is spotted by the Conference first thing next Tuesday morning.

Whoops - sorry that should go in the 'hat' section as an UE.

[A-Ro]

Burton have got to play Torquay twice and Crawley could do us a favour by beating Torquay away. That does suggest that Torquay will have to have a collapse of monumental proportions.

[Long John Silver]

Have you got a view upon what combination of events has to occur for us to sneak into the playoffs ?

KIDDERMINSTER
Forest Green(a) - Lose, Ebbsfleet(a) - Draw, Altrincham(a) - Win, BURTON(H) - Win, Histon(a) - Lose, Stevenage(a) - Lose, KETTERING(H) - Draw
W2, D2, L3 = 8 pts. Final total = 80 pts.

STEVENAGE
CAMBRIDGE(H) - Draw, EBBSFLEET(H)- Win, Crawley(a) - Draw, TORQUAY(H) - Draw, KIDDERMINSTER(H) - Win, Mansfield(a) - Win
W3, D3 = 12 pts. Final total = 80 pts

[Mooro]

(20th March) - Ten days on and last nights result has moved us up to 9th in the final reckoning ahead of Crawley, though most interesting is that Wrexham and Kettering have fallen back to the pack leaving the final spot wide open, and possibly even within our reach...

1) Burton 91 ||33 (2pts down)
2) Cambridge 90 ||30 (n/c)
3) Histon 85 ||29 (3 down)
4) Torquay 84 ||27 (2 up)
5) Wrexham 77 ||25 (4 down)
6) Kidderminster 77 ||17 (2 up)
7) Kettering 75 ||15 (6 down)
Stevenage 75 ||15 (n/c)
9) Oxford 72 ||18 (incl -5) (2 up)
10) Crawley 71 ||20 (incl -1) (3 down)

Using
Another two and a half weeks on and my latest table (based on games within top10 being drawn, with everything else won barring a few trips to midtable sides) show Wrexham in freefall, but Kiddie matching our rise, so despite moving ahead of Stevenage and Kettering, it still looks like a little too much left to do.

1) Burton 90 ||31 (1pt down)
2) Cambridge 87 ||27 (3 down)
3) Histon 86 ||31 (1 up)
4) Torquay 84 ||27 (n/c)
5 up1) Kidderminster 81 ||23 (4 up)
6 up3) Oxford 76 ||21 (incl -5) (4 up)
7) Stevenage 75 ||15 (n/c)
Kettering 75 ||15 (n/c)
9 up1) Crawley 74 ||25 (incl -1) (3 up)[/quote]
10 d5) Wrexham 72 ||20 (5 down)

Our next hope is that Kiddie have four games between now and next Tuesday, with three away trips (7th Forest Green, 9th Ebbsfleet, 11th Altrincham) before hosting Burton on the 13th. All winnable, but also all loseable........(perhaps)

[GodalmingYellow]

Kiddy do seem to be the fly in our ointment. I don't think Kettering or Stevenage will be able to amass enough points given their remaining fixtures.

I now have us finishing 6th with 80 points, and even if we beat Burton away (and win all our other games), we still need Kiddy to slip up at a lesser opposition.

[A-Ro]

I think its safe to say that we can only really catch Torquay or Kiddy and even then one of them has got to have a collapse equivalent to the England middle order.