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How many points will secure a play-off place?
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:47 am
by Pe├▒a Oxford United
I reckon people always over-estimate this: I'm going for 76 and I imagine that's probably too many anyway.
The winning total will be defined as one point more than the final total of whichever club finishes sixth.
Please make a posting stating the figure you have voted for.
Predictions to be made before Tuesday night's games kick off.
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:48 am
by Pe├▒a Oxford United
Also could somebody with moderating power remove the typo in the question? Ta.
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:50 am
by admin
Seeing as you asked so nicely...
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:06 am
by Pe├▒a Oxford United
Thanking you kindly. Was it admin who voted for 74?
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:16 am
by Shoobedoo
No, it were me. I can see all the playoff candidates continuing to drop points. Morecambe seem to be the only team with anything remotely resembling consistency at the moment (other than Dagenham of course).
I think 74 might still be on the high side.
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:24 am
by Pe├▒a Oxford United
So....sigh .....who voted for 79?
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:46 am
by Mally
I've gone for 77. Here's the logic:
Average required over the past 4 years is 72 points in a 42 game season.
Average points per game at 72 points is approximately 1.7.
4 additional games this season at 1.7 points is 6.8 so lets say 7 which gives a total of 79 points.
Discount this by 2 points to allow for the fact that D&R are running away with the title and eating up points from other teams and you get to:
77 points
dr ceri
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:55 am
by dr ceri
I've gone for 76 points, I agree with Mally's reasoning but I think there's an unusual amount of inconsistency amongst the play off contenders that will drag the tally needed down a notch.
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:14 pm
by scooter
75
Re: How many points will secure a play-off place?
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:19 pm
by A-Ro
"Peña Oxford United" wrote:Please make a posting stating the figure you have voted for.
Always read the question before you start to answer.
I voted for 73
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:52 pm
by Mooro
I've kept it on the high side at 78 as my own predictions from a month ago have consistently kept it at 80/81 but I am aware that after a period where there were a lot of games between the big 8, many sides are moving into a string of games against the lower sides which are the games they should win but have been throwing points away in so far.
Which is a long winded way of saying, I predict higher, I actually suspect lower, but I've ended up with a compromise which I firmly do not actually believe in at all....
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:58 pm
by boris
77 for me, using pretty much the same reasoning as Mally, but also taking into account that it's equally tight at the bottom, which means that a larger number of teams will be fighting for their survival, leading to more shock results (like us losing to Northwich, St Albans, and Stafford - or won't they be shocks?). So actually 77 could be a bit on the high side, but having already cast my vote I can't cast another one.
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 1:00 pm
by admin
However, I can! 75 for me (meaning the answer will inevitably be 76).
Re:
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 1:54 pm
by GodalmingYellow
"Peña Oxford United" wrote:So....sigh .....who voted for 79?
So...sigh... that would be me...sigh. Seems I'm not alone....sigh.
Same reasoning as Mally but I see no reason to discount.
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 2:06 pm
by Isaac
I've gone for 74, things often go a bit weird in the last few games of the season.