Wilder Out?

[YM72]

[quote=&quotPaul Cooper&quot]
The trouble is that many supporters appear to be getting more and more ambivalent about the season.

[/quote]


As far as troubles go that should be the least of anyone's worries.

[Ancient Colin]

While I have some sympathy for Mooro's position and the risks that are involved, I haven't changed mine that we need a new management team for reasons set out in other threads and, if not now, when? Changing now means the incoming manager would have the January window (albeit without a lot of scope to do things) and then the summer to rebuild. Changing at the end of season delays that process and mixes up contract discussions/negotiations with the change plus, if it is pretty obvious that the change is coming as the season wanes, then Wilder is a lame duck with neither great incentives nor any great authority over the team.

[SWA]

good post ancient colin ^^^

[Mooro]

Yes, we should have been able to expect more from this season, but I think we should beware of risking the dire consequences of instability by chasing what is, in all likelihood, beyond us.

And given developments elsewhere since Christmas, I ams sure that Forest fans would add the phrase &quotbe careful what you wish for&quot as they trade a man who has got them from the Championship basement to a point off the playoffs, for a man who took Birmingham down from the Premier League, then damn near repeated the feat with their slightly larger neighbours....!!

[Paul Cooper]

Agree Mooro, but talking about a ridiculous appointment sure to annoy Forets supporters.

And the classicof appointing (seemiungly) the only person they interviewed.

Not many neutrals will want success for Forest based on what they have just done.

[Mooro]

So, can Wilder survive beyond this season, or should he even be allowed to last that long?
It is bumbling along as I suspected, a decent run of a few games has taken us away from the basement and should keep us clear of the drop zone, but likewise poor results in the last couple of games have pretty much rendered the playoffs out of reach, at least without a massive change in performance levels.

A couple of months ago on this thread I said that we should accept that this season was going to be instantly forgettable, but that we should keep Wilder to avoid any disruption that might drag us down into the basement battle. I still largely hold that view, but there are other factors that I hadn't considered:

I said he should be given the second half of the season to see if he could get us up the table to where we were aiming and he did begin to do that, but has again let it slip and I now wonder whether he is going to be able to muster the troops to be able to do it again, or will his continued presence actually begin to drag us down further? He is, as someone said above, a sitting duck who may begin to lose the dressing room, and it is clear he is already lost most of the goodwill from the promotion year among the crowd.
There is also the question of whether a potentially outgoing manager should be in charge of deciding which of our out of contract players are released or get renewals. We could wait until the summer to do this with the new man, but that runs the risk of some of the better players being poached by more settled sides.
Another factor to consider is whether there are enough suitable candidates available now (that don't involve a buyout fee) to make a decent selection from or whether the market in the summer will have a significantly better selection.
There is the financial aspect too - After the Forum this week, I think most of us can forgive IL for not wanting to spend any more money than he has to on this decision, so there is a heavy inclination to wait until the summer rather than having to pay off Wilder for the rest of his contract, but is that being countered with dropping gates between now and the end of the season?

With all that in mind, I now wonder whether there is a case for bringing it forward slightly, once the playoffs are realistically out of reach, just to avoid the possibility of the stagnation dragging us too far down the table getting a jump on other clubs in terms of being able to get someone in before the choice of clubs for prospective managers to go to widens in the summer giving the new man the chance to look at the out of contract list before players start leaving but that means that Wilder's payoff is not restrictive?
I suppose in the end, it depends on whether we can trust Mickey Lewis to steady the ship and sail us away from the dropzone while the selection process grinds into action, as we dont want to be trying to find the man to take us to League 1 and beyond, while we are fighting to avoid a return to the Other Place!

[joepoolman]

I think it would be far too risky to make a change now, especially seeing as any new manager could make virtually no change to the squad, we're probably not going anywhere with Wilder this season, but it makes far more sense to keep things steady and settled with the same manager for the rest of the season than to try a new man with different ideas.
As to whether he should go at the end of the season, well ask me at the end of the season, it would be ludicrous imo to say now that he should definitely stay or go at the end of the season with the best part of 3 months still to go.

[Dr Bob]

I agree with Mooro and joepoolman.There is too much of the season left to look to replace CW immediately, but if there is no upturn in performance (and assuming no serious slide either), then getting a new manager in a few weeks before the end of the season might give them the chance to check out the current squad and make their own decisions as the summer merry-go-round approaches.

[recordmeister]

Wilder sounded like a man utterly confused in his post match interview yesterday. However, so long as we're not risking relegation, there is no point in 'removing' CW until his contract expires at the end of the season. Paying him off to get someone new in a few weeks before the end of the season makes NO sense.

[Myles Francis]

As to whether he should go at the end of the season, well ask me at the end of the season, it would be ludicrous imo to say now that he should definitely stay or go at the end of the season with the best part of 3 months still to go.

I agree with the general sentiment that to change now will be costly and pointless, but I disagree with this bit. OK, &quotdefinitely&quot may be a bit strong, but I see no reason to keep Wilder on beyond the end of the season now. We simply are not making any progress. As Mooro has already said, the goodwill from the promotion season has been used up. Yes, injuries haven't helped this season, but when you run a small squad with a few larger wage earners, that's a risk you run and reflects the manager's judgement.

First season back in the league we averaged 1.37 points per game. Last season was 1.47ppg. This season so far it's 1.3ppg. To make the play-offs now, we will need to pick up over 2ppg for the last 16 games - and that simply isn't going to happen. If Wilder proves me wrong and wins pretty much every game, makes the play-offs and takes us up, then fair play to him. But at this moment in time, he's been given the resources and the opportunities to take the club forward and not done so. Time for a change.

[OUFC4eva]

Would the situation change or become clearer should
Graham Westley and PNE part company, as expected this week?

just thought I would throw a curveball into the mix.

[joepoolman]

First season back in the league we averaged 1.37 points per game. Last season was 1.47ppg. This season so far it's 1.3ppg. To make the play-offs now, we will need to pick up over 2ppg for the last 16 games - and that simply isn't going to happen. If Wilder proves me wrong and wins pretty much every game, makes the play-offs and takes us up, then fair play to him. But at this moment in time, he's been given the resources and the opportunities to take the club forward and not done so. Time for a change.

That's my point though, although it seems unlikely that we'll make a play-off push it's unfair on him and the team to say that it &quotisn't going to happen&quot. I think the debate to be had assuming he stays until the end of the season is what should be enough for Wilder's rolling contract (if that is what he's on) to be renewed. I think that if we go on a good run between now and the end of the season and finish close to the play-offs, then given the freakish nature of our injury problems this season, and how far he's taken us in his time here, he deserves the job until Christmas time, if we remain in the bottom half, or more than 6 points(ish) of the play-offs then sadly I think a change should be made.

I still refuse to be held to these views come May however, as no one knows what will happen/be revealed in the next 11 weeks.

[Dr Bob]

Wilder sounded like a man utterly confused in his post match interview yesterday. However, so long as we're not risking relegation, there is no point in 'removing' CW until his contract expires at the end of the season. Paying him off to get someone new in a few weeks before the end of the season makes NO sense.

So you think that, if we get in the situation where we are going neither up nor down, there is absolutely no merit whatsoever in getting a new person in, to make their own judgements prior to the retention, clear-out, etc decisions?

Unless of course you have no desire that any of those out of contract should be retained - then your absolute position would make good sense.

[Paul Cooper]

I think it almost certain that if we don't make the play offs (almosty certain) then CW will be off.

If and when this happens then it needs to happen asap. I think that the players contracts don't run out until the end of June (?) and so you would hope that asny potential new managet will have a feel for what he wants.

Personally as soon as we definitely can't make the play offs, I would hope that Il would act and start a sensible recruitment process.So long as we are safe from relegation then Micky Lewis can take the team for 2-3 games (or Chirs Allen if he wants to be a little more left field).

The sooner we can start planning for next season the better.

Oh and we do need a manager who will be able to tell when the youngsters are ready for the first team and will blood them.

[Matt D]

So you think that, if we get in the situation where we are going neither up nor down, there is absolutely no merit whatsoever in getting a new person in, to make their own judgements prior to the retention, clear-out, etc decisions?

Unless of course you have no desire that any of those out of contract should be retained - then your absolute position would make good sense.

in those circumstances i think the merit is that any new manager starts the new season afresh, with their own choice of players.

in recent years, how many managers have come in mid-season and started the following season in credit? only wilder i should think. for most of the others, i think fans have reduced the period in which they take a judgement during the new season, as they've already started making their minds up at the end of the prior one - when they've often taken over a squad with a number of problems.