Going down?

[Kairdiff Exile]

For me, although the result was an adverse one yesterday, it wasn’t surprising - I didn’t expect us to get anything against Bolton. What was more problematic was the manner of it: so many chances but nothing to show for it. We can grumble about the lack of a red card for the challenge by their ‘keeper, but ultimately if we had a better forward line then we’d have got something.

Other results going against us heaps yet more pressure on, and something is going to have to change. I’d be giving Goodrham a start ahead of Murphy (Liam Manning basically said as much, I notice), but we’re basically relying on kids at this point.

[Isaac]

15 games without a win, a third of a season, it's a miracle we're not already relegated. I think we're doomed, no confidence and Cambridge look to have hit form. It's a disaster of a season - given we lost £4million last year and that was with selling Atkinson for £1.6... then this year our wage bill has gone up so the finances must look horrific. Next season, with various un-sellable players on good contracts (I'm looking at Murphy, Wildschutt, Henry, Bodin, Baldock) looks extremely tricky in League One, let alone League Two. I wonder if the contracts have a reduction on relegation clause in them. Given the way the club has operated over the last few seasons, I would be surprised if they have. You'd assume Brannagan would be off (by necessity based on his championship level contract), Findlay maybe (given the interest from Scotland) and possibly Moore.

So, two hopes really, primarily that the owners really do have deep pockets, commitment and a lot of patience. Secondly that we can stay up, I'd think we need 2 wins and 2 draws at least from the remaining 5. The lack of goals is the very obvious problem, given that Manning has understandably run out of patience with Wildschutt/Murphy and doesn't appear to like/rate Tyler Smith, then we will probably have a front 3 of Goodrham, O'Donkor and Joseph. It doesn't scream goals. I'd prefer Browne out wide with the ball in front of him rather than in the middle where too often he's facing the wrong way when he gets the ball, but this is really re-arranging the deckchairs time. We've changed the manager, we've given all the players a decent opportunity, ultimately if we go down it's because they're not good enough.

[slappy]

Looking at the table ...
I think it's possible that we could catch one of the teams ahead of us. Port Vale and MK Dons don't play any of the bottom nine teams, but some of the mid-table teams are perhaps mentally on the beach already with nothing left to play for.
Cambridge are on a run and also have to play Acccrington / Forest Green Rovers on the last two Saturdays of the season.
Morecambe have just three games left against mid-table teams.

[Kernow Yellow]

We've changed the manager, we've given all the players a decent opportunity, ultimately if we go down it's because they're not good enough.

We changed the manager far too late, and if we go down it will be because the squad isn't good enough rather than a few players individually. Robinson left us with too many crocks, some dodgy loanees and a few kids (as well as a very small core of reliable, experienced professional footballers). What he was allowed to do to our club, on a massive budget, is absolutely criminal. Any decent manager given a free hand in January would have kept us away from this.

Manning understandably wanted to make us hard to beat first and foremost, but the failure to win against Morecambe and Port Vale (and to score goals in general of course) has cost us badly. Tomorrow is huge, as we will almost certainly get beaten at Oakwell on Saturday. Too much pressure will be on the last few games, and I don't fancy us to rise to it - I don't think we have enough tools in the box (though I really hope I'm wrong). We need wins, not draws, and we can't score. That's why I now think we will probably go down.

[Ancient Colin]

On Jan 1st, there was a thread about us having blown the playoffs and I posted this (I don't know if the html works to make it look like a quote):

So you think we're safe from a relegation battle? Do you have any confidence in our strengthening in the January window or in Robinson improving our performances?

One advantage of being a pessimist is that you're rarely confronted with nasty shocks! Happy New Year all.

Although most of the other posts seemed to think this was unlikely, it seemed a high risk to me then and became even more so as things regressed. I don't think Manning has the time or the ammuniton to pull us out of this, so we'll be relying on favours elsewhere.

[OtmoorYellow]

It looks to me like Manning is making progress.

On Saturday we were the better side against a promotion hopeful, in the second half and created plenty of chances.

As I thought at the time, letting Matty Taylor go was criminal, and his treatment by KR was scandalous. Since he has left, he has been our squad's highest goal scorer, albeit for Port Vale. Some diplomacy by the club with Matty Taylor might be helpful to lure him back in the summer, but I suspect the horse has already bolted.

In getting rid of Taylor, KR signed Ateef Konate and Tyler Smith. Well what an impact those two have made. Not.

Too many crocks spoiled the broth.

Will we go down? That last match against Accy looks like the highest value fixture of the season.

[Isaac]

On Jan 1st, there was a thread about us having blown the playoffs and I posted this (I don't know if the html works to make it look like a quote):

So you think we're safe from a relegation battle? Do you have any confidence in our strengthening in the January window or in Robinson improving our performances?

One advantage of being a pessimist is that you're rarely confronted with nasty shocks! Happy New Year all.

Although most of the other posts seemed to think this was unlikely, it seemed a high risk to me then and became even more so as things regressed. I don't think Manning has the time or the ammuniton to pull us out of this, so we'll be relying on favours elsewhere.

It was unlikely back then and it's taken probably (definitely? Does the rage-on database answer this?) the worst run of form we've ever had and we're still not in the relegation places - a relegation battle was always a long shot, 2 wins in 16 which is terrible form would have us fairly comfortable. So it's taken a once in a lifetime run of form for it to happen. If we manage to stay up having not won in 16 (or 17, 18, 19, 20 - it's possible) games then the season will go down as one of the most memorable.

Same old problems against Portsmouth, our best performance for a while but missed far too many chances. Relying on O'Donkor up front, good though he is, once again highlights our problems. So far we've only sacked the manager, rightly so, but one of two things happened while Robinson lost his head this season - either the club allowed him to do whatever he wanted (signings, letting Taylor go) or they all agreed with them, whichever way it shows incompetence. I suspect in the January window that they (like us, to be fair) thought relegation was such a long shot it was more or less a free hit - so letting Taylor go, being willing to let Findlay go and then signing Konate/Smith was a bit of an experiment or money saving activity. I remember one of the bbc oxford fans forums the club said they wanted to see what having players like Konate in the side looked like for OUFC. Which we've at least found out.

[slappy]

Last night went about as well as it could considering we only picked up one point.
Accrington, Cambridge, MK Dons and Port Vale all lost. Cambridge have been the team I worry about as they were in a good run of form, and also still have to play FGR and Accrington.

We also still have our superior goal difference over the teams around us.

[Kernow Yellow]

Yes last night's performance, combined with the results of others, has given me some hope, and I have changed my vote - I now think it's probably slightly more likely than not that we will survive. It will be uncomfortably close either way though.

Here's a thought - last night will have taken a lot out of some of our really key players, who ran and battled themselves into the ground. Do we ask them to do it all again on Saturday (and next Tuesday and Saturday)? Or do we make some tactical changes for Oakwell to ensure we are at as full strength as possible for the last 3 (winnable) matches? I would hate to go into next Tuesday or the following games with injuries or suspensions to any of our central midfielders or key defenders. But thanks to Robinson we don't have much of a squad to rotate...

[Dr Bob]

Cambridge have been the team I worry about as they were in a good run of form, and also still have to play FGR and Accrington.

We also still have our superior goal difference over the teams around us.

I too have been worried about Cambridge, but lest we forget, we must also play those two teams. The trouble is our inability to score. Stockbridge was his usual dreadful self against Bolton, but there were still chances. Against Pompey we could have been out of sight. The fact that we have games coming up against those teams will mean nothing when our poor goals-for is not about failing to create clear chances (eg against good teams), but not taking them (even when we create them, whoever we are playing). However poor the opposition might be, if we cannot hit the back of the net when we create the chances...

For a while now I have hoped that our vastly superior/less inferior goal difference could be our saving grace, which would be ironic given our inability to score or keep clean sheets.

Until this weekend, I was dreading our season going down to the last game of the season. Now, I am just hoping that it does.

[Kairdiff Exile]

Well the world feels a bit brighter today. Win one out of the next two and we really ought to be fine - and frankly, if we can't beat two teams below us then we won't have deserved to stay up.

Great to see Tyler Goodrham getting the opening goal, and I loved his puppy-like enthusiasm in his RadOx interview after the game. We've got a good'un there, let's hope we can really bring him through next season.

Any reflections on the performance from those who were there?

[recordmeister]

I've been running the maths and it is really not good news that Cambridge have a game in hand. They're now the big threat. If we win on Sat and they draw with Accy, we'll be fine. But if Cambridge win their last two, we really have to also win our last two. This could go down to the wire, and I fear the only time this season we'll find ourselves below the dotted line, is when the fat lady sings.

But.... it is in our hands. We really should win vs FGR. Accy is a different story and a difficult game. Even in a 'normal' season I'd doubt getting 3 points against them. Let's pray that Cambridge and they draw on Sat, and we win.

[slappy]

We've had a couple of favours recently from teams you wouldn't expect. Wycombe beating Cambridge last Tuesday, and Cheltenham throwing in the towel against us.

So we can actually score goals (and more than one) from open play and we can win a game.

FGR are down already so nothing to play for, and Cheltenham beat them 3-1 last week so how bad must they be.

I don't think we can lose on Saturday and have enough other results go our way for us to be safe as MK could still go past us, and depending on the result between Accrington and Cambridge, either or both could too.

[Isaac]

I think you're too pessimistic on the permutations recordmeister - one win and we're safe I think. Neither Accrington or Morecambe could catch us then due to goal difference. Leaving one relegation place between us, Cambridge and MK Dons. Both teams would have to win all their remaining games. It's not impossible, but you'd think it was hugely unlikely. Draws, for us anyway, don't really make any difference.

Despite that, I'd still not be planning for league one next season just yet, but on the basis that getting that win won't be straighforward. Despite the 2nd half performance where you could see the confidence return against Cheltenham I suspect we're still very fragile. Concede first against FGR and you can imagine the nerves kicking in...

[Kernow Yellow]

But if Cambridge win their last two, we really have to also win our last two.

I don't know what maths you've been running, but this isn't necessarily true at all. If we win on Saturday, and MK fail to beat Barnsley, we are basically safe. Of course, if we don't beat FGR then it gets very hairy again. And Barnsley have less to play for than when they eased us out of their way last week, so we certainly shouldn't be counting any chickens. But at least we cleared the first hurdle, and in some style.

We started very nervously on Tuesday, understandably. The first half was desperately poor in places. But once we got the first goal, Cheltenham's resistance crumbled. Goodrham may have got a bit lucky with his finish, but the foul he committed in the build-up was so clever for a player of his young years. He had another great effort too which whistled just wide. He looks the real deal.

Nice to see Murphy contributing and looking like he cares too. And Marcus Browne coming back into some form. We know these players have quality, let's hope they can continue to show it over the next couple of games and beyond.

The real stars for me were the defence again. Since Robinson left we have hardly let in any goals, and our goal difference, despite an inability to score, might yet prove so valuable. We have conceded the same number as Peterborough in 7th, and only 8 fewer than top-of-the-league Argyle. The back 5 should be exempt from much of the understandable criticism that comes the team's way.

But it ain't over yet. COYY.