How many points will secure a play-off place?

[Pe├▒a Oxford United]

I reckon people always over-estimate this: I'm going for 76 and I imagine that's probably too many anyway.

The winning total will be defined as one point more than the final total of whichever club finishes sixth.

Please make a posting stating the figure you have voted for.

Predictions to be made before Tuesday night's games kick off.

[Pe├▒a Oxford United]

Also could somebody with moderating power remove the typo in the question? Ta.

[admin]

Seeing as you asked so nicely...

[Pe├▒a Oxford United]

Thanking you kindly. Was it admin who voted for 74?

[Shoobedoo]

No, it were me. I can see all the playoff candidates continuing to drop points. Morecambe seem to be the only team with anything remotely resembling consistency at the moment (other than Dagenham of course).
I think 74 might still be on the high side.

[Pe├▒a Oxford United]

So....sigh .....who voted for 79?

[Mally]

I've gone for 77. Here's the logic:

Average required over the past 4 years is 72 points in a 42 game season.

Average points per game at 72 points is approximately 1.7.

4 additional games this season at 1.7 points is 6.8 so lets say 7 which gives a total of 79 points.

Discount this by 2 points to allow for the fact that D&ampR are running away with the title and eating up points from other teams and you get to:

77 points

[dr ceri]

I've gone for 76 points, I agree with Mally's reasoning but I think there's an unusual amount of inconsistency amongst the play off contenders that will drag the tally needed down a notch.

[scooter]

75

[A-Ro]

Please make a posting stating the figure you have voted for.

Always read the question before you start to answer.

I voted for 73

[Mooro]

I've kept it on the high side at 78 as my own predictions from a month ago have consistently kept it at 80/81 but I am aware that after a period where there were a lot of games between the big 8, many sides are moving into a string of games against the lower sides which are the games they should win but have been throwing points away in so far.

Which is a long winded way of saying, I predict higher, I actually suspect lower, but I've ended up with a compromise which I firmly do not actually believe in at all....

[boris]

77 for me, using pretty much the same reasoning as Mally, but also taking into account that it's equally tight at the bottom, which means that a larger number of teams will be fighting for their survival, leading to more shock results (like us losing to Northwich, St Albans, and Stafford - or won't they be shocks?). So actually 77 could be a bit on the high side, but having already cast my vote I can't cast another one.

[admin]

However, I can! 75 for me (meaning the answer will inevitably be 76).

[GodalmingYellow]

So....sigh .....who voted for 79?

So...sigh... that would be me...sigh. Seems I'm not alone....sigh.

Same reasoning as Mally but I see no reason to discount.

[Isaac]

I've gone for 74, things often go a bit weird in the last few games of the season.