Consistency

Anything yellow and blue
joepoolman
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Re: Consistency

Post by joepoolman »

Snake wrote:Meanwhile, mind the reality gap - http://www.statto.com/football/stats/en ... 2006-03-26

That gap to the drop zone in very late 2006 is bigger than the current one. I even recall some people posting up things like “only 11 points off the play-offs, it CAN be done with a good run”.
While I am very concerned about our position, there is one key difference between the table now and that table, which is Harltepool. The Monkey Hangers appear very likely (although definitely not certain) to go down, which would leave only one more place below the dreaded dotted line.

The table that scares me the most is probably this one: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/en ... 2014-02-15
Snake
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Re: Consistency

Post by Snake »

And this one - http://www.statto.com/football/stats/en ... table/full

And the fact that Chelts have got rid of a crap manager.
Hog
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Re: Consistency

Post by Hog »

Eric Pollard wrote: The club would start again and eventually be stronger for it.
That's all right then! We're in a win, win situation - finish in the top 22 and we'll still be a League club, finish in the bottom two and we'll be stronger for it! Don't know why I've been losing sleep over it!
Radley Rambler
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Re: Consistency

Post by Radley Rambler »

Snake wrote:And this one - http://www.statto.com/football/stats/en ... table/full

And the fact that Chelts have got rid of a crap manager.
Yes and notice Hartlepool's current form, getting better.....
GodalmingYellow
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Re: Consistency

Post by GodalmingYellow »

Only York, Newport and Cheltenham are below us in the form tables.

I don't quite agree with Snake that the club will die if we are relegated again, because to me, the club is the supporters and the supporters are the club, so any phoenix organisation would still be the same club, it just wouldn't have the Football League share certificate or the same legal owners.

I agree with Snake's sentiment though, that the risks to OUFC Ltd as it exists today, are huge if we go down. It would take millions to resurrect OUFC Ltd back into division 4, and no one would be interested in that "opportunity" unless they were able to take the club on a debt free basis, which would mean a lot of people losing a lot of money.

But, OUFC as a club would be stronger in the long term, than the present, permanently shackled football team.

OxVox needs to start growing its membership quickly.
Jimski
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Re: Consistency

Post by Jimski »

I have actually put a fiver on us to go down. I thought the price (14-1) underplayed the chances of its happening. I sincerely hope I don't win, but definitely see it as a major possibility now.
Brahma Bull
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Re: Consistency

Post by Brahma Bull »

OxVox will be growing it's membership in the coming 12 months. It is a key objective moving forward.

FWIW, it's worth repeating that OxVox's relationship with Lenagan had probably been the best relationship the Trust has ever had with any owner. Vitally, it questioned the club on a bi-daily basis about ideas, issues and concerns of fans. Some got stick for our perceived closeness but we regularly helped with decision making and even decisions made, were changed after speaking to the Trust. Homophobia, Ticket Prices where we were consulted regularly and some of the proposals taken on - others weren't and we made our feelings known etc.

We now have a different relationship. We have new people who need to understand the committee and its personalities and vice-versa. We are getting to know Daryl, Mark and their team. It's a work in progress. They work differently to Lenagan and that may be a good thing.

The club will not die if we are relegated. I get frustrated with the very suggestion. It's the easy answer, the easy and lazy way out to rid us of our baggage. OxVox will push on the stadium front this year, there is real conversations to be had, once the club board have evaluated the position for themselves, and for solutions to be found. I believe that the stadium can be resolved if people are willing to put the time and energy into it.

GY's point about the financial situation is very relevant. No one will take on a £10m debt - even though the Fans Forum addressed those questions. I think everyone knows that.

As to the league situation, signing 21+ players (most on loans, others who were signed on longer deals and been bombed off) - playing nearly 40 of them, it is no wonder we are where we are. Daryl Eales has funded that in the main and in my view he has been let down badly. The club now need to be strong and make their decisions and stick by them. I hope we see some strong leadership from the owner as we all need it.
Snake
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Re: Consistency

Post by Snake »

Comforting to know that the current management have a plan in place to hang around next season and get the team out of the Conference if the worst happens. Do they know how much it cost WPL to get out of it? Care to share with Us what their plan is? Is it a better plan than Nick Merry walking into the pub at away games and buying drinks for everyone?

Ditto about the Stadium plan. Without knowing what it is, then how can we put ‘time and energy’ into supporting it? Do we all go out and buy Euromillion lottery tickets? And if it’s based on anything the current County Council Leader has told you he can deliver on I suggest you go back to the drawing board.

The last stadium move was based on a fragile Labour majority in the City that would have collapsed had fans put forward election candidates, the only venture capitalist willing to take a punt on it, and the silver bullet of Planning Policy 17. Without those three factors it would not have happened.
GodalmingYellow
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Re: Consistency

Post by GodalmingYellow »

Brahma Bull wrote:OxVox will be growing it's membership in the coming 12 months. It is a key objective moving forward.

FWIW, it's worth repeating that OxVox's relationship with Lenagan had probably been the best relationship the Trust has ever had with any owner. Vitally, it questioned the club on a bi-daily basis about ideas, issues and concerns of fans. Some got stick for our perceived closeness but we regularly helped with decision making and even decisions made, were changed after speaking to the Trust. Homophobia, Ticket Prices where we were consulted regularly and some of the proposals taken on - others weren't and we made our feelings known etc.

We now have a different relationship. We have new people who need to understand the committee and its personalities and vice-versa. We are getting to know Daryl, Mark and their team. It's a work in progress. They work differently to Lenagan and that may be a good thing.

The club will not die if we are relegated. I get frustrated with the very suggestion. It's the easy answer, the easy and lazy way out to rid us of our baggage. OxVox will push on the stadium front this year, there is real conversations to be had, once the club board have evaluated the position for themselves, and for solutions to be found. I believe that the stadium can be resolved if people are willing to put the time and energy into it.

GY's point about the financial situation is very relevant. No one will take on a £10m debt - even though the Fans Forum addressed those questions. I think everyone knows that.

As to the league situation, signing 21+ players (most on loans, others who were signed on longer deals and been bombed off) - playing nearly 40 of them, it is no wonder we are where we are. Daryl Eales has funded that in the main and in my view he has been let down badly. The club now need to be strong and make their decisions and stick by them. I hope we see some strong leadership from the owner as we all need it.
As usual, I like most of what you say BB. However, your confidence in the survival of the club in a second spell in the Conference is well over-egged.

We all know from experience of ourselves and other clubs, that getting up from the Conference is incredibly difficult, costly and time consuming.

How long would any owner, let alone someone with no real connection to the club, be prepared to gift, and yes I mean gift, £2-3m per season to OUFC, for however long it takes to get out of the Conference, with £10m debt already in play? I don't think even a generous Mr Eales would be prepared to do that. He might have a lot of money, but it isn't a bottomless pit, and at the end of the day, he is ultimately a businessman. What makes it worse is that I have very little faith in Appleton to keep OUFC from the clutches of the Conference harpies. If we survive, it will be despite Appleton, not because of him.
Brahma Bull
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Re: Consistency

Post by Brahma Bull »

I am not sure I am over-egging it. I had conversations last night at our FEB Committee Meeting where I think I will find it difficult to justify carrying buying a season ticket for two people and watching turgid football. I am scared to death of relegation. I am scared to death of what next season will bring with MAAP if he continues to show no improvement.

As for the costs. We ALL know the figures. It will add another £3m I predict to the mounting of debt......which one day will be written off.........! We will lose FL money, we will lose gate money, we will need to trim our growing backroom staff and infrastructure or find ways forward on settlements, we will say goodbye to players who no doubt have relegation release clauses, we will need to replace them with a different sort of DNA. We will have to keep Andy Whing.

Crowds of 4k max I reckon to begin with and a big rent to carry on paying.
Kairdiff Exile
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Re: Consistency

Post by Kairdiff Exile »

Brahma Bull wrote:...we will say goodbye to players who no doubt have relegation release clauses, we will need to replace them with a different sort of DNA. We will have to keep Andy Whing.
A good line, and it made me laugh, but I think you're being harsh in Whingy. A player like him has a place in a side, provided they have different sorts of players and consistency (that word again) around them. He's not been in the best form, but he really isn't the problem IMHO.

Other than that, I agreed with pretty much every word of your post. Carry on. :D
GodalmingYellow
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Re: Consistency

Post by GodalmingYellow »

Brahma Bull wrote:I am not sure I am over-egging it. I had conversations last night at our FEB Committee Meeting where I think I will find it difficult to justify carrying buying a season ticket for two people and watching turgid football. I am scared to death of relegation. I am scared to death of what next season will bring with MAAP if he continues to show no improvement.

As for the costs. We ALL know the figures. It will add another £3m I predict to the mounting of debt......which one day will be written off.........! We will lose FL money, we will lose gate money, we will need to trim our growing backroom staff and infrastructure or find ways forward on settlements, we will say goodbye to players who no doubt have relegation release clauses, we will need to replace them with a different sort of DNA. We will have to keep Andy Whing.

Crowds of 4k max I reckon to begin with and a big rent to carry on paying.
That £3m is added to the existing £10m, making £13m. And that assumes returning to FL at the first attempt, which we all know is very unrealistic. Make it another 3 seasons and we are looking at a non-league club with £20m of debts. Even at Championship level that would be difficult.

Darryl Eales is not going to underwrite that. And nor is anyone else. Mr E has been very generous with his money, but his raison d'etre is not that clear. Being prepared to accept losses, doesn't mean being prepared to underwite any and all losses forever and a day. Everyone has their limit, and relegation may well just be a step too far.
tomoufc
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Re: Consistency

Post by tomoufc »

Relegation to the conference carries a serious risk of the club going under. That must be recognised.
&quotI've been a slave to football. It follows you home, it follows you everywhere, and eats into your family life. But every working man misses out on some things because of his job. &quot
Snake
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Re: Consistency

Post by Snake »

It’s recognised I’d have thought, which is why I keep asking about Plan B if the long shot with the bookies (who are usually right so relax) happens.
Jimski
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Re: Consistency

Post by Jimski »

Any predictions on where we'd be now if the fans had instead formed a phoenix club at the time Kassam stepped in? I'm starting to wonder if we might be better off. I look at AFC Wimbledon (and even FC United) and think "what if?"

(The reason I mention this is it shouldn't be disregarded if/when the whole thing explodes again.)
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