How many points will secure a play-off place?

Anything yellow and blue

What points total will secure a play-off place?

Poll ended at Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:47 am

72 or less
1
4%
73
2
9%
74
3
13%
75
3
13%
76
4
17%
77
4
17%
78
1
4%
79
4
17%
80
0
No votes
81
0
No votes
82
0
No votes
83 or more
1
4%
 
Total votes: 23

Pe├▒a Oxford United
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1760
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:13 am

How many points will secure a play-off place?

Post by Pe├▒a Oxford United » Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:47 am

I reckon people always over-estimate this: I'm going for 76 and I imagine that's probably too many anyway.

The winning total will be defined as one point more than the final total of whichever club finishes sixth.

Please make a posting stating the figure you have voted for.

Predictions to be made before Tuesday night's games kick off.
Last edited by Pe├▒a Oxford United on Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
entirely disenchanted

Pe├▒a Oxford United
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1760
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:13 am

Post by Pe├▒a Oxford United » Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:48 am

Also could somebody with moderating power remove the typo in the question? Ta.
entirely disenchanted

admin
Site Admin
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 8:34 am

Post by admin » Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:50 am

Seeing as you asked so nicely...

Pe├▒a Oxford United
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1760
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:13 am

Post by Pe├▒a Oxford United » Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:06 am

Thanking you kindly. Was it admin who voted for 74?
entirely disenchanted

Shoobedoo
Puberty
Posts: 375
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2007 12:34 am
Location: Behind the bike shed

Post by Shoobedoo » Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:16 am

No, it were me. I can see all the playoff candidates continuing to drop points. Morecambe seem to be the only team with anything remotely resembling consistency at the moment (other than Dagenham of course).
I think 74 might still be on the high side.

Pe├▒a Oxford United
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1760
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:13 am

Post by Pe├▒a Oxford United » Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:24 am

So....sigh .....who voted for 79?
entirely disenchanted

Mally
Grumpy old git
Posts: 2564
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 9:32 am
Location: Thame

Post by Mally » Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:46 am

I've gone for 77. Here's the logic:

Average required over the past 4 years is 72 points in a 42 game season.

Average points per game at 72 points is approximately 1.7.

4 additional games this season at 1.7 points is 6.8 so lets say 7 which gives a total of 79 points.

Discount this by 2 points to allow for the fact that D&ampR are running away with the title and eating up points from other teams and you get to:

77 points

dr ceri
Brat
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 4:50 pm

dr ceri

Post by dr ceri » Mon Apr 02, 2007 11:55 am

I've gone for 76 points, I agree with Mally's reasoning but I think there's an unusual amount of inconsistency amongst the play off contenders that will drag the tally needed down a notch.

scooter
Dashing young thing
Posts: 649
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 3:35 pm

Post by scooter » Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:14 pm

75

A-Ro
Grumpy old git
Posts: 2594
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Beset by fools and ne'er do wells.

Re: How many points will secure a play-off place?

Post by A-Ro » Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:19 pm

&quotPeña Oxford United&quot wrote:Please make a posting stating the figure you have voted for.
Always read the question before you start to answer.

I voted for 73

Mooro
Grumpy old git
Posts: 3010
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 5:32 pm
Location: Hellenic/Spartan border

Post by Mooro » Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:52 pm

I've kept it on the high side at 78 as my own predictions from a month ago have consistently kept it at 80/81 but I am aware that after a period where there were a lot of games between the big 8, many sides are moving into a string of games against the lower sides which are the games they should win but have been throwing points away in so far.

Which is a long winded way of saying, I predict higher, I actually suspect lower, but I've ended up with a compromise which I firmly do not actually believe in at all....

boris
Grumpy old git
Posts: 2786
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 12:44 pm
Location: The house with no door

Post by boris » Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:58 pm

77 for me, using pretty much the same reasoning as Mally, but also taking into account that it's equally tight at the bottom, which means that a larger number of teams will be fighting for their survival, leading to more shock results (like us losing to Northwich, St Albans, and Stafford - or won't they be shocks?). So actually 77 could be a bit on the high side, but having already cast my vote I can't cast another one.

admin
Site Admin
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 8:34 am

Post by admin » Mon Apr 02, 2007 1:00 pm

However, I can! 75 for me (meaning the answer will inevitably be 76).

GodalmingYellow
Senile
Posts: 5178
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 10:22 am

Re:

Post by GodalmingYellow » Mon Apr 02, 2007 1:54 pm

&quotPeña Oxford United&quot wrote:So....sigh .....who voted for 79?
So...sigh... that would be me...sigh. Seems I'm not alone....sigh.

Same reasoning as Mally but I see no reason to discount.

Isaac
Dashing young thing
Posts: 539
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 9:32 am

Post by Isaac » Mon Apr 02, 2007 2:06 pm

I've gone for 74, things often go a bit weird in the last few games of the season.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests