Cods Wallop

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Dr Bob
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Cods Wallop

Post by Dr Bob »

There have been more posts recently about matches that have not taken place than those that have. So here goes.

Clear-cut chances. We are just not creating enough of these. On MotD earlier, the analysis of why Sheffield United had scored so few goals emphasised the number of crossing opportunities that were not taken, with players instead going back, around and across the pitch. It looked very familiar.

Then again - when good chances do come our way, we seem unable to take them. Of course the saved penalty yesterday was the most obvious, but other great opportunities have gone begging in earlier matches. When so few are created, the pressure to take those that do come along is even greater - which might feed back into why some are being missed...

The opposition. RadOx suggested that we have had a run of away games against top teams. This is simply an admission of our inadequacy, because if we were seriously going to compete, we should be one of those top teams, able to match those we have played.

The squad. KR managed to contradict himself yesterday post-match, claiming the squad was good enough whilst also making a big thing of naming the players we have out. The post-match podcast also made the point that some players were still being selected who were simply not performing. Give Stevie K a job...

That brings me to Sean Clare. He let Madden, of all Fleetwood's players, have the freedom of his side of the box for their second. Anybody keeping count of how many goals this season have come from the opponents' attacking left side?

KR has lost the dressing room, some are now asking. Of course we cannot say for sure. What bothers me is that rather than having players and a team that should be doing well but are not (suggesting they are not trying), I am more concerned that they are not up to it. We have only lost one significant player in the transfer window, but last season our form was tailing off before March and, frankly, we were lucky to get through the play-offs. Of the new signings, nuff said about Clare, Winnall is yet to be seen, McGuane has flattered to deceive and Del Boy is young. Shodipo was one of the few bright sparks yesterday, both going forwards and in defence. Atkinson breaking down in training is worrying. CamBran having an eye problem serious enough not to talk about in public is worrying. I thought Long was really good yesterday, but he cannot cover both Atkinson and Clare at the same time.

Some games this season our possession stats have been way down - which would not matter if we were making the most of the possession we do have. But if we have the ball less and are not doing more with it we are in trouble. Does all that mean the players are no longer playing for KR and his system, or simply that we are not good enough to challenge for honours this season? No idea...
Isaac
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Re: Cods Wallop

Post by Isaac »

There are obviously a few problems, but I don't agree that we're not creating any chances. Expected goals (which I don't think is necessarily that important but is occasionally interesting) suggests we create a few - see this table https://experimental361.com/2020/11/01/ ... -oct-2020/

Also shows that we concede a high percentage of goals for each chance. So this shows us what we know already, i.e. Eastwood is out of form and defensively we're dodgy.

This tends to agree with the pattern of the last few games, we have a lot of the ball, create some chances and miss them. Then the opposition take their opportunity.
I certainly don't think it's time to be thinking about kicking out the manager. 6 out of 8 games away from home, some weird last minute postponements and for money alone it'll cost far too much given he's just signed a longer contract but also I think he has credit in the bank. If you look at our success pre-lockdown last season it was mostly around Eastwood, Dickie, Gorrin, Brannagan, Henry, Taylor.

Obviously the failure to replace Dickie is hurting us and valid criticism of Robinson, but Eastwood and Henry have lost form/confidence. Gorrin and Brannagan haven't played in the same team this season and Taylor is stuck on his own playing 90 minutes twice a week which is likely to limit is effectiveness.
So on the assumption that Eastwood/Henry will return to form and Brannagan will return to fitness we could still get into the play-offs, but it feels a very long shot at the moment.
Dr Bob
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Re: Cods Wallop

Post by Dr Bob »

To be clear, I am absolutely not advocating getting rid of KR. I report the fact that others question whether he has lost the dressing room. To the extent that I can tell, I do not think so. I think it would be damaging to get rid of him, quite apart from the cost. Expected goals is interesting, but it needs more information to be interpreted with any degree of validity. For example, whilst we know we have had a very unsettled defence, how many goals conceded have come down our right channel? How many shots shots on goal were clear goal-scoring opportunities (at this point I remember the stat that we hold the record for most shots against Man City in a single game...). But as you say, what all this does is confirm some rather clear and obvious failings...
Kernow Yellow
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Re: Cods Wallop

Post by Kernow Yellow »

It's been clear since the start of the season that Clare is not a right back. Robinson wants patience while he turns him into one, but my patience is wearing thin. Nothing against him as a footballer, but he isn't a defender.

Kelly is another who doesn't seem suited to the position he's playing. Not that I know where a better one would be for him - he seems to like spraying the ball around without doing too much of the muck and nettles stuff.

But I agree with Dr Bob about chances - I don't care what the stats say, we never really looked like scoring on Saturday. Yet the defence parts to allow the opposition to score at least twice a game. Camps' goal might have been a great strike, but why did Gorrin not make any kind of effort to stop the shot coming in? And Fleetwood weren't particularly good, so I'm not buying the 'tough fixture' argument this time.

Yes, we have Atkinson and Brannagan to come back, and if Henry, Taylor and Eastwood all rediscover some form as well we could be in a better place. but that's a lot of ifs. And we still desperately need to sort the defence out. I'd take 19th place now if offered.
OtmoorYellow
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Re: Cods Wallop

Post by OtmoorYellow »

Love the thread title!

KR has lots of credit in the bank. Last season was our most successful for a very long time. And we know the damage that changing the manager does.

For me, the issue we have is lack of quality in depth in the squad. We lose 3 or 4 regulars to injury, and the replacements available are just not to the same standard. Add into that the loss Of Dickie and Mackie, the attempted conversion of a midfielder to right back, and loss of form of a top notch goalkeeper, and the pressure will inevitably be on.

Where I do have criticism of KR is that it is taking a very long time to mould the replacements into the framework used for the first choice players. By now, they all ought to be up to speed on the style we play.

On our players, I am yet to be convinced that our centre backs are good enough. Atkinson is probably being pushed beyond his capability, and Moore was only just good enough when alongside Dickie. As we can all see Clare is no right back. We have too many defensive weaknesses at the back all at once. Then we have our 2 most important midfielders out of action, which means a weakened midfield that exposes the weakened defence.
Kairdiff Exile
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Re: Cods Wallop

Post by Kairdiff Exile »

Agree, OY. And I'd add that if you don't drop Simon Eastwood when his confidence is shot and he's regularly costing us a goal every game, when do you drop him? We keep hearing good things about Stevens and how "he is determined to take his chance next time it comes around" - so why not give him a month's run of games now, when he clearly can't do worse than the other bloke?
Radley Rambler
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Re: Cods Wallop

Post by Radley Rambler »

Kairdiff Exile wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:52 pm Agree, OY. And I'd add that if you don't drop Simon Eastwood when his confidence is shot and he's regularly costing us a goal every game, when do you drop him? We keep hearing good things about Stevens and how "he is determined to take his chance next time it comes around" - so why not give him a month's run of games now, when he clearly can't do worse than the other bloke?
Jerome made a good point re dropping Eastwood pre-match. He said if you drop him after a clanger and then Stevens comes in and drops a clanger, where do you go from there? If however, Stevens has two excellent games in the cup, you can pick him on merit and it's a much more positive replacement - something to be said for that imho.

As for the game, it was so frustrating. We look porous at the back and how many clear cut chances did we have on Saturday, I'm struggling to think of any, penalty aside. I think we should assume Brannagan is out until at least January and Atkinson looks like he's got the sort of injury that is one quick hip twist away from re-occuring at any time.

We have lost Dickie, Browne and Holland over the summer and now Brannagan for an extended period. We have not adequately replaced the three summer losses when we could. We are a mid-table team this year and for me that's ok given what else is going on. Part of me doesn't want a promotion season on iFollow, it just wouldn't be the same.

Stephen Kinniburgh spoke very well on Saturday post-match. He was very direct about Clare's ability as a right back and his lack of application when 2-0 down. He also said that when he played for us, he knew that if he under-performed, Mark Creighton would be waiting for him in the dressing room and that was motivation enough. We need a gnarly, experienced, slightly dirty and scary centre back desperately.
Kairdiff Exile
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Re: Cods Wallop

Post by Kairdiff Exile »

Radley Rambler wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:39 pm
Kairdiff Exile wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:52 pm Agree, OY. And I'd add that if you don't drop Simon Eastwood when his confidence is shot and he's regularly costing us a goal every game, when do you drop him? We keep hearing good things about Stevens and how "he is determined to take his chance next time it comes around" - so why not give him a month's run of games now, when he clearly can't do worse than the other bloke?
Jerome made a good point re dropping Eastwood pre-match. He said if you drop him after a clanger and then Stevens comes in and drops a clanger, where do you go from there?
Disagree. Perfect example of "goalkeeper exceptionalism" - you wouldn't make that argument for any other position on the pitch, and I don't think Eastwood should be any different. Stevens has done well in the games he's played both pre-season and in cups; promise him a run of 4-5 games, and if he makes mistakes then give him chance to bounce back (like Eastwood has had ad infinitum since the first playoff game).
Radley Rambler wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:39 pm Stephen Kinniburgh spoke very well on Saturday post-match. He was very direct about Clare's ability as a right back and his lack of application when 2-0 down. He also said that when he played for us, he knew that if he under-performed, Mark Creighton would be waiting for him in the dressing room and that was motivation enough. We need a gnarly, experienced, slightly dirty and scary centre back desperately.
Completely agree - and said as much three weeks ago. I know it's easy in hindsight, but why the ruddy hell didn't we address this obvious deficiency before the transfer window ended? I know KR is talking about a free agent, but they need to a) be good and b) get up to speed (in terms of fitness and working with their teammates) very quickly indeed now.
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