L'éléphant dans la pièce

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YF Dan
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L'éléphant dans la pièce

Post by YF Dan »

Ok, so I'm generally a bit pessamistic about lots of things now, so maybe this is a result of me being in a negative space.

But, honestly, how does our club (or any lower league club) survive this?

We have NO income to speak of.

Incoming revenue:
Season tickets - the club has been quiet on how many we've sold (well, I can't find a number by googling quickly).
ifollow - the recent post by the Colchester chairman seemed to spell out how this isn't a cash cow, not though any of us expect it to be.
Merch sales: (interesting that the away shirt is still pre-order only, and what of the third shirt?)
Anything from community use of the training ground?
Player sales (inc add ons)

Outgoing:
Whatever KR's endless wittering, there's no way we have a small wage bill.
Rent (although presumably the conference facilty/hotels are now losing money? Wonder if this will change FKs position?? Maybe for another thread?)
Covid Testing
Matchday security
Travel
AOB

With this season now almost certain to be fan-free, how long have we got?

And what happens if/when COVID hits the club? Or our opponents? We could easily go months without a game.

How many clubs can survive this season? When one goes, I fear it will be a domino. How many teams need to survive to constitute a valid season? Are the last three standing promoted?

The furlough kept many clubs alive through the spring and summer. But you can't furlough and play matches.

So we're relying on a) the Premier League and their well-known benevolence to the most needy and b) the government, and their well-known benevolence to the most needy.

If you were, for instance, Manchester United, it's more in your interests to kill off the smaller clubs, so local kids have even less choice of who to support. Or perhaps the generous PL giants buy us and turn us into a feeder club/youth team for them.

And are lower league clubs, who outspend their means every season (and some of whom vote against a wage cap) really a government priority?

I'm not writing this knowing what the answers are. But when I hear fans and manager demanding we sign back-up centre backs, left backs and pacy left wingers I cringe. Because I know we can't afford it. And these players we are demanding the club sign are only assets when they're playing, and they're only assets if there are teams out there that want to sign them, and they'll only sign them if they have opponents to play.

And, of course, the big boys also know, if we go out of business, our assets become free agents.

We don't need any more players. If anything, I'd start off-loading now those who realistically aren't going to feature, or make us money in the future. I don't care about how we perform on the field, because I don't think this season will finish. And if it does finish, and we're still afloat and not saddled with unpayable debt to our owners, I'd consitute that as a huge success. And even if we finish bottom of the remaining clubs, we won't get relegated because there won't be enough clubs left to worry about relegation and promotion.

Sorry for the gloom.
OtmoorYellow
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Re: L'éléphant dans la pièce

Post by OtmoorYellow »

I think many of us are in fairly negative places at the moment, even if many won't admit it.

My thoughts are primarily about how our country, population and living standards will survive first and foremost. Without a vaccine, and with many people not taking the pandemic sufficiently seriously, the situation feels potentially apocalyptic. There's no guarantee that even a vaccine will provide long term benefits.

Football is a very good analogous microcosm of wider society.

I can't see supporters at football grounds this season, at least. For how long will season ticket holders continue to finance the club for little return? For how long will Tiger continue to underwrite the club with no prospect of progress?

I think we sold a fair number of season tickets. My feeling is around the 3,000 mark. Given normal crowds of 6,000+, and with walk up tickets costing a lot more than season tickets, well over half of our biggest source of revenue has disappeared.

No doubt wages have gone down, and we will have benefitted from the Job Retention Scheme, but that kind of change in revenue is not sustainable. Certainly not beyond this season.

And we are continuing to fund an under 21 and under 18 academy, and a training facility that cannot be used commercially.

Then there is rent. I would hope that Firoz Kassam is being realistic. Hope is all I've got.

Outside the Premier League, and a handful of Premier League supported Championship clubs, football faces collapse. It could change completely from what we have become accustomed too, and not just the ability to attend matches.

So what are the possible solution, if any?

In the short term, the EFL need to make screened subscription football matches much more widely available. And by that, I mean available on big screens, not just tablets and laptops, for those who have them. Football becomes less and less attractive to watch, the smaller the screen gets. The iFollow service isn't great. It is slow and even with high speed broadband, it buffers several times per match, which means you lose the "live" benefit. The service is slow to load too and support takes hours, rather than minutes, or God forbid seconds, to access. And the available support is usually just an apology and referral to the EFL. That isn't good enough.

If you are clever, you can hook up your laptop to a modern TV via HMDI, or for non-Apple devices via screen mirroring. But what about an EFL app for smart TVs? Or a deal with Now TV (an offshoot of Sky for very short term subscriptions)? What about a deal with Britbox for subscription access? What about a deal with cinemas for very large screen access? Or get this, what about setting up drive in cinemas to watch games?

Games are currently not accessible to enough people and it needs truly wide screen thinking to make it accessible.

In the slightly longer term, we may have to cut player numbers, teams, and/or persuade existing players to accept reduced wages, if our first team is to be protected.
Kernow Yellow
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Re: L'éléphant dans la pièce

Post by Kernow Yellow »

OtmoorYellow wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:19 am I think we sold a fair number of season tickets. My feeling is around the 3,000 mark. Given normal crowds of 6,000+, and with walk up tickets costing a lot more than season tickets, well over half of our biggest source of revenue has disappeared.
Yes and no. I'm not an ST holder, and probably normally only attend half a dozen home games each season (admittedly usually with some other family members in tow). Whereas now I'm paying a tenner to watch every match, as there's nothing else to do on Saturday afternoons! So the club will probably take more money from me this season than usual, and not have most of the associated costs of having fans in grounds.

I'm certainly suffering from general doom and gloom about the current situation. But I can't say football is taking up an awful lot of my headspace this season. I'm really missing the opportunity to catch up with mates and go to games, but I'm struggling to maintain much interest in what happens on the pitch (or behind the scenes). I'll probably keep paying those tenners though.
YF Dan
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Re: L'éléphant dans la pièce

Post by YF Dan »

OtmoorYellow wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:19 am I think many of us are in fairly negative places at the moment, even if many won't admit it.

My thoughts are primarily about how our country, population and living standards will survive first and foremost. Without a vaccine, and with many people not taking the pandemic sufficiently seriously, the situation feels potentially apocalyptic. There's no guarantee that even a vaccine will provide long term benefits.

Football is a very good analogous microcosm of wider society.
I totally agree didn't want to burden you with my wider views about life away from football!
Kairdiff Exile
Mid-life Crisis
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Re: L'éléphant dans la pièce

Post by Kairdiff Exile »

I really really miss football. But what I miss is the live experience of it (ditto music as well). I have zero interest in watching us play on my laptop every Saturday afternoon, and probably won't be motivated to pay a tenner to do so.

In the absence of OUFC, what I really want to do is go and watch some non-league games, but Welsh lockdown has meant that's not really viable (and with additional restrictions coming into place in Cardiff this weekend, it's a situation that's unlikely to change). But that's what I'd spend my money on in the current scenario - which is good news for the various non-league clubs I'd be helping, but bad news for OUFC. I suspect for many people it'll go the other way - they'll shell out for a S*y Sp*rts subscription and thus give financial support to those at the very top of the game, but not clubs in Divs 3-4 or the Conference, who are the ones who need it most.

Squaring that circle is a tough one, as the Fence End podcast boys discuss in their new episode. It'll probably require action either by the UK Government or support from the Premiership, but any support will come with strings attached. If there's a bailout from the Premiership, I'd expect B Teams or a reduction in promotion / relegation to rear their ugly heads.

None of the likely outcomes of this are good, even for clubs like ours who largely live within their means and have reasonable owners.
Dr Bob
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Re: L'éléphant dans la pièce

Post by Dr Bob »

If I keep up current practice, I shall see a lot more Oxford matches this year because I am paying for away matches as well as watching the home matches through my ST. And not having a 212 mile round trip for home games helps (savings on petrol are three times spending on away match passes), but I do that journey willingly normally because there is nothing like the actual match experience, meeting up with friends, etc. The problem for me has always been (not just a Covid thing) that watching Oxford on TV is always an unreal experience. It is as if that my not being there means the match, at the very least, does not matter - I simply cannot engage with it in a meaningful way. Given the performances during the first two league games, this has not been a bad thing, but frankly the future is bleak and even the present is depressing.

A major issue is that the Premier League is basically about money (wow! Not thought about that before....) Hence the need to play matches because of the absurd amounts of TV and sponsorship money. Keeping that going is so vital to the parallel universe within which the PL operates. But below the Championship, football is about sport, competition, community, rivalry (mostly sort-of friendly), simpler pleasures. Or, to put it another way, things that matter very little to the politicians of the right. The fact that grouse shooting is an identified 'sport' that can keep going says it all, really.

As others have said, fewer clubs means more 'supporters' to sell replicas etc to. They already attract more kids to their academies than they know what to do with - and they probably see themselves as having more to do with the clubs in the top leagues in other countries than the clubs below them. On the day that Macclesfield was wound up in the High Court, pretty much all of the football headlines were about which money-engorged PL clubs were likely to be paying over the top fees and wages to which money-engorged players from other money-engorged clubs. And the fact that some of those clubs were, not so long ago, below where we are now is appalling (which is what makes Sean Dyche's recent comments so disgusting).

The chances are also that those, like our owners and the owners of so many other clubs, are themselves likely to be getting hit financially by Covid just adds to the misery and dangers we face - and the only clubs whose owners do not have to worry about such things, such is their eye-watering wealth, is those clubs that are also likely to have the biggest TV and other sponsorship deals.

I cannot imagine what this will mean for us and hundreds, thousands, of clubs down through the pyramid. But nor do I want to. Tops of pyramids need the rest of the stones to keep them up - but money has ensured that this is no longer true for football.
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