The C-word

Anything yellow and blue
Kernow Yellow
Grumpy old git
Posts: 3075
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 5:16 pm

The C-word

Post by Kernow Yellow »

Worthy of its own thread surely!
ty cobb wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:29 pm What I imagine may derail us this season is the c-virus and the impact this will have on our (already dreadful) finances. It is only a matter of time before we see games being played behind closed doors/the season postponed. Given how much we are already losing this season, the financial impact on us will be significant, especially as we would expect some big gates in the last few games. I would hope they relax the broadcasting rules so we could all pay the club to watch it on yellow player.

If any squad player gets it, from our squad or a team we will be playing, they and the rest of the team will need to self isolate and the game would likely not go ahead - just look at the Arsenal, Man City game tonight, just a hint of a problem has resulted in it being called off.

I think the situation is going to get very messy very quickly and the health of everyone will rightly take priority but this will result in some clubs going into severe financial troubles.
It's certainly a mess. The Government saying there's no scientific basis for cancelling outdoor sporting events, but clubs and leagues taking matters into their own hands (a rapidly changing situation this morning already with Arsenal, Portsmouth etc). The only way I can see to avoid a complete mess and get the season finished is for all games to be suspended for 2-3 weeks, with all clubs going into some kind of isolation. Then finish the season quickly and behind closed doors, working out some mechanism for fans to pay and watch online to try and keep revenues flowing in.

Not that football is the most pressing concern at the moment, of course. But it reflects the challenges that all communities and businesses face, with plenty of livelihoods at stake.

What I want to know is why (relatively) so many high profile people have C-19 - footballers, actors, politicians etc. Is it just that international jet-setting makes transmission more likely? Or is it that these people have private health insurance and people looking after them, so are getting tested when the rest of us aren't? And if the latter, isn't it likely that far, far more of the population have (or have had) the disease than even yesterday's figures indicate? People being asked to self-isolate due to symptoms aren't even being asked to notify the NHS, much less get tested, so I don't see how anyone can begin to estimate or analyse the spread within the population at large.
ty cobb
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1121
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 6:55 pm

Re: The C-word

Post by ty cobb »

I thought the title freefall was more apt for this than our current form (which is brilliant - Robbo should have got MOTM given how tough Feb was).

The Government seem to be following some kind of behavioual economics modelling which is people will get bored and ignore measures if introduced too early. Frankly I think this is bollocks - peoples lives are at stake here. There is a chronic lack of testing going on - even people showing symptons won't be tested unless serious and in hospital - therefore we have no clue about how many people have got it. The strategy seems to be for people to get the virus and we build up an immunity as a population - this will likely overwhelm the health service and result in many more deaths than necessary. The football situation is a perfect example of how wrong tihs govenrment is. Just yesterday they said games should go ahead as usual, now we are finding squads are infected, playing games would compound this and therefore, in line with leagues all over Europe, games will be postponed/played behind closed doors.

Everyone who can should be working from home. We should avoid social contact where possible. This article explains why

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca
Kernow Yellow
Grumpy old git
Posts: 3075
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 5:16 pm

Re: The C-word

Post by Kernow Yellow »

Yes I saw that yesterday. Though I'm not sure I should listen to one bloke on the internet rather than the Chief Medical Officer. In fact I think this is part of the problem. A bloke who wrote an article called 'How to write a funny speech' writes another one about coronavirus, and 17 million people read it and think it's gospel.

It begs more questions than it thinks it answers. The whole world could 'socially distance' for 3 weeks (or whatever is required), but then they'd stop, and the outbreak would flare up again. And then we'd have to do it all again? Without any meaningful community resistance having developed? How many times? People can't stay cooped up in their houses for ever. It's far too early to say that what China or Italy did is working better than what we're doing. I agree that our Government was slow to show leadership, and should be more explicit about what we as individuals should or shouldn't be doing. But not because some self-appointed experts on twitter have strong opinions about it.
Kairdiff Exile
Mid-life Crisis
Posts: 707
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2013 3:59 pm

Re: The C-word

Post by Kairdiff Exile »

Football League games now off. Excellent news for those of us who were annoyed that we weren't able to get to many of our games in March / April!
ty cobb
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1121
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 6:55 pm

Re: The C-word

Post by ty cobb »

Well the WHO seems to be on the same page as that one bloke on the internet as does most other European countries and the football bigwigs in this country who clearly have no faith in the advice given.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/rob ... -strategy/

Why are we taking a different approach to the rest of Europe?
Dr Bob
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1064
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:16 pm
Location: Nottingham

Re: The C-word

Post by Dr Bob »

ty cobb wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:26 pm Well the WHO seems to be on the same page as that one bloke on the internet as does most other European countries and the football bigwigs in this country who clearly have no faith in the advice given.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/rob ... -strategy/

Why are we taking a different approach to the rest of Europe?
This appears to be the government's entire approach to Brexit...
OtmoorYellow
Puberty
Posts: 444
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:35 pm

Re: The C-word

Post by OtmoorYellow »

Italy tested everyone coming in on planes and it did them no good. They have been aggressively testing as many as possible. The result has been over 6% mortality in Italy, compared to just over 1% in the UK.

Testing won't stop the spread, because by the time people show symptoms, they will already have transmitted it, and many will transmit it without even having symptoms. Testing takes far too long to be effective as well.

It is well known that corona viruses generally give the patients a certain level of future immunity. But corona viruses often return in future years, so having herd immunity may help to protect the population in future, whereas avoiding the illness may lead to higher risks in the future.

Whilst many may want to use Covid19 as a means to claim governmental failure, there is no evidence for this, and both draconian measures and herd immunity mechanisms will have inherent problems. Without being flippant,it is almost a toss of a coin to decide which route to take.

There is no point having a Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer if we don't accept and embrace their advice.

I don't think there will be pro-football for the paying public before June at the earliest, so I would guess either the season will be completed behind closed doors, or it will be delayed until late summer/autumn with paying supporters and then have a winter break.

The cost to the clubs will be astronomical if the season is concluded behind closed doors, and it is not hard to envisage some clubs struggling to survive.
Jimski
Mid-life Crisis
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 6:50 pm
Location: Oxford

Re: The C-word

Post by Jimski »

This is worth a read, and it's a lecturer in virology, so not just "some bloke on the internet":

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... -us-133583
Jimski
Mid-life Crisis
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 6:50 pm
Location: Oxford

Re: The C-word

Post by Jimski »

The main problems with this herd immunity idea are:

1. Nearly every other herd immunity is based on vaccination. So it's not like there's an obvious precedent.
2. Nobody even knows if you build up immunity to this virus through having it once.
3. And most importantly, herd immunity requires a large number of people to have the antibodies (70%-ish at least). Without a vaccine to help, that's a lot of deaths you're gonna allow at current rates.

It's gambling with people's lives without any evidence to go on.
Last edited by Jimski on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
tomoufc
Dashing young thing
Posts: 544
Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2007 1:56 pm

Re: The C-word

Post by tomoufc »

OtmoorYellow wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:06 pm Italy tested everyone coming in on planes and it did them no good. They have been aggressively testing as many as possible. The result has been over 6% mortality in Italy, compared to just over 1% in the UK.

Testing won't stop the spread, because by the time people show symptoms, they will already have transmitted it, and many will transmit it without even having symptoms. Testing takes far too long to be effective as well.

It is well known that corona viruses generally give the patients a certain level of future immunity. But corona viruses often return in future years, so having herd immunity may help to protect the population in future, whereas avoiding the illness may lead to higher risks in the future.

Whilst many may want to use Covid19 as a means to claim governmental failure, there is no evidence for this, and both draconian measures and herd immunity mechanisms will have inherent problems. Without being flippant,it is almost a toss of a coin to decide which route to take.

There is no point having a Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer if we don't accept and embrace their advice.

I don't think there will be pro-football for the paying public before June at the earliest, so I would guess either the season will be completed behind closed doors, or it will be delayed until late summer/autumn with paying supporters and then have a winter break.

The cost to the clubs will be astronomical if the season is concluded behind closed doors, and it is not hard to envisage some clubs struggling to survive.
There's no point in having a World Health Organisation if they can't generalise best practice in the interests of the global population, even if that means tacitly reprimanding crazy do nothing approaches such as our government's https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... ub2Gf3h0iI
&quotI've been a slave to football. It follows you home, it follows you everywhere, and eats into your family life. But every working man misses out on some things because of his job. &quot
Jimski
Mid-life Crisis
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 6:50 pm
Location: Oxford

Re: The C-word

Post by Jimski »

It seems there's about to be a (welcome) u-turn by the government on this now anyway (if reports are correct). On Thursday it was all "no need to stop sporting events, no strong recommendation for people to work from home if possible", then yesterday sporting bodies and firms took the matters into their own hands. Sporting events stopped. Many companies (including the one I work for) shutting or preparing to shut their offices. That seems to have convinced the government how serious others think the risks are here. If the bloody Premier League stops, you know it's serious!
recordmeister
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1808
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:34 am
Location: London

Re: The C-word

Post by recordmeister »

Kairdiff Exile wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:13 pm Football League games now off. Excellent news for those of us who were annoyed that we weren't able to get to many of our games in March / April!
Hummmm. Already lost about £6k of work with this outbreak and I expect that to double or even treble. So it’s a case of ‘too busy to make the games’, to ‘can’t afford to make the games’, to ‘no games to go to anyway now’...
OtmoorYellow
Puberty
Posts: 444
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:35 pm

Re: The C-word

Post by OtmoorYellow »

tomoufc wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:46 pm
OtmoorYellow wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:06 pm Italy tested everyone coming in on planes and it did them no good. They have been aggressively testing as many as possible. The result has been over 6% mortality in Italy, compared to just over 1% in the UK.

Testing won't stop the spread, because by the time people show symptoms, they will already have transmitted it, and many will transmit it without even having symptoms. Testing takes far too long to be effective as well.

It is well known that corona viruses generally give the patients a certain level of future immunity. But corona viruses often return in future years, so having herd immunity may help to protect the population in future, whereas avoiding the illness may lead to higher risks in the future.

Whilst many may want to use Covid19 as a means to claim governmental failure, there is no evidence for this, and both draconian measures and herd immunity mechanisms will have inherent problems. Without being flippant,it is almost a toss of a coin to decide which route to take.

There is no point having a Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer if we don't accept and embrace their advice.

I don't think there will be pro-football for the paying public before June at the earliest, so I would guess either the season will be completed behind closed doors, or it will be delayed until late summer/autumn with paying supporters and then have a winter break.

The cost to the clubs will be astronomical if the season is concluded behind closed doors, and it is not hard to envisage some clubs struggling to survive.
There's no point in having a World Health Organisation if they can't generalise best practice in the interests of the global population, even if that means tacitly reprimanding crazy do nothing approaches such as our government's https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... ub2Gf3h0iI
I'm not sure playing top trumps really works for this.

WHO provide advice to the World in general terms. Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientist provide advice specific to our country, taking account of local effects and modelling for this country. If our CMO was saying lock down everything and WHO said the opposite, I suspect many would then still claim WHO take precedence.

The advice by our officials uses modelling and timing that can never be applicable to every country, because each is at a different stage. That is not to say we should not move towards the WHO position, it is a case of when to do so..

The only fact here is that we do not know what the outcome of either scenario would be, and personally I trust most those people appointed to look after the UK.
Jimski
Mid-life Crisis
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 6:50 pm
Location: Oxford

Re: The C-word

Post by Jimski »

This really isn't a party political thing for me (I mean the other bloody parties in this country are hardly covering themselves in glory on this. It's collective failure.). It's about learning from examples that have worked. Prevent the spread as much as possible, *whatever that might mean in terms of lockdown*. Test as much as possible so you can track spread.

Instead a virologist at the Pasteur Institute (not just "some guy on twitter") sums up the implications of the UK approach:

https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/123 ... iE3BWNGoAc
Dr Bob
Middle-Aged Spread
Posts: 1064
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 2:16 pm
Location: Nottingham

Re: The C-word

Post by Dr Bob »

Jimski wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:43 pm This is worth a read, and it's a lecturer in virology, so not just "some bloke on the internet":

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... -us-133583
This seems pretty clear to me on the dangers of pursuing a 'herd immunity' approach. Talk of implementing a different response to continental European countries based on them having more cases has struck me as waiting for more cases to arise before taking additional measures to stop the spread (er...).

What this article indicates is that a delay in implementing more extreme measures might be valid if herd immunity was a reasonable approach to take, but that is an awful lot of deaths that are likely to occur on the way to reaching herd immunity...We must hope that the short term disruption limits long term problems. The difficulty for us all, but especially for Recordmeister and so many others in non-salaried positions, is not knowing how long the short run will last.

Went to our local Asda at our normal quiet time (8.15ish) yesterday morning and it was busier than the run-up to Christmas, with vast swathes of shelving empty. I can only assume that the mere threat of contracting Covid-19 is worrying people so much their bowels have become seriously loose. On the other hand, eating all that pasta they have bought might help to bung them up again. Still trying to work out why the kitchen towels had been cleaned out (ouch)...
Post Reply