Why are the bookies so confident...

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Jimski
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Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by Jimski »

... in our ability to stay up?

Yes, we've won two on the trot, and I'm feeling a lot happier now, but we're still only two points off the drop zone, and extremely inconsistent (and often poor against our direct rivals for relegation). Yet the bookies have us at around 11/2 or so to be relegated (https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... relegation). And 538 gives us just a 12% chance of going down. (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... eague-one/) Do they know something we don't?
slappy
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by slappy »

Looking at the form table, the bottom three don't look like they have it in them to get out of the relegation places, Bristol Rovers perhaps can do though. I guess there's also the remaining opponents for all the eight teams on 39 to 41 points. Perhaps some of them have a tougher run in?
Old Abingdonian
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by Old Abingdonian »

Good question - it almost makes it worse if we screw up!

I would suggest a number of factors:
• the team sheet - with Whyte & Graham on the pitch, and Browne on the bench, we have a high-quality match-day 18.
• form - Walsall, for example, are sinking like a stone
• fixture list - we have few of the better clubs left to play
• despite what we might think, Robinson's experience probably leads the bookies to have some kind of confidence
Dr Bob
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by Dr Bob »

The 6-game form table has us mid-table, but just like the full table it is extremely tight (as is to be expected, in part as it is only for 6 games...). But given how tight the full table is, not only are teams like Walsall dropping away, others like Scunthorpe and even Wycombe are not so far distant.

The next seven games include four against teams below us, plus next week at Gillingham immediately above us. Having not travelled to Blackpool and not being able to make yesterday's game, I have to trust the reports that suggest we have learned to win ugly. That, I suspect, will be crucial over these next few games...
Jimski
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by Jimski »

I guess maybe the secret is indeed in the closeness of the table? There are so many sides that could go down that the chances of any one of them going down are lower than you'd think.

538 have us as favourites in 5 of our last 11 fixtures (i.e. our chances of winning the game are seen as higher than those of our opponents), which is I guess why they are confident. (They in fact have us winning 4 and drawing 3 of our last 11, which sounds quite ambitious, but there.)
Last edited by Jimski on Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
Old Abingdonian
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by Old Abingdonian »

I think, Dr Bob, that 'winning ugly' is rather unfair to yesterday's performance. KR stuck with last week's winning line-up, so presumably he put team dynamics before logic. The first half was very stodgy, as both sides didn't want to commit forwards, knowing that a wayward midfield pass could otherwise lead to conceding. As several others have said, putting Whyte on for Garbutt transformed the side. Graham could play on his favoured left, and Whyte just has the pace and skill to unsettle the opposition, even if it sometimes comes to nothing. The other factor in yesterday's win was the unsurprising mushrooming of Sinclair's confidence once he had scored the first goal.
Dr Bob
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by Dr Bob »

Old Abingdonian wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:45 pm I think, Dr Bob, that 'winning ugly' is rather unfair to yesterday's performance. KR stuck with last week's winning line-up, so presumably he put team dynamics before logic. The first half was very stodgy, as both sides didn't want to commit forwards, knowing that a wayward midfield pass could otherwise lead to conceding. As several others have said, putting Whyte on for Garbutt transformed the side. Graham could play on his favoured left, and Whyte just has the pace and skill to unsettle the opposition, even if it sometimes comes to nothing. The other factor in yesterday's win was the unsurprising mushrooming of Sinclair's confidence once he had scored the first goal.
Ah - the dangers of relying on a small number of written comments...Thanks for the correction.
ty cobb
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by ty cobb »

I'll be very surprised if we get relegated. We have a good enough team, injury woes seemingly behind us (we had a very strong bench on Sat) and a reasonable run of fixtures if we can't stay up then something will have gone badly wrong.

With a couple of goals behind him, both good poachers goals which we have been missing all season hopefully Sinclair can start looking like a £4m (or even a £1m) striker.

Then I remember we're Oxford United and anything is possible!
Kernow Yellow
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by Kernow Yellow »

Jimski wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:10 am ... in our ability to stay up?

Yes, we've won two on the trot, and I'm feeling a lot happier now, but we're still only two points off the drop zone, and extremely inconsistent (and often poor against our direct rivals for relegation).
This is the bit that worries me most. Our next few games are very winnable on paper, but could leave us right in the shit if we mess them up! I'm still haunted by that run of results (and performances) after Christmas against three of the lowest sides in the league. We certainly can't afford a repeat of that. Having said that, I'm more confident now that we can grind out a couple of results. Those last two wins were absolutely massive. Without them the league table doesn't bear thinking about...
recordmeister
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Re: Why are the bookies so confident...

Post by recordmeister »

I’m quite liking the 25-1 odds on free falling WWFC who play Sunderland next, and are not in a good way at all...
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