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Re: Going Down??

Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:34 pm
by Hog
This is a post by TonyW which I have just lifted from the other place:

For us to go down from here, all of the following would have to happen:

a) We'd have to lose both games
b) Gillingham would have to take at least two points from their last two (they haven't won since March 10th, and have scored 1 goal in 6 April games)
c) Wimbledon would have to take four points from their last three (one of which is away to Wigan)
d) Walsall would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last eight, and that was home against Bury)
e) Oldham would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last nine)
f) Rochdale would need to win two of their last three (though obviously one would be the game against us)

Basically we'd need for five teams that have been bad all season to suddenly all turn it around at the same time.

So whilst we're not mathematically safe yet, it's probably a 1 in a thousand shot from here (even most of the bookies have us at 66-1 for relegation now)


I hope he's right!

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:28 am
by Radley Rambler
Yes - he is right albeit a couple of those teams could get one less point and survive if they won one of their matches by a substantial margin or we got tonked in our two games due to goal difference.

Relegation looks very unlikely and we'll know more at 21.35 tonight.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:47 pm
by Kernow Yellow
Well actually he's wrong. We could theoretically draw one of our games and still go down. And we won't be safe at 21.35 (or even 21.45) tonight whatever happens.

As to the rest of it:

b) Gillingham would have to take at least two points from their last two (they haven't won since March 10th, and have scored 1 goal in 6 April games)
Gills play Plymouth at home, who surrendered meekly at Northampton on Saturday and seem to be running out of steam. Their other game is at Bristol Rovers, who have nothing to play for.

c) Wimbledon would have to take four points from their last three (one of which is away to Wigan)
and one of which is at home to Bury. The other is at Doncaster. Perfectly doable.

d) Walsall would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last eight, and that was home against Bury)

They host Northampton and visit Fleetwood. Certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility. Even Bradford, their third opponents, have stuttered badly of late.

e) Oldham would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last nine)

Doncaster, Northampton and Southend. Again, not really the toughest set of opponents if you're scrapping for survival.

f) Rochdale would need to win two of their last three (though obviously one would be the game against us)

Their other two games are at home. Even if they lose tonight they could still overtake us with a modest goal difference swing.

Of course I don't think all this is going to happen. The bookies odds are like that for a reason. But individually all of those clubs will fancy their chances of getting the results needed. Let's make sure we do what's needed to stay clear of it. We could even finish top half if we pulled our finger out!

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:50 pm
by Jimski
Yeah, if you look at the predicted table and change their prediction of us drawing with Rochdale into a loss for us, then we survive on goal difference. All it would then take is a tonking by Blackburn to send us down. And that's with tweaking only the results in our games, and no others.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:56 pm
by Radley Rambler
Kernow Yellow wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:47 pm
Well actually he's wrong. We could theoretically draw one of our games and still go down. And we won't be safe at 21.35 (or even 21.45) tonight whatever happens.

As to the rest of it:

b) Gillingham would have to take at least two points from their last two (they haven't won since March 10th, and have scored 1 goal in 6 April games)
Gills play Plymouth at home, who surrendered meekly at Northampton on Saturday and seem to be running out of steam. Their other game is at Bristol Rovers, who have nothing to play for.

c) Wimbledon would have to take four points from their last three (one of which is away to Wigan)
and one of which is at home to Bury. The other is at Doncaster. Perfectly doable.

d) Walsall would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last eight, and that was home against Bury)

They host Northampton and visit Fleetwood. Certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility. Even Bradford, their third opponents, have stuttered badly of late.

e) Oldham would need to win two of their last three (they've only won one of their last nine)

Doncaster, Northampton and Southend. Again, not really the toughest set of opponents if you're scrapping for survival.

f) Rochdale would need to win two of their last three (though obviously one would be the game against us)

Their other two games are at home. Even if they lose tonight they could still overtake us with a modest goal difference swing.

Of course I don't think all this is going to happen. The bookies odds are like that for a reason. But individually all of those clubs will fancy their chances of getting the results needed. Let's make sure we do what's needed to stay clear of it. We could even finish top half if we pulled our finger out!
Fair point = well spotted!

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:05 pm
by Jimski
Tonight I can only really see home wins for Rochdale and Oldham. I would consider it a successful evening if just one of them failed to win.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:40 pm
by Mr T
Has someone got access to the stats from previous seasons? Interested to know how many points the teams finishing 21st have got each time...
Would love us to be safe before we head to Ewood Park

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:48 pm
by Jimski
Ok, so that was a very good evening for us!

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:49 pm
by Hog
Jimski wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:05 pm
Tonight I can only really see home wins for Rochdale and Oldham. I would consider it a successful evening if just one of them failed to win.
Well they both failed to win and Oldham actually took a bit of a tonking at home. If we take only a point against Rochdale it will mean Oldham would have to win their last two and overturn a GD which is -12 worse than ours.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:50 pm
by Radley Rambler
Cracking results tonight, 1 point from two home games for Oldham and Rochdale - lest we forget, these teams are in the bottom eight for a reason, they aren't very good.

We'll be fine now.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:54 pm
by Jimski
And the added bonus of Franchise being effectively relegated. Hope Wimbledon stay up.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:02 pm
by Werthers Original
I dont really, I’m not keen on Wimbledon, the hipster hoofers!

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:27 pm
by Radley Rambler
We're now 200/1 to go down.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:27 am
by OUFC4eva
A point versus ‘Dale and we’re guaranteed safety.

I am pleased that we go into the game where we have to be proactive - we must not sit back. Let’s have a go at them.

Re: Going Down??

Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:13 am
by Kernow Yellow
As a matter of interest, when was the last time we were involved in relegation worries this close to the end of the season and survived? It seems like quite a novel experience! Was it that Tranmere game in 92?