Going Down??

Anything yellow and blue
YF Dan
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Re: Going Down??

Post by YF Dan » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:44 pm

I saw this coming in September. I sent a friend a text before the Pompey home win saying I thought we were in trouble this season.

We had an odd-squad: Some good players who were part of a great team who'd seen their mates leave and probably fancied a bit of that themselves; a few duff signings from the previous regime who knew they didn't fit; a load of dodgy signings who knew nothing of the league they were joining, some of whom were clearly unfit and seriously injury prone; and no-one who seemed capable of rippling the onion bag. And a striker, while not a brilliant one but a 16-goal one from last season, sent out on loan and replaced by Mehmeti and Obika (7 goals between them).

Yes, Pep didn't have a pre-season to build a squad. But there is no excuse for MOST of his signings. Xemi, for instance, paid off after a handful of appearances, given a three-year contract. Williamson? Tiendalli? Peklaski?

Then the mega-blows: Curtis Nelson's injury. Rob Hall at the same time. Then Payne's recall (if Payne was happy, do you think Huddersfield would have forced him to move?). If you're looking for a turning point in our form, it wasn't Pep's sacking. It was when Nelson's achilles snapped, and when Payne moved up North.

We've offered no fight ever when it's mattered. Any team that has battled us has won. We won a few games in the first half of the season when teams let us play. But that was never going to survive in the second half of the season when teams start scrapping for survival. Word was always going to get out that we were a soft touch. We lost in the two cups in the first round with barely a whimper. That deflated everyone. To lose to Cheltenham having been 3-1 up? There was a big warning right then.

Port Vale. Wigan. Bury. Walsall x 2. Aarrggh.

Sacking Clotet wasn't a mistake. It seemed no-one liked him at the club, and his signings alone were a sackable offence. And of course a 7-nil home defeat. But to wait 6 weeks to replace him was a calamity. We should have replaced him quickly and given the new person a chance to fiddle with the squad. Meanwhile our new owner just wanted to have meetings with famous football names of the past to appease his ego, promised a 'Wow" factor, presented us eventually with anything but. (I'm not passing any comment of KR btw, I'm even discounting Charlton fans' obvious delight that he's left... KR has been dealt an awful hand and doesn't deserve to be judged yet. He was also given a poisoned challis after Tiger's big promises). The only WOW I can see about his appointment so far is that we're With O Wins.

It is still in our hands. A win and a draw might well be enough, especially if we can beat Rochdale (although I really can't see it as they're in great form and have more fire in their belly than we seem to.) But a goal drought is the last thing we need right now, and yet it seems to be happening. I'd play Henry as a striker if he recovers from his injury.

We can do it. We need an early goal (preferably two) against bloody Southend, preferably from a striker. But my god, I'm worried.

Jimski
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Jimski » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:56 pm

Sacking a manager (whoever they are) when you are in the upper half of the table is a very "modern football" thing to do, and it's also bloody stupid, unless they have committed a major transgression (and winding up some of our less patient fans with a shushing gesture does not count). It was hard to warm to Pep, and I have to confess that at the time, while I thought it was a very odd sacking, I didn't mourn too much. But objectively it was bloody stupid - not Scunthorpe level ridiculous, but still stupid.

Anyway, we're in real trouble. I don't fancy our chances, even though we did look pretty good at times last night. It still took some excellent saves by Eastwood to keep us in it though.

OtmoorYellow
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Re: Going Down??

Post by OtmoorYellow » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:44 am

The Oldham result (and performance) on Saturday was a hammer blow to our relegation fight.

The Fleetwood result (despite the performance) on Tuesday was like a kick (with run up) to the plums.

If we do go down, and I desperately hope we don't, I have huge confidence in Robinson to get us back up at the first attempt.

The way we played against Fleetwood was probably the best we have played since September/October time.

Pep Clotet left us really in the shit. It is all too easy to look at the table and point fingers, but that doesn't recognise the underlying problems. Yes we have had a bad season for injuries, but much more fundamental than that has been the incredibly poor range of players that Pep brought in, and the entirely ineffective (at this level) continental style of play stringing 1001 passes waiting for a gap to appear, rather than creating gaps, and inevitably losing possession when said poor players lose the ball. That has been the essence of this season, and whether Clotet had been sacked or not, I have no doubt that we would still be in the same position we are now. The rot had set in way before Clotet was sacked. Having said that, the incredibly slow takeover and resulting delay in appointing a replacement manager clearly had a big effect on the time available for the replacement to work his magic.

The performance against Fleetwood was a massive change to what we have seen for months, from pretty every player in the side and to be able to drag that performance out of this set of players, is strong indicator of KRs abilities.

ty cobb
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Re: Going Down??

Post by ty cobb » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:49 pm

The rewriting of history by those on here who wanted Pep out is reaching ridiculous levels. The way we played against Fleetwood was the best we have played since September/October? Really? Losing one nil at home against a team that has struggled all season had a better performance than:

- Pboro 1 - Oxford 4 (Sep 30)
- B Rovers 0 - Oxford 1 (Oct 14)
- Plymouth 0 - Oxford 4 (Nov 18)

In 9 days in Jan under Pep we won more games than we have managed in the THREE MONTHS since Pep has gone. We were 10th in the table when he left and in with a good shout for another trip to Wembley.

Yes there was an issue with some of the players he brought in, others have been pretty good, Jack Payne, Ricardinho, Henry are all good players. Look at Appleton's first season - plenty of duds in there. Wilder went through a load of questionable signings, all managers do. Any manager should be judged on results, for a first year in management Peps were good especially given his best players were sold with the money not reinvested.

Anyhow, he's gone on and improved a bigger team than us in the Championship. If he really was so useless why does Monk struggle without him. If we go down this season those fans who wanted him should take their share of the blame in this.

OtmoorYellow
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Re: Going Down??

Post by OtmoorYellow » Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:35 pm

ty cobb wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:49 pm
The rewriting of history by those on here who wanted Pep out is reaching ridiculous levels. The way we played against Fleetwood was the best we have played since September/October? Really? Losing one nil at home against a team that has struggled all season had a better performance than:

- Pboro 1 - Oxford 4 (Sep 30)
- B Rovers 0 - Oxford 1 (Oct 14)
- Plymouth 0 - Oxford 4 (Nov 18)

In 9 days in Jan under Pep we won more games than we have managed in the THREE MONTHS since Pep has gone. We were 10th in the table when he left and in with a good shout for another trip to Wembley.

Yes there was an issue with some of the players he brought in, others have been pretty good, Jack Payne, Ricardinho, Henry are all good players. Look at Appleton's first season - plenty of duds in there. Wilder went through a load of questionable signings, all managers do. Any manager should be judged on results, for a first year in management Peps were good especially given his best players were sold with the money not reinvested.

Anyhow, he's gone on and improved a bigger team than us in the Championship. If he really was so useless why does Monk struggle without him. If we go down this season those fans who wanted him should take their share of the blame in this.
Haha. I honestly think Ty (and absolutely no offence intended), that if I said black was black, you would claim it was white. I guess we just see football from very different angles. I also hope I've chosen my words better than last time we discussed on here as I was unwell at the time and rather unfriendly, for which I am sorry.

The result did not reflect the performance at all against Fleetwood, as we both well know, and as I made clear in my post. So to claim a 1-0 home defeat against Flletwood was a poor performance comapred to beating Rovers 1-0 doesn't really stand much scrutiny. The performance against Fleetwood was far superior, and no doubt the match stats would confirm this.

ty cobb
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Re: Going Down??

Post by ty cobb » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:50 pm

No offence taken OY - I hope you're all better now.

I've actually agreed with much of what you've written of late (not very interesting to just post something saying I agree though!) but I do think that although under Pep we had some shocking performances, we also had some quality ones as well - Pboro away was the performance of the season for me, totally dominant against a quality team after we had been on a bad run. Rovers away (where we always struggle) we soaked up pressure, looked tight at the back and got a good goal. Against Fleetwood, much better performance than against Oldham but we barely tested their keeper (shot from Wes aside) whilst Eastwood pulled off a couple of great saves.

Fingers crossed for Sat.

Jimski
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Jimski » Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:29 am

This prediction table still has us staying up. (I first checked it before the Fleetwood game and it had evidently predicted a draw in that, as we now have one fewer point predicted.)

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/leag ... /predicted

I still fear the worst, but then I generally do in this kind of situation.

I just noticed you can see their predicted results - they have us winning our 2 remaining home games (and losing all the away ones).

Myles Francis
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Myles Francis » Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:27 am

Jimski wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:29 am
This prediction table still has us staying up. (I first checked it before the Fleetwood game and it had evidently predicted a draw in that, as we now have one fewer point predicted.)

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/leag ... /predicted

I still fear the worst, but then I generally do in this kind of situation.

I just noticed you can see their predicted results - they have us winning our 2 remaining home games (and losing all the away ones).
They give us a 74.6% chance of beating Southend. Really?! Against a team we've only beaten once at home this decade? And a team that are very much more "in form" than us?

I pray that they are right, but I just don't see it being anywhere near as clear cut as that...

Boogie
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Boogie » Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:51 am

I have a good friend who is a Bradford fan.

They are in freefall.

They need to turn their form around pdq to do us a few favours.

Worryingly that prediction table assumes they will.
Last edited by Boogie on Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Isaac
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Isaac » Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:57 am

Reading all this it feels like we should just wave the white flag and accept relegation now!

I very much doubt the football predictions website takes into account our record against Southend over the previous decade (after all, why should it? Different teams/managers over that time).

Anyway, the bookies have us marginally more likely to win than Southend, but it could go either way. That seems more accurate to me.

I agree generally with those who say we shouldn't have sacked Clotet, on the basis that we have no idea whether he was a good manager or not. Bad luck with injuries (may have been a pattern due to training etc, but too early to say), a few duff signings (which every manager has but too early to spot a trend) and actually a reasonable record, that is getting more reasonable given the results ever since he left.

Irrelevant now of course, but here's hoping we win and put ourselves more or less safe on Saturday. My first home game of the season - seen two 1-1 draws away at southend and gills and the strange tv games (unlucky to lose 3-0 at pompey and very lucky to draw 1-1 with Scunny), so I reckon I'm due a win....

Myles Francis
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Myles Francis » Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:06 am

Isaac wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:57 am
I very much doubt the football predictions website takes into account our record against Southend over the previous decade (after all, why should it? Different teams/managers over that time).

Anyway, the bookies have us marginally more likely to win than Southend, but it could go either way. That seems more accurate to me.
True, but was just making the point that Southend are very much one of our bogey teams, just like Fleetwood.

The bookies also currently have us as favourite to take the fourth relegation spot.

Isaac
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Isaac » Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:13 am

Myles Francis wrote:
Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:06 am
True, but was just making the point that Southend are very much one of our bogey teams, just like Fleetwood.

The bookies also currently have us as favourite to take the fourth relegation spot.
Not on the one I'm looking at, we're 3rd favourites for the last relegation place. Not taking bets on Bury, then Northampton/MKDons more or less gone already according to the odds. Then the last spot between Rochdale (favourites), AFC (next favourites), us and then strangely Oldham.

Myles Francis
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Re: Going Down??

Post by Myles Francis » Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:35 pm

I did get it slightly wrong, as I forgot about Bury...

Nevertheless, SkyBet does have us as second favourites for 21st.
Image

OtmoorYellow
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Re: Going Down??

Post by OtmoorYellow » Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:19 pm

ty cobb wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:50 pm
No offence taken OY - I hope you're all better now.

I've actually agreed with much of what you've written of late (not very interesting to just post something saying I agree though!) but I do think that although under Pep we had some shocking performances, we also had some quality ones as well - Pboro away was the performance of the season for me, totally dominant against a quality team after we had been on a bad run. Rovers away (where we always struggle) we soaked up pressure, looked tight at the back and got a good goal. Against Fleetwood, much better performance than against Oldham but we barely tested their keeper (shot from Wes aside) whilst Eastwood pulled off a couple of great saves.

Fingers crossed for Sat.
Thanks Ty

Equally I don't disagree about performances such as that at Peterborough. But we had 21 shots at goal against Fleetwood and that shows a huge improvement in our play.

OtmoorYellow
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Re: Going Down??

Post by OtmoorYellow » Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:38 pm

Have a try with this predictor table:

https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=3

I have us being safe on 52 points (draw v Sarfend, draw v Donny, win v Dale).

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