SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

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SmileyMan
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SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

Post by SmileyMan »

(updated to 19 Mar, next update 25 Mar)

Here's a run-down of where we stand with 8 games to go, and how the League is shaping up in general.

Comments
Northampton's Fergie-time victory killed off the faint hopes of Mansfield, Cambridge, Luton and Exeter being champions. York's playoff dream is over after they lost and Orient won, who along with Wycombe and Wimbledon can stop worrying about the possibility of relegation should they suffer a nightmare end to the season.

Oxford Opponents remaining

Code: Select all

Stevenage  (H) Fri 25 Mar
Cambridge  (A) Mon 28 Mar
Crawley    (A) Sat  9 Apr
Luton      (H) Sat 16 Apr
Newport    (A) Tue 19 Apr
Hartlepool (H) Sat 23 Apr
Carlisle   (A) Sat 30 Apr
Wycombe    (H) Sat  7 May
For the following tables, GP = games played, GR = games remaining, CP = current points, and PP = possible points. Future opponents are marked with an asterisk.

Possible Champions (PP >= 82)

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    37  9 82 109
Oxford Utd     38  8 71  95
Bristol Rovers 37  9 65  92
Plymouth       37  9 65  92
Accrington     37  9 64  91
Portsmouth     37  9 60  87
Leyton Orient  37  9 59  86
Wycombe        37  9 57  84 *
Wimbledon      37  9 56  83
Carlisle       36 10 53  83 *
Possible Automatic Promotions (PP >= 65, CP <= 95)

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    37  9 82 109
Oxford Utd     38  8 71  95
Bristol Rovers 37  9 65  92
Plymouth       37  9 65  92
Accrington     37  9 64  91
Portsmouth     37  9 60  87
Leyton Orient  37  9 59  86
Wycombe        37  9 57  84 *
Wimbledon      37  9 56  83
Cambridge      37  9 54  81 *
Carlisle       36 10 53  83 *
Luton          37  9 53  80 *
Mansfield      37  9 52  79
Exeter         37  9 52  79
Barnet         37  9 47  74
Crawley        37  9 46  73 *
Newport        37  9 41  68 *
Morecambe      37  9 40  67
Notts County   36 10 40  70
Yeovil         37  9 38  65
Hartlepool     35 11 36  69 *
Possible Playoff Contenders (PP >= 59, CP <= 92)

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    37  9 82 109
Oxford Utd     38  8 71  95
Bristol Rovers 37  9 65  92
Plymouth       37  9 65  92
Accrington     37  9 64  91
Portsmouth     37  9 60  87
Leyton Orient  37  9 59  86
Wycombe        37  9 57  84 *
Wimbledon      37  9 56  83
Cambridge      37  9 54  81 *
Carlisle       36 10 53  83 *
Luton          37  9 53  80 *
Mansfield      37  9 52  79
Exeter         37  9 52  79
Barnet         37  9 47  74
Crawley        37  9 46  73 *
Newport        37  9 41  68 *
Morecambe      37  9 40  67
Notts County   36 10 40  70
Yeovil         37  9 38  65
Hartlepool     35 11 36  69 *
Stevenage      37  9 34  61 *
Possible Relegation (CP <= 54)

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Cambridge      37  9 54  81 *
Carlisle       36 10 53  83 *
Luton          37  9 53  80 *
Mansfield      37  9 52  79
Exeter         37  9 52  79
Barnet         37  9 47  74
Crawley        37  9 46  73 *
Newport        37  9 41  68 *
Morecambe      37  9 40  67
Notts County   36 10 40  70
Yeovil         37  9 38  65
Hartlepool     35 11 36  69 *
Stevenage      37  9 34  61 *
York           37  9 27  54
Dag & Red      38  8 25  49
Last edited by SmileyMan on Mon Mar 21, 2016 12:27 am, edited 7 times in total.
SmileyMan
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Posts: 1637
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:39 am

Re: SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

Post by SmileyMan »

Updated main post on 15 Mar. Previous post:
SmileyMan wrote:(updated to 12 Mar, next update 15 Mar)

Here's a run-down of where we stand with 10 games to go, and how the League is shaping up in general.

Comments
Obviously with ten games to go there is still a lot to play for - 30 potential points (39 for the bloody monkey hangers) could make a huge difference. These lists should shrink quite quickly as reality replaces mathematical possibility!

Oxford Opponents remaining

Code: Select all

Dag & Red  (H) Tue 15 Mar
Barnet     (A) Sat 19 Mar
Stevenage  (H) Fri 25 Mar
Cambridge  (A) Mon 28 Mar
Crawley    (A) Sat  9 Apr
Luton      (H) Sat 16 Apr
Newport    (A) Tue 19 Apr
Hartlepool (H) Sat 23 Apr
Carlisle   (A) Sat 30 Apr
Wycombe    (H) Sat  7 May
For the following tables, GP = games played, GR = games remaining, CP = current points, and PP = possible points. Future opponents are marked with an asterisk.

Possible Champions (PP >= 79)

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    36 10 79 109
Oxford Utd     36 10 65  95
Plymouth       36 10 65  95
Bristol Rovers 36 10 62  92
Accrington     35 11 60  93
Portsmouth     36 10 59  89
Leyton Orient  36 10 56  86
Wycombe        35 11 55  88 *
Wimbledon      36 10 53  83
Carlisle       35 11 52  85 *
Mansfield      36 10 51  81
Cambridge      36 10 51  81 *
Luton          36 10 50  80 *
Exeter         36 10 49  79
Possible Automatic Promotions (PP >= 65, CP <= 95)

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    36 10 79 109
Oxford Utd     36 10 65  95
Plymouth       36 10 65  95
Bristol Rovers 36 10 62  92
Accrington     35 11 60  93
Portsmouth     36 10 59  89
Leyton Orient  36 10 56  86
Wycombe        35 11 55  88 *
Wimbledon      36 10 53  83
Carlisle       35 11 52  85 *
Mansfield      36 10 51  81
Cambridge      36 10 51  81 *
Luton          36 10 50  80 *
Exeter         36 10 49  79
Barnet         36 10 47  77 *
Crawley        36 10 45  75 *
Morecambe      36 10 40  70
Newport        35 11 40  73 *
Notts County   35 11 40  73
Yeovil         36 10 38  68
Hartlepool     33 13 34  73 *
Possible Playoff Contenders (PP >= 56, CP <= 93)

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    36 10 79 109
Oxford Utd     36 10 65  95
Plymouth       36 10 65  95
Bristol Rovers 36 10 62  92
Accrington     35 11 60  93
Portsmouth     36 10 59  89
Leyton Orient  36 10 56  86
Wycombe        35 11 55  88 *
Wimbledon      36 10 53  83
Carlisle       35 11 52  85 *
Mansfield      36 10 51  81
Cambridge      36 10 51  81 *
Luton          36 10 50  80 *
Exeter         36 10 49  79
Barnet         36 10 47  77 *
Crawley        36 10 45  75 *
Morecambe      36 10 40  70
Newport        35 11 40  73 *
Notts County   35 11 40  73
Yeovil         36 10 38  68
Stevenage      36 10 34  64 *
Hartlepool     33 13 34  73 *
York           36 10 27  57
Possible Relegation (CP <= 57)

Code: Select all

Leyton Orient  36 10 56  86
Wycombe        35 11 55  88 *
Wimbledon      36 10 53  83
Carlisle       35 11 52  85 *
Mansfield      36 10 51  81
Cambridge      36 10 51  81 *
Luton          36 10 50  80 *
Exeter         36 10 49  79
Barnet         36 10 47  77 *
Crawley        36 10 45  75 *
Morecambe      36 10 40  70
Newport        35 11 40  73 *
Notts County   35 11 40  73
Yeovil         36 10 38  68
Stevenage      36 10 34  64 *
Hartlepool     33 13 34  73 *
York           36 10 27  57
Dag & Red      36 10 25  55
Old Abingdonian
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Re: SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

Post by Old Abingdonian »

Thank you so much for this... I am something of a statto, so this is great!

Should the D&R games played not now read '37''?

And have you considered in the relegation discussion that you might need fewer than 57 points, because lower-placed clubs have to play each other? Mind you, unless you have some kind of computer programme, I'm not sure how you would work this out!
slappy
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Re: SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

Post by slappy »

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/en ... sults-grid

Shows who is still left to play each other, it looks like Dagenham & Redbridge and York have already played each other twice.
SmileyMan
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Re: SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

Post by SmileyMan »

Old Abingdonian wrote:Thank you so much for this... I am something of a statto, so this is great!

Should the D&R games played not now read '37''?

And have you considered in the relegation discussion that you might need fewer than 57 points, because lower-placed clubs have to play each other? Mind you, unless you have some kind of computer programme, I'm not sure how you would work this out!
When we get down to fewer remaining games I'll take it fully into consideration. In general you only have to consider the clubs who are less than three-points either side of the 'borderline' club, because only a match between those two could materially affect the outcome, and at the moment only Wycombe in 8th are close enough and since they've already played Leyton Orient it doesn't count.

I have tried several times to write a program to work this out properly, but it's harder than it thinks, although 99% of the problem is my tendency to over-engineer the code, which is why I'm not a professional developer :)

You're right about D&R - I'll update them, not that it matters for the poor suckers, they're doomed.
SmileyMan
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Re: SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

Post by SmileyMan »

Full table for 16 Mar:

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    36 10 79 109
Oxford Utd     37  9 68  95
Plymouth       36 10 65  95
Bristol Rovers 36 10 62  92
Accrington     36 10 61  91
Portsmouth     36 10 59  89
Wycombe        36 10 56  86 *
Leyton Orient  36 10 56  86
Wimbledon      36 10 53  83
Carlisle       35 11 52  85 *
Mansfield      36 10 51  81
Cambridge      36 10 51  81 *
Luton          36 10 50  80 *
Exeter         36 10 49  79
Barnet         36 10 47  77 *
Crawley        36 10 45  75 *
Newport        36 10 41  71 *
Morecambe      36 10 40  70
Notts County   35 11 40  73
Yeovil         36 10 38  68
Hartlepool     34 12 35  71 *
Stevenage      36 10 34  64 *
York           36 10 27  57
Dag & Red      37  9 25  52
SmileyMan
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Re: SmileyMan's Run-In Numbers Thread

Post by SmileyMan »

Full table for 19 Mar

Code: Select all

               GP GR CP  PP
Northampton    37  9 82 109
Oxford Utd     38  8 71  95
Bristol Rovers 37  9 65  92
Plymouth       37  9 65  92
Accrington     37  9 64  91
Portsmouth     37  9 60  87
Leyton Orient  37  9 59  86
Wycombe        37  9 57  84 *
Wimbledon      37  9 56  83
Cambridge      37  9 54  81 *
Carlisle       36 10 53  83 *
Luton          37  9 53  80 *
Mansfield      37  9 52  79
Exeter         37  9 52  79
Barnet         37  9 47  74
Crawley        37  9 46  73 *
Newport        37  9 41  68 *
Morecambe      37  9 40  67
Notts County   36 10 40  70
Yeovil         37  9 38  65
Hartlepool     35 11 36  69 *
Stevenage      37  9 34  61 *
York           37  9 27  54
Dag & Red      38  8 25  49
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