Does IL have a clue?

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ty cobb
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Does IL have a clue?

Post by ty cobb »

There seems to be little critiscm of our chairman despite the fiasco happening on the field at the moment. We were a team challanging for automatic promotion, looked a very safe bet for a play off place yet our manager (one of the most successful in our history) decided a team cast adrift at the bottom of the league was a better long term prospect. Despite knowing that Wilder was looking for some security and was likely to leave if he didn't get a new contract he seemingly has no idea who the next manager should be (jetting off to Oz in the middle of the recuitement process), so much so that the bookies have now paid out on Lewis given the amount of time this is taking.

I can't think of another example where a manager left a promotion chasing team to go to a team marooned at the bottom of the league. Wilder derserved a new contract given where we were in the league, he was well on the way to fulfilling his brief, so why not give him one? Fan pressure? Or should that be some keyboard warrior pressure, there was not exactly widespread calls for Wilders head was there? He should have realised that come Christmas the manager would start looking around for another job if we were doing well and he wasn't getting a contract here. Why not give him a two year deal with a break clause that if we didn't get in the play offs both sides could review the position.

And what the hell is going on now? If Lewis is the man for the job say so, if not get someone else in. The uncertainty is having a awful impact on the pitch, our unbeaten record away has been blown away, we're still rubbish at home yet what is he doing about this? Are we now 3/4 of the way through the recuitement process? To do nothing and hope things will get better is not good enough, we risk throwing away our best chance of promotion for years from this poxy league.
Jimski
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Jimski »

I've started to wonder this myself. Allowing Wilder to leave (as opposed to extending his contract) at such a stage of the season is starting to look like a major blunder. Wilder was solid and unspectacular as a manager, but at least he *was* that.

And now we're just drifting slowly out of contention. I predict our third successive 9th place finish unless a change is made soon.
Dr Bob
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Dr Bob »

Just a few thoughts. We are still challenging for an automatic promotion place. How safe a bet we are for a play-off place depends not only on our form, but the likes of Plymouth and York, who have really got going in recent weeks. Meanwhile, none of the other teams in the top 7 are running away with things (last night's results seemed to tighten things up...again)

There was plenty of debate on here before CWs departure about whether he was actually on course to deliver what we are guessing were the T&C of getting a new contract - rather more so than you seem to suggest here.

IL has shown he is not a trigger-happy Chairman. Even if we do not go up this season, if he does make the right appointment that will be better for us in the longer term (because it will be an appointment for the longer term). Oh - and how many here think that if we do go up, unless there are major changes, we shall struggle to stay up and consolidate?

What is it about Division 4 that leads you to call it 'this poxy league'? It is as if our 4 years in the Conference failed to bring any sense of perspective to Oxford fans. Such arrogance really is seriously misplaced.
JoeyBeauchamp
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by JoeyBeauchamp »

I wondered when people might start to realise that Wilder actually was doing pretty well. A lot of people on here were overjoyed when he jumped ship - I wonder if they still are? Having said that, March has thrown up some of the hardest fixtures of the season, so it was always gong to be make or break. Although last night's was surely the easiest of them all and three points, given the way results went, could have gone a long way to cementing a play-off play or even getting back to challenge the top three. I had a sinking feeling as soon as I heard Cureton was coming on.
Jimski
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Jimski »

The way I see it is this:

We had a decent chance of promotion at the time Wilder left. IL must have realised that his contract strategy with Wilder could end with Wilder up and leaving, especially after the Portsmouth interview. IL should then have had a proper plan in place for what happened if/when Wilder left, to the extent of having a shortlist of candidates already drawn up.( When Wilder left, interviews could then have begun almost immediately.) This clearly was not the case. We have unsurprisingly ended up drifting, and our last 5 matches (2 points) could be described as freefall. Our crowd last night was, I believe, the lowest at a home league match since our promotion from the Conference.

I think we're coming close to having thrown any chance of promotion this season. Even if we had needed to do a lot of work to stay up next season, so what? Promotion is fun in its own right, and also a very rare event. It's only happened to Oxford 3 times in the almost 30 years that I've been a supporter. I'd take going up this season, and worry about next season next season.
Kernow Yellow
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Kernow Yellow »

I think the whole Wilder issue is a red herring. He had been at OUFC longer than almost every other club's manager and things had got stale. We could argue all over again about why that was (I suspect there was more to it than just contract length and job security), but it's irrelevant - he's gone. We don't know all the reasons behind it. It can't be undone now anyway. Move on.

What IL can justifiably be criticised for is failing to act to build on the good start to our season. Let's face it, looking at the table we are considerably more likely to finish in the play-offs than anywhere else. That means the potential for a big two-legged semi-final, maybe even another day out at Wembley. And not a non-league one this time. A real play-off. Something we've never done before. Imagine that? Not to be sniffed at is it? And maybe, just maybe even promotion to a level in the football pyramid we haven't reached for the best part of fifteen years.

This is big, exciting stuff. Or it should be. But speaking to OUFC fans, looking at forums, and particularly matchday attendances, you'd be forgiven for thinking our season is petering out into mid-table nothingness. Which it isn't. It might yet do, but it isn't.

Now everyone knows that what you need to mount a successful play-off campaign is momentum. Some decent form. Confidence that you can beat anybody. And it is abundantly clear that Mickey Lewis isn't giving us that. Hence the negativity among fans. Ian Lenagan is the only man that can do anything about this by appointing someone that can motivate our players - players who, lets not forget, had until not long ago scored the most and conceded the fewest goals in the division - to believe again that they are capable of match-winning, play-off-winning, promotion-winning performances. And then motivate them to actually achieve that. Imagine what a great end to the season that would be.

So come on IL, sort it out. This is a great opportunity. Let's not piss it away by looking so far into the future that we can't see the short-term potential at our fingertips. The long term future becomes the most important thing as soon as the season ends. But right now the next ten games promise more excitement and reward than we've seen for years. If we don't even try and take advantage of that I'll be seriously pissed off.

Rant over. See you at Chesterfield.
Matt D
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Matt D »

yes, i think he does have a clue. the decision not to give wilder a contract was about the long-term plan, and, i would guess, about not being happy with the situation that resulted the last time wilder was given a contract when someone else was sniffing around. it was about sticking to your guns. i said before, i think lenagan is good at the long-term stuff.

but what i would like to see lenagan do is provide some certainty to the end of the season: the short term. i really think that the ongoing discussions around the club about the managerial situation are detracting from what is already a tough period of our campaign. we're still in a good position for promotion, none of the top seven seem to be showing any consistency, and the division doesn't look to be getting easier next season. i am fully behind taking the time to get this appointment right, but we can still provide some clarity about the management of the side to the end of the season: whether that's mickey lewis or someone on a fixed, short-term contract.

as KY says, we have a great opportunity this season. it would be a crying shame to feel we'd thrown it away.
Kairdiff Exile
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Kairdiff Exile »

I think Kernow Yellow has hit the nail on the head.

Re: Wilder, I think the consensus amongst most fans was that - for whatever reason, and whatever the history - the time had perhaps come for the two parties to go their separate ways, with no animosity on either side. Time for a change all round. Some - including myself - thought Lewis deserved a go. It clearly isn't paying off - but we're still in March, and a shrewd appointment now (even if on a short-term basis until the end of the season) could galvanise the team.

As KY has already said, not so long ago we were scoring more goals and had a tighter defence than any of our rivals. Add to that the fine home record and you've surely got the basis of a decent side. Someone out there must be able to coax that team into competing for a playoff win at the very least.

I think IL is wiser than many give him credit for. He held off rushing into an appointment - rightly so, in my view - but I think he will take control of the situation now and we will see some sort of change in the management structure within the next week.
Jimski
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Jimski »

I still don't understand in what way it can be deemed that we are currently better off without Wilder. He may not have been brilliant, but he was the one under whom we had scored the most goals and conceded the fewest.
Mooro
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Mooro »

I'm just wondering whether the delay has been to allow Exeter to get safe from relegation before allowing Tisdale to leave - which is taking a damn site longer than was expected, hence we are having to wait. Now getting increasingly awkward as him moving now, will not only put them in a real pickle, but will also lead to recriminations all round in terms of him taking his eye off the ball for them and our role in that....
Myles Francis
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Myles Francis »

To play Devil's Advocate on this:

If IL had given Wilder a contract extension at Christmas time and we then embarked on our almost traditional New Year slump, do you think fans would be supporting that decision, or castigating IL as Wilder was never the man for the job? The brief was to get us promoted this season, not get us into a position at Christmas where we might the go on and win promotion from. The fact that Wilder chose to walk could be seen as a total lack of belief in his own ability to get his team promoted. His approach to many games has demonstrated his pathological fear of failure (rather than his appetite for victory), and jumping when he did removes the possibility of failure. Going to Northampton puts him in a win-win situation - keep them up and he has done well, don't keep them up and it's down to what he's inherited.

With regards to Lewis, two wins and three draws from his first five games suggested that he had "earned the right" to keep the status quo. It's only the last three games where the wheels could be said to have come off. That initial run probably gave IL some faith that Lewis could carry on in the same vein whilst the search for a new manager was carried out - with slightly less of the time pressure. As it happens, maybe that has worked out - only time will tell - but there was also no guarantee that a new manager would have done any better.

As others have mentioned, IL does tend to look at the long term picture and, I believe, this is one reason the process is taking some time - it's not simply a case of seeing who applies and picking the best. It also involves looking at who is currently under contract who may be interested and when those individuals may become available, i.e. pay compensation now or wait until end of season.

Whatever the position, I don't think IL will be rushed into any sort of decision because his timescale doesn't seem rapid enough to others. That said, if we continue to drop points as we have in the last few games, he may well look to someone available now, e.g. Keen, rather than wait for someone else, e.g. Tisdale.
Kernow Yellow
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Kernow Yellow »

Myles Francis wrote:Whatever the position, I don't think IL will be rushed into any sort of decision because his timescale doesn't seem rapid enough to others. That said, if we continue to drop points as we have in the last few games, he may well look to someone available now, e.g. Keen, rather than wait for someone else, e.g. Tisdale.
The problem is that we cannot afford to continue to drop points before making a decision. We had a big gap to 8th place a few weeks ago. Some people were stupid enough to think that we were pretty much guaranteed a play-off place - Lenagan even said it out loud on the radio for God's sake. That's pretty much when I stopped being reassured that he was on top of things and it would all be ok if we trusted in him. The gap is now 5 points but Plymouth have a game in hand. With ten games left. And I'm fed up of hearing how it's all ok because all the rest of the top seven are rubbish too - it's the teams in 8th and below that pose a danger to us, and they're putting some nice form together.

Lenagan's timescale might be all very well for his long-term vision, but he's getting good at selling us jam tomorrow. Remember the five year plan to be in the Championship? I'm fed up of all the good things being in future seasons. This season has been a great chance to actually make a step on that journey.

I'll say it again - Mickey Lewis is not going to win us promotion this season. It's so obvious. His only wins have come against mid-table teams with nothing to play for - we don't get to play them in the play-offs, sadly. We have 11 points from his ten games and have won none of our last five. We're going nowhere. If Lenagan doesn't put someone else in charge quickly he's basically accepting another year of League 2 football. And given the position we were in when CW left, that's not nearly good enough for me. Nor will it be for many fans I think.
SmileyMan
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by SmileyMan »

I think IL's done OK - the considered approach to appointing a manager worked well last time and will work well this time. If Mad Dog's first few games had been disastrous then there would have been more pressure to make a snap judgement, but presumably we're now so close to the finish line that even the last few games aren't going to rush him.

I'd really like to see a new boss in place before Chesterfield. I'll be annoyed if we don't have one before Hartlepool.
ty cobb
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by ty cobb »

I'm sorry but why do people think IL is good at long term thinking? He has owned us for a long time now and we are in the same league we were in when he took over and still miles away from owning the stadium, how long do people want to give him before making a judgement.

Wilders job this season was to get us in the play offs, this was going to happen with a good chance of automatic promotion. Not keeping him is so far proving a massive mistake. If we stay as we are do people really think we're play off material? The whole situation has been very poorly managed and raises questions about the effectiveness of our current board. We lose lots of money every year. We don't own the stadium. We lost our over achieving manager to the bottom team. We have waited so long to appoint a manager the bookies have paid out on ML. What needs to happen for people to question IL?

And yes I'm afraid I think this is a poxy league and I would suggest a couple of thousand fans agree with me given our crowds this season.
Dr Bob
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Re: Does IL have a clue?

Post by Dr Bob »

We don't own the stadium. We would have done had IL been prepared to massively overpay. Have people forgotten all those discussions about FK sticking to a ridiculous asking price? To me, refusal to be ripped off by FK is indeed long-term thinking. Being saddled with so much debt would hamstring the club for a very long time.

We continue to lose money - yet until recently the low gates were being attributed on this forum to CWs dull style of play (which, as others have said, was more about not losing than trying to win - not that that actually worked at home this season). And as for non-ownership of the stadium and its role in this - see above.

Ty describes CW as an over-achieving manager, yet even on this thread alone there are criticisms about CWs style of play, our failure to get promoted from this so-called poxy league under his management, his general negativity...how exactly is this over-achieving? CW also made it quite clear why he went to Northampton - and views on this thread have commented on what that shows about CW.

And has anybody looked at The Championship since we were last there? Premiers*** parachute payments have totally transformed that league. I cannot imagine us doing much more than Yeovil are managing this season. And one look at the clubs now in Division 3 show how tough that league is now as well. For my money, we are a decent Division 4 side who might, just might, get to mid-table in Division 3 with a fair wind. I would love to see us go higher - but I fear that THAT would be "over-achieving".
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