Managerial Merry-go-round

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Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:09 am

In the next of the current series of strange managerial decisions, Sean O'Driscoll has been sacked by Forest on the back of a 4-2 win over Leeds, which leaves them sitting well-placed for the second half of the Championship season!

Personally I cannot fathom how any director can have chosen to make the decision in advance to sack someone on Boxing Day. I know he's only been at the club five minutes, but even so....

OUFC4eva
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by OUFC4eva » Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:52 am

The reason for the sacking is the availability of Roberto Di Matteo (apparently)

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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by A-Ro » Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:03 am

Henning Berg is sacked from Blackburn Rovers.

http&#58//www&#46goal&#46com/en-india/n ... eakingnews

Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:13 pm

&quotOUFC4eva&quot wrote:The reason for the sacking is the availability of Roberto Di Matteo (apparently)
THAT would perhaps have just about been sort of understandable (if not acceptable) were it have come to fruition, however under no stretch of the imagination is the opportunity to appoint Alex McLeish reason enough to sack someone who has your club just one point off the playoffs....!
And still they come.....10 games into his career as a manager in the English League, Henning Berg has been sacked by Venkys at Blackburn. May not have had the most auspicious start, but 10 games is just crazy isnt it? Seems another serial underachiever - Mark hughes - is odds on to return.

Perhaps the phrase &quotbe careful what you wish for&quot is appropriate

Dr Bob
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Dr Bob » Fri Dec 28, 2012 12:24 pm

&quotMooro&quot wrote:
&quotOUFC4eva&quot wrote:The reason for the sacking is the availability of Roberto Di Matteo (apparently)
THAT would perhaps have just about been sort of understandable (if not acceptable) were it have come to fruition, however under no stretch of the imagination is the opportunity to appoint Alex McLeish reason enough to sack someone who has your club just one point off the playoffs....!
And still they come.....10 games into his career as a manager in the English League, Henning Berg has been sacked by Venkys at Blackburn. May not have had the most auspicious start, but 10 games is just crazy isnt it? Seems another serial underachiever - Mark hughes - is odds on to return.

Perhaps the phrase &quotbe careful what you wish for&quot is appropriate
Exactly the phrase I used myself, when looking at the treatment of Steve Kean and his departure when Rovers were third in the table.

Here in the East Midlands, there are a few voices who are pointing to McLeish's success getting Birmingham promoted, beating Arsenal in the League Cup and being able to build a solid defence - but the VAST majority are dumbfounded by O'Driscoll's sacking, let alone McLeish's appointment as his replacement. Some have pointed to inconsistency in results, but others have countered by pointing out various (dodgy, of course) sendings-off, the improvement in the squad, the improvement in the league position, etc under O'Driscoll. The Nottingham Post ran a poll to see the fans' choice for manager. Out of 1200 votes, 1% were for McLeish. Within five minutes of his appointment, the main footie correspondent on The Post received about 200 tweets, of which 4 were supportive of the appointment. It may not ultimately matter, but there is a strong sense of Forest's new owners blowing the goodwill they had built up with the fans, since taking over a few months ago.

But surely the main story here is the obscene new TV deal for the Premier League? It is 71% larger than the current one. As a result, failure to get promoted this year not only means missing out on riches unimaginable in the Championship - with (presumably) commensurately larger parachute payments from the end of next season, it will thus be progressively harder for the teams left behind to compete in the Championship with those who have feasted at the Premier league trough. No wonder club owners have taken leave of their senses as their eyes glaze over at the thought of what promotion means, this year more than ever before.

Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:39 pm

Slightly lower key than other previous decisions, Mark Robson has left Barnet. Appointed in the summer as the new boss, he was joined at the helm by Edgar Davids in October, who now assumes sole responsibility for running the team...

Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:06 am

Another day another gonner...although at least this one makes sense....

....Barnsley sack Keith Hill as defeat to managerless Blackburn leaves them rock bottom in the Championship....

Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:05 am

Four managers gone in 4 days, will be interesting to track where Forest, Rovers, Chelsea &amp Fleetwood finish compared to where they were when they sacked their managers....I bet more than one will be worse off....

Dr Bob
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Dr Bob » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:36 am

Just done a quick trawl of some of the academic literature on this. Whilst every case is unique, certain patterns emerge across studies, regardless of the countries studied (each study, naturally, looks at multiple instances of managerial replacement). First, the most common reason for replacing the manager is, indeed, fear of relegation. If there is an improvement in performance, it tends to come in home matches. But since there is a whole other literature that demonstrates the home performance effect and crowd support, there is perhaps a crowd effect here as much as a manager effect (the crowd having been appeased by the change of manager get behind their team more, perchance??).

Other studies which do not distinguish between home and away performances, find some evidence of a short term improvement in performance, before that drops off (others, however, do not even find a temporary pick-up). The problem here is that the underlying weaknesses in the club remain and, after a brief honeymoon period, they begin to dominate once again. A different study finds evidence that if a club is to improve performance, it should change manager between seasons, not during it - but since a major motivation is fear of relegation, that will dominate any rational long term thinking amongst club owners, I guess.

There were studies also showing that player turnover was greater when the manager was changed mid-season. What I could not be bothered to spend more time looking for, however, was any study that looked at the impact of player churn on performance. A priori, it might be that a manager undermines any chance of success by unsettling the squad with new arrivals. How often do we hear, even when players have been brought in during the close season, that it takes time for them to gel as a group - so how much more disruptive would it be if this happens to a squad during the season?

Bottom line - some of these clubs are complete shambles right now (Blackburn), or weak as a result of limited resources (Barnsley), and it will take more than a simple change of manager to address those issues. I suspect by the end of the season, Mooro will have been proved correct.

Joey's Toe
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Joey's Toe » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:58 am

Yeah, but you can prove anything with facts, can't you...

Dr Bob
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Dr Bob » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:26 pm

&quotJoey's Toe&quot wrote:Yeah, but you can prove anything with facts, can't you...
Proof? Facts? Methodologically rather unsound, methinks.

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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Joey's Toe » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:00 pm

Just my little joke. Probably should have flagged it up as such, really.

Thanks for the review of the literature - interesting reading, and a useful counterpoint to all the &quotchange everything as soon as we have so much as a bad 20-minute spell in a game&quot idiots who seem to dominate 606 every weekend.

Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:43 pm

#5 in the list of Festive Firings:

Carl Fletcher goes after 18 months at Plymouth...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20883861

Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Sun Jan 06, 2013 9:10 pm

#6 of the festive firings comes in the form of Stale Solbakken at Wolves, paying the price for losing in the FA Cup to Luton....fair enough! Incidentally, he is the 5th manager who started since the end of last season to have already been fired.

Meanwhile, John Sheriden has returned to the fold by taking the Plymouth job, Doncaster manager Dean Saunders has been officially approached by Wolves, while Sean O'Driscoll has turned down the chance to manage Craig Davies at Barnsley...

Mooro
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Re: Managerial Merry-go-round

Post by Mooro » Sun Jan 06, 2013 11:47 pm

and before we know it Deano has agreed a move to Wolves, leaving Doncaster in search of the next man - could Sean O'Driscoll return?

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