Beano Transfer Saga II?

[Ancient Colin]

So we are in a market with heterogenous products (players are not identical or perfect substitutes) and asymmetric information (the seller knows more about the player than the buyer - about their crack habit, their gambling debts, their ability to wind up the squad in training, that worrying persistent injury ... or positive things too). Under those circumstances, buyer and seller set a reserve (reservation) price and, typically, the reserve price of the buyer is lower than the reserve price of the seller - because of the information asymmetry. How does trading take place? Because the reserve prices of multiple sellers vary (so any one individual buyer may - for rational or irrational reasons - have a reserve price that is higher than other buyers). But ultimately if all buyer reserve prices are below the seller's reserve price there is no transaction. What sets the typical reserve price? Other transactions ... of similar (but not identical) products. Those transactions clearly are affected by the supply of products and the demand for those products.

So, let's take the Smiley Coffee Emporium example (without the scrap metal dealer). The dealer's offer (if it is a genuine offer) reflects his knowledge of the sale of similar (but not identical) products and, hence, his ability to make a normal profit from the transaction. That Smiley refuses the offer reflects uncertainty as to the value of the replacement (how reliable will it be, for example) and uncertainty about the results (if the air of class is lost, does that affect sales and hence expected profit, which must be included in the decision) and the costs and disruption of the replacement itself. But even Smiley will still have a reservation price, surely? If the Dealer were to come in and offer £1,200? Now Smiley could buy two coffee machines and still retain some of the proceeds - or a sophisticated music system that will add a new air of class and boost sales. However, the Dealer isn't likely to do that because he is aware of the sale price of similar (but not identical) coffee machines and this sets a reserve price. He won't make money by offering more than £600.

Now, if Smiley comes to realise that the antique coffee machine is increasingly unreliable, often fails to deliver good cups of coffee and is apt to spray grounds on the other products in the Emporium reducing their value, and the dealer returns with his offer, what then?

[SmileyMan]

Now, if Smiley comes to realise that the antique coffee machine is increasingly unreliable, often fails to deliver good cups of coffee and is apt to spray grounds on the other products in the Emporium reducing their value, and the dealer returns with his offer, what then?

[GodalmingYellow]

Not true. Your argument rests on the bizarre notion that a buyer will pay more than they value an item, an argument which has no logic at all. The amount a buyer will pay for something is the same as the amount that they value the item. Whilst a seller can't sell if a buyer doesn't agree the seller's valuation, neither can a buyer buy if a seller doesn't agree with the buyer's valuation. Ergo, it is not the buyer's decision alone as to valuation. Ergo the age old adage that something is worth only what a buyer will pay is bollocks. It is worth what a buyer and seller agree it is worth. If you came to Godalming as a buyer to buy a 4 bedroom detached house for £500k, you would simply not be able to do so, even though that was all you were willing to pay. Your valuation as a buyer has no impact on your ability to buy. Therefore you change your valuation, or you leave empty handed.

It's certainly not a bizarre notion that a buyer will pay more than they value an item. For &quotemotional&quot purchases such as houses, buyers frequently do precisely that - especially if they are in competition with somebody else. Yes, it may be argued that they DO value the item that highly because they are prepared to pay that price, but they are aware that they are paying more than it it really &quotworth&quot. And I'm sure most (if not all) of us can think of occasions when we know we've paid over the odds for something.

To continue the housing analogy, if nobody was prepared to pay more than £500k for the detached house in Godalming, the seller would have to make a decision on either dropping their price or not selling at all. So, as a one-on-one scenario, the buyer may not have any impact on the seller's asking price but the market overall can have that impact.

It matters not whether someone else offers to pay £500k for Beano. He is worth that much to OUFC and to prevent him getting into an opposition side and because of the cost and risk associated with buying a replacement.

What you're coming up with here is not an objective valuation of the player. It's more a hugely inflated figure based on the notion that Beano is so important to OUFC that he should not be sold, and ignoring what he's actually &quotworth&quot in the market. It's like putting a £1m valuation on a two bed terraced house in Godalming arguing that the property must be worth that because of the risk that anywhere you move to will not feel quite as homely!

To say a Division 4 player is worth £500k is frankly ludicrous - even Crawley wouldn't pay that sort of money. You may as well say he's worth £10million because nobody would pay that sort of price.

If a buyer offers to pay an increased amount for something, then they are de facto valuing it at that higher price than they had previously offered. Valuation isn't just about pure theoretical market conditions.

The other comparisons you have made bear no resemlance to any form of reality, or argument that I have made, but I'm going to say no more because I know this will turn into a very silly long winded argument. If you want to put your own spin on, or just want to believe something different to me, or get into a discussion about it, you feel free.

[ty cobb]

Getting back to footballing reasons for why we shouldn't sell Beano, he is quite simply one of the best finshers in and around the penalty box we have seen for years, if he gets a chance 90% of the time get a shot on target and scores more than he misses.

However, we just don't create enough chances for him. Midson looked like a decent player here but we created very few chances for him so he didn't score. Not scoring lots of goals should mean he's a bad player, if he misses a lot of chances then we could argue that but fact is we just don't create many for him.

We are a defensivly minded team playing one up top - the two either side of the front man spend more time tracking back and defending than they do attacking. Midson has gone to a more attacking team and got a lot more goals.

Therefore comparing him to other players in the division is unfair, compare him to the other strikers in the team, he scored more (or very close to) goals then all the other strikers combined. Had we played with more attacking intent, not dropped him for a number of games and not distracted his game and ruined his confidence by trying to flog him off to other teams then he would have got over 20 goals without a problem.

£500k is on the high side but as a player under contract who wants to stay and is probably our best player and fans hero, it should take a stupid bid to part with him. He's in his prime at the moment and letting him go for anything under £500k will make it very hard to get a replacement in - just look at the strikers we got last season to see how that might go (Hall excepted but he's too good for us and won't be coming).

[Mooro]

Of course, Slappys coffee shop does not only have one coffee machine. It has a number of others, although while these are not as popular as the antique, the shop owner does use these to serve coffee to people at times and it has been noted that earlier in the year when a couple of these were broken, he also borrowed a snazzy new model from Big Sam’s high street coffee house, which turned a few heads among his clientele that there might be better coffee available out there if the right machine is used.
Likewise the most likely suitors for the classic machine are not antique or scrap dealers but other local coffee shop owners, which brings an extra layer to the shop owners decision process: He may or may not be that convinced over the incremental value of using a classic machine to produce his coffee, but he is aware that another shop may be more disposed in that direction, so may (or should) be more reluctant to let the classic machine go lightly if the other shop will gain more benefit from it than he loses.
He is also under instruction from head office that he should not be leasing machines, but should actually buy the required amount in order to let them establish themselves as options for his customers to use and potentially develop new variations of beverage available based upon their unique qualities...

So, in the light of the above developments, Mr Slappy has to decide whether he should i) play to his loyal customer base and refocus attention on his classic coffee machine and buy one or more other machines to provide ingredients just the way the machine likes to use them ii) keep the machine in a corner to just to keep some local customers happy but invest in other machines for use on a day to day basis, in the hope of driving new results, iii) sell the machine to another coffee shop and invest the money into new (and hopefully) better alternatives, but risk losing market position to the other shop if your new machines don’t function properly (as many of the ones you’ve tried so far haven’t) and/or the classic machine helps improve their market share....or iv) sell the machine to Big Sams coffee house, then get him to sell it to that dodgy coffee shop down the road from yours, safe in the knowledge that the machine will not function properly without the room conditions and ingredients that only your shop can offer, before buying it back from Paulo di Cappacinos a few months later for a fraction of what he payed Big Sam for it, then hold a Classic coming home relaunch for your coffee shop, while investing the profits from the whole episode back into the shop to keep it going for years to come??

[slappy]

What has this coffee shop got to do with me?

Anyway, there are only a limited number of capable strikers who are either L2 level, or are willing to drop down from L1, where the wages are quite a bit higher.
I'm still surprised Brodie hasn't signed for a league club. (Must be Crawley still paying his wages to be in Fleetwood reserves).

[Isaac]

As much as I'm enjoying the flogging of this particular analogy, it doesn't really work does it, as the coffee machine doesn't have feelings or an opinion like Constable does. We've already agreed a price with Slumdon, but he didn't want to go, it's not a simple buyer/seller agreement.

[GodalmingYellow]

What has this coffee shop got to do with me?

Anyway, there are only a limited number of capable strikers who are either L2 level, or are willing to drop down from L1, where the wages are quite a bit higher.
I'm still surprised Brodie hasn't signed for a league club. (Must be Crawley still paying his wages to be in Fleetwood reserves).

I think you've gone into competition with Smiley's Coffee Shop, and the result appears to be a surfeit of broken coffee machines.

[joepoolman]

&quotTo say a Division 4 player is worth £500k is frankly ludicrous - even Crawley wouldn't pay that sort of money. You may as well say he's worth £10million because nobody would pay that sort of price.&quot

Well it's obviously not a ludicrous thing to say seeing as a non-leage player got sold for £1m:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18109906

[Kernow Yellow]

I think you've gone into competition with Smiley's Coffee Shop, and the result appears to be a surfeit of broken coffee machines.

Maybe these coffee shop owners should pay more attention to their existing machines, carrying out regular maintenance etc, instead of being so quick to notice other, newer versions which look impressive in the brochure but might not produce such nice-tasting coffee. One of them seems to have several models which are regularly out of action...

[GodalmingYellow]

I think you've gone into competition with Smiley's Coffee Shop, and the result appears to be a surfeit of broken coffee machines.

Maybe these coffee shop owners should pay more attention to their existing machines, carrying out regular maintenance etc, instead of being so quick to notice other, newer versions which look impressive in the brochure but might not produce such nice-tasting coffee. One of them seems to have several models which are regularly out of action...

One of them seems to keep changing his mind on the type of bean(o)s being used, then selling tea instead of coffee, and hoping no one will notice. The customers are shouting wake up and smell the coffee, except for one or two who don't seem to be able to taste the difference.

[Myles Francis]

If a buyer offers to pay an increased amount for something, then they are de facto valuing it at that higher price than they had previously offered. Valuation isn't just about pure theoretical market conditions.

Yep, and I acknowledged that point in my post.

The other comparisons you have made bear no resemlance to any form of reality, or argument that I have made, but I'm going to say no more because I know this will turn into a very silly long winded argument. If you want to put your own spin on, or just want to believe something different to me, or get into a discussion about it, you feel free.

Well, pardon me. I thought I was making a reasonable counter-argument, but obviously it was just &quotspin&quot. However much Beano is worth, one thing's for sure: you are priceless!

[Myles Francis]

&quotTo say a Division 4 player is worth £500k is frankly ludicrous - even Crawley wouldn't pay that sort of money. You may as well say he's worth £10million because nobody would pay that sort of price.&quot

Well it's obviously not a ludicrous thing to say seeing as a non-leage player got sold for £1m:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18109906

Fair comment. I would say though that where there is an &quotundisclosed fee&quot said to be &quotat least £x&quot, it often turns out to be nothing like that amount.

[Radley Rambler]

&quotTo say a Division 4 player is worth £500k is frankly ludicrous - even Crawley wouldn't pay that sort of money. You may as well say he's worth £10million because nobody would pay that sort of price.&quot

Well it's obviously not a ludicrous thing to say seeing as a non-leage player got sold for £1m:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18109906

Fair comment. I would say though that where there is an &quotundisclosed fee&quot said to be &quotat least £x&quot, it often turns out to be nothing like that amount.

Very fair comment and to add to it, Tubbs and Barnett both went for sums over £500k last year as League 2 strikers. Le Fondre also went for a serious amount of wedge. Not that I would value Beano at anything like those amounts though.

[GodalmingYellow]

If a buyer offers to pay an increased amount for something, then they are de facto valuing it at that higher price than they had previously offered. Valuation isn't just about pure theoretical market conditions.

Yep, and I acknowledged that point in my post.

The other comparisons you have made bear no resemlance to any form of reality, or argument that I have made, but I'm going to say no more because I know this will turn into a very silly long winded argument. If you want to put your own spin on, or just want to believe something different to me, or get into a discussion about it, you feel free.

Well, pardon me. I thought I was making a reasonable counter-argument, but obviously it was just &quotspin&quot. However much Beano is worth, one thing's for sure: you are priceless!

Oh please!

I just wanted to avoid a long winded pedantic argument. I could see no merit in what you said, and no doubt you think similar to my post. There was no intention of disrespect.

Let's not get tetchy over petty issues.