The 2011 Squeaky Bum Time thread

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SmileyMan
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The 2011 Squeaky Bum Time thread

Post by SmileyMan »

OK, ten games to go. Make your predictions......

Stevenage (h)
Crewe (h)
Burton (h)
Bury(a)
Wycombe (h)
Stanley (a)
Chesterfield (h)
Barnet (a)
Lincoln (h)
Shrews (a)
SmileyMan
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Re: The 2011 Squeaky Bum Time thread

Post by SmileyMan »

Stevenage (h)
Crewe (h)

If we want to be serious contenders, then these are two must-win home games. If we don't get six points against our near rivals, then the rest of the season is a write-off, so for the sake of argument I'm going to say we win both games. (total 6)

Burton (h)

Coming all thay way on a Sunday before work, to see your team get spanked by one at the other end of the table? No fans will fancy that, and the dispirited team will be a 3-point notch on the bedpost in time for roast dinner. (total 9)

Bury(a)

There's a good chance that they may have their season sorted by then, however there's also the chance that they really need a win from this fixture. Best bet is to play for the snore draw. (total 10)

Wycombe (h)

They've got Stockport, Morcambe and Hereford plus the Shrews before this match, so they'll be a long way into guaranteeing that promotion place. Maybe a good opportunity to nab a home win, so I'm feeling optimistic. (total 13)

Stanley (a)

The sort of game that we should win, but probably won't as the pressure builds, and our defence is still leakier than a rice paper colander. I can see us losing this one, i'm afraid. (total 13)

Chesterfield (h)

They'll have won the league by then. Unfortunately, no reason for them to rest players, but perhaps they won't have the heart for it, especially if we're still in the mix. Let's call it a draw. (total 14)

Barnet (a)

Surely a win? (total 17)

Lincoln (h)

With the best of luck, they'll be safe in mid-table. With the worst sort of luck (ie Oxford's) they'll have gone on a run and be a playoff contender. Home advantage should help, but in true Oxford style, this one has nerve-jangling draw all over it. (total 18)

Shrews (a)

Bah, away for the last game of the season. If I'm right above, then we'll be on 68 points - historically not enough for a playoff spot in this league, but 71 points might just sneak us into the last spot. Trouble is, the Shrews will probably be in the same situation. Still, gotta believe in the team, so I'm going for the win here. (total 21)

Ideal situation: losing playoff finalists (loads of money, but not having to get crushed like D&ampR next season)
Paul Cooper
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Post by Paul Cooper »

Where is all of this D&ampR stuff coming from?

They are if I am right, out of the bottom 4 and with games in hand.

In addition, Exeter have showed what can be done with a team who go up from the Conference in the play offs and then through into League 1.

So whilst League one will clearly be a league up (in quality) , I would love to go up this season and wouldn't be as dismissive of our chances of staying up as some on here (changes would clearly be made to the squad).
Yankee Clipper
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Post by Yankee Clipper »

5 wins 3 draws 2 losses 18 pts 9th place 68pts
JoeyBeauchamp
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Post by JoeyBeauchamp »

Heart:

Wins: Stevenage, Crewe, Burton, Wycombe, Accrington, Barnet, Lincoln
Draws: Bury
Defeats: Chesterfield, Shrewsbury

Points: 22 - play-offs

Head:

Wins: Crewe, Barnet, Lincoln
Draws: Stevenage, Burton, Wycombe
Defeats: Bury, Accrington, Chesterfield, Shrewsbury

Points: 12 - mid-table.

I'd have happily taken either finish at the start of the season, or even midway through ther season. Offered either of those on the way to Chesterfield I've have snapped your arm off.
bspittles
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Re: The 2011 Squeaky Bum Time thread

Post by bspittles »

&quotSmileyMan&quot wrote:OK, ten games to go. Make your predictions......

Stevenage (h) - win
Crewe (h) - draw
Burton (h) - win
Bury(a) - draw
Wycombe (h) - lose
Stanley (a) - win
Chesterfield (h) - lose
Barnet (a) - win
Lincoln (h) - win
Shrews (a)
That's 17 going into the final day. Not sure there will be much left to play for, other than mathematical possibilities...
SmileyMan
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Post by SmileyMan »

For reference, for the last decade the last playoff spot has gone to:

2010: 72pts
2009: 69pts
2008: 78pts
2007: 71pts
2006: 66pts
2005: 72pts
2004: 74pts
2003: 70pts
2002: 71pts
2001: 72pts

So 71-72 points looks to be the target.
John Byrne's Underpants
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Re:

Post by John Byrne's Underpants »

&quotYankee Clipper&quot wrote:5 wins 3 draws 2 losses 18 pts 9th place 68pts
Knowing our ability to lose when we're expected to win and win when we're expected to lose, for me it would be hard to predict each individual result right now, however this would seem like a reasonable assessment to me. If we could find another 2-3 points from somewhere (sneak another win perhaps), then there's an outside chance of the playoffs maybe.

Agree with JoeyBeachamp. After where we were in the third week of November last year...
x586
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Post by x586 »

2007: 71pts ...
2006: 66pts ... 49
2005: 72pts ... 59
2004: 74pts ... 71
2003: 70pts ... 69
2002: 71pts ... 47
2001: 72pts ...

Looking at SmileyMan's table, and wondering idly about this myself over the weekend, I was wondering whether this season could prove to be our most successful season (in terms of points gained) since going down to League 2 in 2001 (not counting the Conference). Looks as if it might be. Oxford's final point totals on the right.
bspittles
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Post by bspittles »

Looking at previous years' play-off contenders, and the lowest points after 37 games...

2009 Morecambe 52
2008 Shrewsbury 57
2007 Rochdale 59
2006 Bristol R 52
2005 Lincoln 53
2004 Lincoln/Northampton 56

So at 50 points, we're going to have to put our foot down a bt... but I haven't given up yet!
Snake
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Post by Snake »

We're going to finish in 7th place.

Believe.
Hog
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Post by Hog »

Not sure why it's squeaky bum time? We may squeeze into the play-offs, we may not. Strangely, I'm not too worried!
SmileyMan
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Re:

Post by SmileyMan »

&quotHog&quot wrote:Not sure why it's squeaky bum time? We may squeeze into the play-offs, we may not. Strangely, I'm not too worried!
Well, it's sort of become the name for the fag end of the season, no matter what your position.
tomoufc
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Re:

Post by tomoufc »

&quotSmileyMan&quot wrote:
&quotHog&quot wrote:Not sure why it's squeaky bum time? We may squeeze into the play-offs, we may not. Strangely, I'm not too worried!
Well, it's sort of become the name for the fag end of the season, no matter what your position.
This showed us sneaking into the play-offs. Not sure how objective I was being though - Wycombe seemed to lose their nerves!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/footbal ... efault.stm
&quotI've been a slave to football. It follows you home, it follows you everywhere, and eats into your family life. But every working man misses out on some things because of his job. &quot
slappy
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Post by slappy »

I had thought the teams in the play-off places would just move on and create clear space between them and us. But they didn't. L2 has many inconsistent teams as well as us, and at the top too.
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