The problem with the AFC Oxford option

[Pe├▒a Oxford United]

There are a few, actually, but can I put it to the forum that there is already a non-league club of reasonable standard in
Oxford? And therefore the collapse of the professional side would not leave the area without a football club - at least not one that would be more insignificant, any further down the pyramid, than any new one that United fans might start from scratch? And therefore there won't be any of the same desire or obligation to get behind the cause of We Need A Football Club In The Borough that there has been in some other cases?

[boris]

I think that's true to an extent, and I certainly think that if OUFC were to die then a fair number of Oxford-based supporters would be likely to start watching City.

However, United currently represent the whole county of Oxfordshire, and more than that, they have a supporter base that is quite loyal to the idea of United, and it clearly is a different entity to City. You could equally argue that disaffected Manchester United supporters would have felt no obligation to start FCUM because of the existence of Man City, or Stockport, or Altrincham, or Droylsden, etc. A club, especially one with a bit of history, is more than just a geo-spatial entity that can be replaced by another club occupying the same physical space.

I certainly think that there are enough reasons why AFC Oxford wouldn't work currently, but I'm not sure I totally agree that the existence of City would prevent it from succeeding, all else being in place.

[Pe├▒a Oxford United]

What I mean is that it's not just a question of what the fans of this club would do or think: it's what the wider Oxford and Oxfordshire public would feel. What would AFC Oxford actually promise that didn't exist already?

[GodalmingYellow]

What I mean is that it's not just a question of what the fans of this club would do or think: it's what the wider Oxford and Oxfordshire public would feel. What would AFC Oxford actually promise that didn't exist already?

I'm sure you of all people would understand that AFC Oxford would represent a remaining attachment to OUFC. A hardcore of OUFC supporters would undoubtedly attach themselves to AFCO, and probably represent a noticeably larger followng than OC get. the pack or herd instinct of football supporters doesn't disappear lightly, which is why they remain so loyal.

[Mooro]

What, even in the Oxon Senior League (which I think is the highest level at which any new club SHOULD start (Step 7)) against OUP &amp Rover Cowley?

THere is an unofficial policy by which clubs emerging from the ashes of folded ones can reappear two steps down the pyramid (ie Southern Premier) but that is by no means a definate, particularly given the level of competition for places at Steps 3&amp4 at the moment (eg. it is not a given that the Hellenic champions will be promoted to the Southern League Div1s as there are only eight slots in across the Southern/Ryman leagues at Step4 to be filled from 10 southern based Step 5 leagues.
In other words, AFCO could easily find themselves starting below a good couple of dozen other 'local' clubs at Hellenic prem &amp Southern League level (inlcuding Oxford City Reserves aka City Nomads) so I question whether the pack mentality would stretch as far as actually watching/funding the new club (as opposed to looking up their results in the OxMail on a Monday).

Of course, if the new club was named Raging Fever rather than AFC Oxford then.........??

[Werthers Original]

Come on lads, I don't think it'll come to that, we're just rubbish and broke. Last season Cambridge fans were looking at derbies with Cambridge City but they're doing OK this year.

Talking of rubbish did anyone watch the Stoke v Newcastle game onSunday? Appallingly physical hoofball of hardly a higher standard than our games. Not surprised Sam got the push at all. Anyway I'm sure Newcastle fans were as gloomy after that as we are

[Kernow Yellow]

What, even in the Oxon Senior League (which I think is the highest level at which any new club SHOULD start (Step 7)) against OUP &amp Rover Cowley?

It would depend. If we stayed at that level, then of course interest would be lost pretty quickly. We would need to do an AFC Wimbledon, and walk the first 3 or 4 divisions, to keep the supporters interested.

Although an interesting talking point, I hope people aren't getting too excited by a fans-owned AFC Oxford concept. By far our best chance of regaining league status and watching football in an atmosphere even remotely ressembling that which we are used to is to rescue something from the present club set-up. However unlikely that seems with the current on-field/off-field situations.

[Jimski]

Such clubs tend to start at step 4 or5, don't they?

I think AFC Oxford would be seen as a continuation of Oxford United. Thus any current OUFC supporters who wanted to support an Oxford club at a step 4/5 level would be far more likely to choose AFC Oxford than Oxford City. I'm not sure the existence of Oxford City, Oxford Quarry Nomads, Headington Amateurs or any club would really have much impact, to be honest. I'd be surprised if City's crowds rose at all in such a situation, except when they played AFC Oxford, who would likely have very large crowds for their level. I suspect it would actually be very enjoyable supporting AFC Oxford.

I think the wider public is unlikely to care that much about either AFC Oxford (while at a low level) or City. They will probably just continue to support Man Utd, Chelsea or Liverpool. (A wry joke that last sentence btw.

[Pe├▒a Oxford United]

It's not just a question of who would turn up to support a club. It's a question of where would such a club play, if it had a ground would it intend to expand it, what the implications of that are, etcetcetc.

[boris]

Although an interesting talking point, I hope people aren't getting too excited by a fans-owned AFC Oxford concept. By far our best chance of regaining league status and watching football in an atmosphere even remotely ressembling that which we are used to is to rescue something from the present club set-up. However unlikely that seems with the current on-field/off-field situations.

Quite. The point I made (or was trying to make, possibly unsuccessfully) is that an AFC Oxford would only be possible if the current incarnation actually ceased to exist, either by going bankrupt, being franchised to a different location, or with some other eventuality. I certainly wouldn't see it surviving if it was created simply because a few people got hacked off with us being shit, while the Real OUFC continued. That would be totally unsustainable and would be doomed to failure.

Peña, would you consider it too much of a fudge if I countered your points with a &quotwe'll cross that bridge when we come to it&quot response? After all, it worked for Teddy Kennedy.

[GodalmingYellow]

What, even in the Oxon Senior League (which I think is the highest level at which any new club SHOULD start (Step 7)) against OUP &amp Rover Cowley?

THere is an unofficial policy by which clubs emerging from the ashes of folded ones can reappear two steps down the pyramid (ie Southern Premier) but that is by no means a definate, particularly given the level of competition for places at Steps 3&amp4 at the moment (eg. it is not a given that the Hellenic champions will be promoted to the Southern League Div1s as there are only eight slots in across the Southern/Ryman leagues at Step4 to be filled from 10 southern based Step 5 leagues.
In other words, AFCO could easily find themselves starting below a good couple of dozen other 'local' clubs at Hellenic prem &amp Southern League level (inlcuding Oxford City Reserves aka City Nomads) so I question whether the pack mentality would stretch as far as actually watching/funding the new club (as opposed to looking up their results in the OxMail on a Monday).

Of course, if the new club was named Raging Fever rather than AFC Oxford then.........??

Except it wouldn't be step 7. Step 5 is the most common starting point, or step 6 at the very least. It depends on facilities that can be offered, and if we were sharing with Oxford City say, we wouldn't have much of a problem getting a place at step 5. Even Godalming Town got into South &amp West, purely on a re-jigging of the leagues, and their ground has only 200 seats and no other stands.

[GodalmingYellow]

Although an interesting talking point, I hope people aren't getting too excited by a fans-owned AFC Oxford concept. By far our best chance of regaining league status and watching football in an atmosphere even remotely ressembling that which we are used to is to rescue something from the present club set-up. However unlikely that seems with the current on-field/off-field situations.

Quite. The point I made (or was trying to make, possibly unsuccessfully) is that an AFC Oxford would only be possible if the current incarnation actually ceased to exist, either by going bankrupt, being franchised to a different location, or with some other eventuality. I certainly wouldn't see it surviving if it was created simply because a few people got hacked off with us being shit, while the Real OUFC continued. That would be totally unsustainable and would be doomed to failure.

Peña, would you consider it too much of a fudge if I countered your points with a &quotwe'll cross that bridge when we come to it&quot response? After all, it worked for Teddy Kennedy.

I doubt if many if any would support an AFCO whilst OUFC still existed. The question is what if OUFC goes tits up.

[Ascension Ox]

Although an interesting talking point, I hope people aren't getting too excited by a fans-owned AFC Oxford concept. By far our best chance of regaining league status and watching football in an atmosphere even remotely ressembling that which we are used to is to rescue something from the present club set-up. However unlikely that seems with the current on-field/off-field situations.

Quite. The point I made (or was trying to make, possibly unsuccessfully) is that an AFC Oxford would only be possible if the current incarnation actually ceased to exist, either by going bankrupt, being franchised to a different location, or with some other eventuality. I certainly wouldn't see it surviving if it was created simply because a few people got hacked off with us being shit, while the Real OUFC continued. That would be totally unsustainable and would be doomed to failure.

Peña, would you consider it too much of a fudge if I countered your points with a &quotwe'll cross that bridge when we come to it&quot response? After all, it worked for Teddy Kennedy.

I doubt if many if any would support an AFCO whilst OUFC still existed. The question is what if OUFC goes tits up.

Disucssion of 'AFC Oxford' is academic at this stage.

The answer to GY's question to my mind would be a new group of owners - hopefully with a strong supporter element would take on the club and run it prudently. Any new investor would consider taking the hit on administration and take a points deduction. (Why on earth would any new investors want to help Mr M and Mr L out with their loans?) However due consideration of Mr Lenagan's debenture over the assets would need to be factored in.

The overall business proposition here is not a basket case - with good management this is a more than reasonable 'turnaround investment'. But the ground has to be included of course as part of the overall deal.

In agreement with Messrs Boris and GY that a ground zero AFC Oxford option would be stupid. Why pee significant goodwill and history away?


Anyway, once we win on Saturday we will be talking about the playoffs again.

[GodalmingYellow]

Disucssion of 'AFC Oxford' is academic at this stage.

The answer to GY's question to my mind would be a new group of owners - hopefully with a strong supporter element would take on the club and run it prudently. Any new investor would consider taking the hit on administration and take a points deduction. (Why on earth would any new investors want to help Mr M and Mr L out with their loans?) However due consideration of Mr Lenagan's debenture over the assets would need to be factored in.

The overall business proposition here is not a basket case - with good management this is a more than reasonable 'turnaround investment'. But the ground has to be included of course as part of the overall deal.

In agreement with Messrs Boris and GY that a ground zero AFC Oxford option would be stupid. Why pee significant goodwill and history away?


Anyway, once we win on Saturday we will be talking about the playoffs again.

Let's think about the administration option.

Clearly IL will want to try to get as much of his money back as possible.

If he passes the club over to a new owner, who puts the club into administration, either IL loses all his money by agreeing to a write off (the other creditors would be pretty much insignificant to the decision because of the proportion of debt due to IL), or the club is put into receivership and IL claims back what he can (not very much). So IL is unlikely to want the club to be put into administration.

If IL sticks to his spoken word, he will leave the club in no worse a state than when he took it on. So he will be looking for a new owner to stump up about £2m to take over the club, and I would think he will be able to achieve that.

If IL achieves that, whatever happens subsequently, he will lose the rest of his money owed by the club.

So, there would be no point the club being put into administration by a new owner and taking a 10 point deduction, as the debt written off would not change significantly from IL simply writing it off on the takeover, so any new owner to protect themselves from IL taking £2m and then sueing for the balance owed would want it written into a takeover deal that IL writes off the balance.

So I don't see administration and a 10 point deduction as being remotely likely.

We've done the debenture issue to death elsewhere on this baord so I'm not going to comment on that again, other than to say it is not an issue which will affect the outcome.

Therefore, the future options for the club are likely to be (in order of likeliness):

1. Takeover at £2m with IL writing off the balance of his loans.
2. IL remains and buys the stadium and tries to recoup his money that way.
4. IL puts the club into administration and then receivership and AFCO is formed by a fans group.
5. IL hands the club over to fans for £1, writing off his debts.
6. Football is banned by the government to stop the yoofs who are nothing but a bunch of hoolies.

[boris]

I prefer option 3, myself